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FX ADSUN

Forex · Started Aug 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-4.2%
Max Drawdown
55.2%
Trades
298
Win Trades
83.2%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
14.0%

About this strategy

Strategy based on detecting ranges and take advantage of the laterality of certain moments to enter and catch certain pips. I've been trading for 22 years, creating systems. Not optimized No martingale. No grid. Only one trade opened at same time.

Maximum time open 12 hours. Operations a month on average = 12. Operating more is not earning more, on the contrary. Quality before quantity, and the trades are of the highest quality. It is the best system I have created in my 25 years of trading, and it is the culmination of my career as a systems developer.. Security, perseverance and much study has led me to the best system of my life.

Important: System actualized with best performance since 09/2020

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20198.66.78.83.25.437.3
2020-2.3-9.5-9.73.310.3-30.613.43.010.127.1-10.7-43.9-48.4
20213.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.03.8
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/5/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age86 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades298
# Profitable248
% Profitable83.2%
Avg trade duration7.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown55.2%
drawdown periodNov 05, 2020 - Dec 22, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-4.2%
Avg win$74
Avg loss$348

Ratios

W:L ratio1.06
Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Sortino Ratio-0.19
Calmar Ratio0.22

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.12
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life166.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-197.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-4.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity103.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss75.0%
Chance of 20% account loss54.0%
Chance of 30% account loss24.0%
Chance of 40% account loss7.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated97.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$348
Avg Win$74
# Winners248
Sum Trade PL (losers)$17,406
Sum Trade PL (winners)$18,457
Num Months Winners12
# Losers50
% Winners83.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table86

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)476.95
Avg Position Time (hrs)7.95
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago2062

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)22.46
Daily leverage (max)40.28

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.12
Treynor Index-0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.13
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.09
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-56.05
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.33
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.36
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.13
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df25
t0.52
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Sortino ratio0.46
Upside Potential Ratio1.65
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms14
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error24
t(b)0.64
p(b)0.26
t(a)0.19
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.62
Treynor index (mean / b)0.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.06
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.14
df25
t0.21
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.47
Sortino ratio0.18
Upside Potential Ratio1.35
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms14
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.02
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error24
t(b)0.90
p(b)0.19
t(a)-0.16
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)0.23
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean0.10
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.35
df570
t0.52
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Sortino ratio0.41
Upside Potential Ratio4.69
Upside part of mean1.15
Downside part of mean-1.05
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms214
N negative terms357
N of observations571
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error569
t(b)3.15
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.25
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)0.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.06
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.19
df570
t0.29
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio4.41
Upside part of mean1.14
Downside part of mean-1.08
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms214
N negative terms357
N of observations571
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error569
t(b)3.23
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.04
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)0.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.39
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6753838757314560
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.42112876498971e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations26
Minimum0.69
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.73
Number of observations571
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low57
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high44
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.24
Quartile 10.26
Median0.28
Quartile 30.30
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.24
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.40
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.43
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-400196960
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)47
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.44
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.43
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.42
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 159 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/CAD short100Jan 13, 2021Jan 13, 2021$72
GBP/CAD long100Jan 13, 2021Jan 13, 2021$72
GBP/CAD short100Jan 12, 2021Jan 13, 2021($357)
GBP/CAD short100Jan 11, 2021Jan 11, 2021$72
GBP/CAD long100Jan 8, 2021Jan 11, 2021($165)
GBP/CAD long100Jan 7, 2021Jan 7, 2021$72
GBP/CAD long100Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$72
GBP/CAD short100Jan 6, 2021Jan 6, 2021$72
GBP/CAD long100Jan 5, 2021Jan 5, 2021$64
GBP/CAD short100Jan 5, 2021Jan 5, 2021$72
GBP/CAD short100Jan 4, 2021Jan 4, 2021$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 30, 2020Dec 30, 2020$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 30, 2020Dec 30, 2020$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 29, 2020Dec 30, 2020($394)
GBP/CAD long100Dec 28, 2020Dec 28, 2020$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 23, 2020Dec 23, 2020$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 23, 2020Dec 23, 2020$72
GBP/CAD long100Dec 23, 2020Dec 23, 2020$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 22, 2020Dec 22, 2020$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 22, 2020Dec 22, 2020$72
GBP/CAD long100Dec 22, 2020Dec 22, 2020$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 21, 2020Dec 22, 2020($389)
GBP/CAD short100Dec 21, 2020Dec 21, 2020$72
GBP/CAD long100Dec 18, 2020Dec 20, 2020($650)
GBP/CAD long100Dec 17, 2020Dec 18, 2020($186)
GBP/CAD short100Dec 17, 2020Dec 17, 2020$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 16, 2020Dec 17, 2020($333)
GBP/CAD long100Dec 16, 2020Dec 16, 2020$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 16, 2020Dec 16, 2020$72
GBP/CAD short100Dec 15, 2020Dec 16, 2020($774)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.