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Marlin

Futures · Futures · Started Sep 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
615
Win Trades
40.2%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
24.1%

About this strategy

The Marlin Fund brings a mix of systematic and discretionary principles to trading commodities. Largely based on trade signals that are generated via proprietary trend breakout indicators, the trade signals generated are occasionally subjected to a layer of further analysis before a trade is executed. Utilizing a discretionary approach at times to what would otherwise be a fully systematic strategy , provides a level of risk management oversight to account for any upcoming catalysts that may have an adverse impact on Marlin's investment returns.

In essence, the key concept of Marlin is pinpointing when a new price trend is about to commence or when an existing trend is coming to an end. This strategy can be employed across all baskets of commodities but tends to avoid those that are illiquid. Given that Marlin is a trend following strategy, the trades can last a couple of days to a couple of months.

Trend-following Commodities

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20197.511.3-3.8-1.912.9
20208.825.934.316.32.0-6.3-2.1-5.8-7.27.34.8-5.685.8
2021-8.6-15.4-19.18.8-0.96.918.4-12.4-10.51.647.613.914.2
202212.7-1.31.2-2.64.70.90.01.8-6.8-6.9-12.8-10.8
2023-123.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-123.6
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/3/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age85 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades615
# Profitable247
% Profitable40.2%
Avg trade duration5.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJan 08, 2023 - Jan 15, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$2,314
Avg loss$1,719

Ratios

W:L ratio0.90
Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Sortino Ratio-0.62
Calmar Ratio-0.97

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life161.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-188.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)619
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)291

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,719
Avg Win$2,314
# Winners247
Sum Trade PL (losers)$632,732
Sum Trade PL (winners)$571,586
Num Months Winners20
# Losers368
% Winners40.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table41

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7625.70
Avg Position Time (hrs)127.10
Avg Trade Length5.30
Last Trade Ago1329

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.87
Daily leverage (max)108.22

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.15
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.09
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-13.12
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.25
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.29
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.20
SD0.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df32
t0.51
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.48
Sortino ratio0.45
Upside Potential Ratio1.86
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.44
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms15
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.64
Covariance-0.03
r-0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error31
t(b)-1.28
p(b)0.90
t(a)0.70
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.06
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
Mean-0.05
SD0.78
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df32
t-0.11
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio-0.08
Upside Potential Ratio1.12
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.65
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms15
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.78
Covariance-0.02
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.61
DF error31
t(b)-0.86
p(b)0.80
t(a)-0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.31
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.37
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
Mean-0.58
SD0.91
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.64
df726
t-1.07
p0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.54
Sortino ratio-0.68
Upside Potential Ratio2.35
Upside part of mean2.02
Downside part of mean-2.60
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.86
N nonnegative terms353
N negative terms374
N of observations727
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.58
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.91
Covariance-0.02
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.47
Mean Square Error0.82
DF error725
t(b)-1.71
p(b)0.96
t(a)-1.02
p(a)0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)2.70
Jensen alpha (a)-0.56
Mean-3.93
SD5.55
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.71
df726
t-1.18
p0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.47
Sortino ratio-0.71
Upside Potential Ratio0.36
Upside part of mean1.98
Downside part of mean-5.91
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD5.55
N nonnegative terms353
N negative terms374
N of observations727
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion-3.93
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion5.55
Covariance-0.03
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.88
Mean Square Error30.87
DF error725
t(b)-0.63
p(b)0.74
t(a)-1.16
p(a)0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-10.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.66
Treynor index (mean / b)8.09
Jensen alpha (a)-3.88
VaR(95%)0.44
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.51
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-5.67
SD1.96
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.88
df130
t-2.05
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.08
Sortino ratio-2.87
Upside Potential Ratio0.70
Upside part of mean1.38
Downside part of mean-7.05
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD1.97
N nonnegative terms56
N negative terms75
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.08
Mean of criterion-5.67
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.96
Covariance-0.04
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-5.70
Mean Square Error3.85
DF error129
t(b)-0.68
p(b)0.54
t(a)-2.05
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-11.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)14.74
Jensen alpha (a)-5.70
Mean-23.92
SD13.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.83
df130
t-1.30
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.96
Sortino ratio-1.83
Upside Potential Ratio0.10
Upside part of mean1.37
Downside part of mean-25.28
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD13.06
N nonnegative terms56
N negative terms75
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.13
Mean of criterion-23.92
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion13.03
Covariance-0.16
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-24.14
Mean Square Error170.78
DF error129
t(b)-0.45
p(b)0.53
t(a)-1.31
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-9.20
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-60.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha12.44
Treynor index (mean / b)13.91
Jensen alpha (a)-24.14
VaR(95%)0.76
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.82
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.36
Quartile 10.94
Median1.01
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.42
Mean of quarter 10.83
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.24
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.36
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.37
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.45
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.26
Number of observations727
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low34
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high51
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.73
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.26
Median0.44
Quartile 30.57
Maximum0.69
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20.44
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.69
Inter Quartile Range0.31
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.43
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.97
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.31
Expected Shortfall (moments method)10.55
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.34
Median0.56
Quartile 30.78
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.44
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-340816576
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)7
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.07
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-3.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.92
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.22

Trading record

Placed 480 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QHG H3short20Jan 4, 2023Jan 10, 2023($107,673)
KC H3short4Jan 6, 2023Jan 6, 2023($3,482)
BP H3short9Dec 30, 2022Jan 5, 2023$3,978
W H3long3Dec 28, 2022Jan 4, 2023($2,912)
CT H3short6Dec 28, 2022Jan 4, 2023($1,968)
QPL J3short40Dec 30, 2022Jan 4, 2023($29,820)
TN H3short2Dec 28, 2022Dec 30, 2022$47
ES H3short3Dec 29, 2022Dec 30, 2022$4,851
QPL J3short45Dec 29, 2022Dec 30, 2022($5,025)
QHG H3short6Dec 12, 2022Dec 28, 2022$12,877
HE G3short4Nov 30, 2022Dec 27, 2022($7,532)
CT H3short4Nov 30, 2022Dec 27, 2022($7,342)
KC H3long2Nov 30, 2022Dec 12, 2022($3,991)
C H3short3Nov 11, 2022Nov 30, 2022($887)
CC H3long2Nov 11, 2022Nov 30, 2022($346)
QO Z2short2Oct 10, 2022Nov 11, 2022($8,241)
QHG H3long1Nov 7, 2022Nov 9, 2022$2,542
QG F3short1Nov 7, 2022Nov 8, 2022$1,055
LB F3long1Oct 21, 2022Oct 25, 2022($4,848)
LE Z2short2Sep 27, 2022Oct 21, 2022($3,296)
CT Z2short12Sep 6, 2022Oct 5, 2022$18,634
ES Z2short1Oct 3, 2022Oct 4, 2022($3,496)
QO Z2short1Oct 3, 2022Oct 3, 2022($483)
QGC Z2short11Aug 24, 2022Sep 30, 2022$34,092
CT Z2short5Sep 6, 2022Sep 6, 2022($40)
QCL V2short1Sep 2, 2022Sep 6, 2022$1,752
C Z2long1Aug 25, 2022Aug 31, 2022$430
S X2long1Aug 24, 2022Aug 25, 2022($1,233)
QPA U2short1Aug 24, 2022Aug 25, 2022($4,908)
LB U2long1Aug 18, 2022Aug 24, 2022($11,800)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.