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US OIL C2 Scalper

Futures · Futures · Started Jun 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.2%
Max Drawdown
18.9%
Trades
335
Win Trades
51.6%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
4.6%

About this strategy

Short Term Scalping Trades on Crude Oil Futures based on 15 min and Hourly Signals.

Short Term Commodities

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20197.78.411.29.7-5.9-8.7-2.819.0
2020-1.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.4
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/10/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$36,450
Age88 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades335
# Profitable173
% Profitable51.6%
Avg trade duration7.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown18.9%
drawdown periodSept 27, 2019 - Jan 17, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)2.2%
Avg win$288
Avg loss$245

Ratios

W:L ratio1.25
Sharpe Ratio0.08
Sortino Ratio0.14
Calmar Ratio1.31

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life163.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-148.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity23.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$245
Avg Win$288
# Winners173
Sum Trade PL (losers)$39,741
Sum Trade PL (winners)$49,737
Num Months Winners4
# Losers162
% Winners51.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table88

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)433.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)7.23
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago2427

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1
Daily leverage (max)2.37

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-0.19

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.13
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.15
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats2
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats8.57
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.33
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.84
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.17
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.79
df15
t0.97
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.52
Sortino ratio2.67
Upside Potential Ratio4.49
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms12
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.74
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.02
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error14
t(b)-0.63
p(b)0.58
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.15
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df15
t0.90
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.46
Sortino ratio2.31
Upside Potential Ratio4.13
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms12
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.01
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error14
t(b)-0.56
p(b)0.57
t(a)1.03
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.15
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.44
df361
t1.70
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.11
Sortino ratio2.82
Upside Potential Ratio8.72
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms90
N negative terms272
N of observations362
Mean of predictor0.76
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error360
t(b)-0.76
p(b)0.78
t(a)1.77
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-14.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.15
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.40
df361
t1.65
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.07
Sortino ratio2.70
Upside Potential Ratio8.59
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms90
N negative terms272
N of observations362
Mean of predictor0.68
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error360
t(b)-0.75
p(b)0.77
t(a)1.72
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-14.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.11
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6805148047245312
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.23470069837321e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.25
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations362
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low67
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high90
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.85
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.13
Quartile 10.13
Median0.13
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.67
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.31
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.51
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-372945952
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)112
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.59
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.01
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.07
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 436 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL G0long1Jan 17, 2020Jan 17, 2020($593)
QCL H0short1Jan 16, 2020Jan 16, 2020($588)
QM G0long1Jan 15, 2020Jan 15, 2020($362)
QM G0short1Jan 14, 2020Jan 14, 2020$217
QM G0short1Jan 14, 2020Jan 14, 2020$80
QM G0short1Jan 13, 2020Jan 13, 2020$213
QM G0short1Jan 9, 2020Jan 12, 2020$380
QM G0short1Jan 9, 2020Jan 9, 2020$205
QM G0long1Jan 8, 2020Jan 8, 2020($333)
QM G0short1Jan 7, 2020Jan 7, 2020($221)
QM G0short1Jan 7, 2020Jan 7, 2020$217
QCL G0short1Jan 6, 2020Jan 6, 2020$432
QM G0short1Jan 3, 2020Jan 3, 2020$230
QM G0long1Jan 2, 2020Jan 2, 2020($304)
QM G0short1Dec 31, 2019Dec 31, 2019($308)
QM G0short1Dec 30, 2019Dec 30, 2019$230
QM G0short2Dec 26, 2019Dec 30, 2019$34
QM G0long1Dec 26, 2019Dec 26, 2019$230
QM G0short1Dec 24, 2019Dec 25, 2019($304)
QM G0short1Dec 23, 2019Dec 24, 2019($296)
QM G0long1Dec 19, 2019Dec 19, 2019$192
QCL G0short1Dec 17, 2019Dec 18, 2019($268)
QM F0short1Dec 16, 2019Dec 17, 2019($308)
QCL F0long1Dec 13, 2019Dec 16, 2019$342
QM F0short1Dec 13, 2019Dec 13, 2019($321)
QM F0short2Dec 12, 2019Dec 13, 2019($204)
QM F0short1Dec 12, 2019Dec 12, 2019($308)
QCL F0short1Dec 11, 2019Dec 11, 2019($258)
QM F0long1Dec 11, 2019Dec 11, 2019($296)
QM F0short1Dec 10, 2019Dec 11, 2019$117

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.