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SPODD500

Equity · Stocks · Started Jun 2019

Trades Own Strategy

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.7%
Max Drawdown
41.7%
Trades
157
Win Trades
58.0%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
22.7%

About this strategy

This system is designed for non-marginable accounts such as IRA's and Cash accounts. It works well with traditional mutual funds that trade end of day at NAV too (when traded manually). The goal is to provide a low cost trading system that will eliminate the need for margin, and eliminates the need for expensive auto trade fees while still providing good returns and limited exposure to the market volatility by being in a trade less than 40% of open trading days.
Buys: We adjust equity employed to purchase long or short position in the S&P 500 (3X) without using margin. We are selective and intentional when we place a trade. Trades are placed to execute near the end of the day. Due to C2 limitations a MOC (market on close order) is unavailable so we will use the parked order system to execute at or near the close of the market (15.57 or 15:58 EST). We will try and give you at least 2 hours to place your parked order for those not on auto trade.
Sales: For most of the sales we will close the position the following day at the close of the market but occasionally will hold a trade as long as the odds hold up for as many as 4 consecutive days. We will give you plenty of notice as to when we expect to close a trade. By holding consecutive probability trades, this will help keep brokerage commissions low rather than churning in and out of a position.
Methodology: Our system uses an algorithm that calculates the odds that the S&P will close up or down on the following day. When the odds show a significant chance that the market will close up or down the following day, we place a trade in the direction of that signal the day before. Stops: We recognize the market doesn't always behave in predictable patterns, so in the event the market drifts in the opposite direction of our trade, we monitor the position and if necessary we place a stop at 4.5% of the trade. We do not place stops as soon as we open a trade due to gaps which often backfill. Remember the market can gap down or up and a stop is no way to eliminate market gaps and can even cause you to sell as soon as the market opens at the worst possible price. When a trade gaps against us, we monitor the situation and place stops to prevent additional capital erosion. Sometimes the market may gap in the opposite direction of our trade and then recover throughout the day.
Risks: Overnight Risk, Leveraged ETF risks which are unique, General market directional risks, order execution risks, in the event of catastrophic moves you should refer to the SPXL and or SPXS prospectus' to identify how they handle payouts.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2019-0.32.34.84.02.34.35.725.2
2020-0.66.3-8.12.1-4.71.5-0.7-1.1-1.70.86.60.0-0.4
20210.53.70.53.0-8.2-4.10.9-4.6-7.91.23.08.5-4.6
2022-11.40.2-16.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-25.9
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/28/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age88 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades157
# Profitable91
% Profitable58.0%
Avg trade duration2.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown41.7%
drawdown periodMarch 11, 2020 - March 29, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.7%
Avg win$840
Avg loss$1,160

Ratios

W:L ratio1.01
Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Sortino Ratio-0.39
Calmar Ratio0.00

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.10
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life158.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-171.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status-12.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity71.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss73.0%
Chance of 20% account loss28.0%
Chance of 30% account loss4.5%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?185065
TOS percent10.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,160
Avg Win$840
# Winners91
Sum Trade PL (losers)$76,530
Sum Trade PL (winners)$76,469
Num Months Winners21
# Losers66
% Winners58.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct451

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table88

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3409.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)56.82
Avg Trade Length2.40
Last Trade Ago1626

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.77
Daily leverage (max)3.81

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.33
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.33
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.37
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.22

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.02
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.15
df77
t-0.40
p0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.61
Sortino ratio-0.20
Upside Potential Ratio1.04
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms60
N of observations78
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error76
t(b)1.71
p(b)0.05
t(a)-0.77
p(a)0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.14
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.03
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.21
df77
t-0.54
p0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.56
Sortino ratio-0.26
Upside Potential Ratio0.95
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms60
N of observations78
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error76
t(b)1.91
p(b)0.03
t(a)-0.92
p(a)0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.02
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.24
df1712
t-0.61
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.53
Sortino ratio-0.32
Upside Potential Ratio3.48
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms224
N negative terms1489
N of observations1713
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1711
t(b)5.23
p(b)0.42
t(a)-0.84
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.38
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.29
df1712
t-0.73
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.48
Sortino ratio-0.38
Upside Potential Ratio3.38
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms224
N negative terms1489
N of observations1713
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1711
t(b)5.68
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.94
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6836650558619648
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.06274733003443e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations78
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high19
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations1713
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low231
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high228
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.08
Median0.15
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.15
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.35
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.90
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.95
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-393223872
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)748
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.02
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.10
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 295 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPXS long1500Mar 1, 2022Mar 29, 2022($7,000)
SPXL long300Feb 28, 2022Mar 1, 2022($1,450)
SPXS long1500Feb 25, 2022Feb 28, 2022($1,483)
SPXS long1478Feb 17, 2022Feb 22, 2022$1,647
SPXL long270Jan 24, 2022Jan 25, 2022($1,096)
SPXL long230Jan 14, 2022Jan 18, 2022($1,743)
SPXL long342Jan 4, 2022Jan 6, 2022($3,810)
SPXL long460Dec 22, 2021Dec 23, 2021$1,385
SPXS long3472Dec 16, 2021Dec 17, 2021$1,790
SPXL long462Dec 15, 2021Dec 16, 2021$773
SPXS long1624Nov 29, 2021Dec 1, 2021$2,653
SPXS long1553Oct 6, 2021Oct 8, 2021($758)
SPXL long328Oct 4, 2021Oct 6, 2021$1,568
SPXS long2171Sep 21, 2021Sep 23, 2021($2,708)
SPXL long438Sep 15, 2021Sep 17, 2021($1,662)
SPXL long479Aug 30, 2021Aug 31, 2021($142)
SPXS long2400Aug 27, 2021Aug 30, 2021($737)
SPXL long427Aug 13, 2021Aug 20, 2021($708)
SPXS long2400Aug 10, 2021Aug 12, 2021($977)
SPXS long2315Jul 27, 2021Jul 28, 2021($86)
SPXS long2250Jul 20, 2021Jul 23, 2021($3,043)
SPXL long510Jul 19, 2021Jul 20, 2021$2,704
SPXS long2300Jul 14, 2021Jul 15, 2021$524
SPXL long460Jul 12, 2021Jul 14, 2021($348)
SPXL long500Jul 6, 2021Jul 9, 2021$951
SPXS long2088Jun 22, 2021Jun 25, 2021($1,769)
SPXL long82Jun 14, 2021Jun 17, 2021($167)
SPXS long2070Jun 8, 2021Jun 10, 2021($525)
SPXL long560May 28, 2021Jun 2, 2021$38
SPXL long533May 26, 2021May 27, 2021$428

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.