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NEURAL STARK STRATEGY

Futures · Futures · Started Apr 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.9%
Max Drawdown
64.5%
Trades
1532
Win Trades
58.2%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
36.7%

About this strategy

The strategy is looking at trends and specific levels of interest. The investment process is split between two processes short term trading (scalping) and position trading which can provide higher yields. We follow 30 financial and commodity markets in total on the software.

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2019-0.34.25.8-0.9-0.40.08.43.52.625.0
2020-1.32.17.2-1.10.32.12.51.45.6-2.18.2-3.322.9
20214.0-2.63.95.53.12.51.5-0.81.30.5-5.87.121.4
20222.63.42.1-1.1-2.42.07.1-0.42.61.96.0-5.419.3
2023-11.9-13.7-10.3-10.1-18.825.216.2-3.8-3.45.5-3.5-15.5-42.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/30/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age90 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades1532
# Profitable892
% Profitable58.2%
Avg trade duration2.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown64.5%
drawdown periodDec 15, 2022 - May 03, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)5.9%
Avg win$434
Avg loss$548

Ratios

W:L ratio1.10
Sharpe Ratio0.15
Sortino Ratio0.21
Calmar Ratio0.24

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.14
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life159.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-29.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity85.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.1%
Percent Trades Futures0.9%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss72.5%
Chance of 20% account loss39.5%
Chance of 30% account loss20.5%
Chance of 40% account loss6.5%
Chance of 50% account loss2.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)383
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)740
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)550

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$548
Avg Win$434
# Winners892
Sum Trade PL (losers)$350,744
Sum Trade PL (winners)$386,773
Num Months Winners34
# Losers640
% Winners58.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct141

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table90

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3655.67
Avg Position Time (hrs)60.93
Avg Trade Length2.50
Last Trade Ago999

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.86
Daily leverage (max)18.59

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.17
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.12
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.62
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.98
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.81
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats13.40
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.04
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.44
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.11
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.56
df54
t1.23
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio0.79
Upside Potential Ratio2.15
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms20
N of observations55
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error53
t(b)-0.44
p(b)0.67
t(a)1.27
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.09
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df54
t0.99
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.38
Sortino ratio0.61
Upside Potential Ratio1.95
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms20
N of observations55
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error53
t(b)-0.53
p(b)0.70
t(a)1.04
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.12
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df1200
t1.05
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio0.69
Upside Potential Ratio7.02
Upside part of mean1.21
Downside part of mean-1.10
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms614
N negative terms587
N of observations1201
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error1199
t(b)6.26
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.90
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)0.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.09
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.37
df1200
t0.79
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.50
Upside Potential Ratio6.75
Upside part of mean1.20
Downside part of mean-1.11
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms614
N negative terms587
N of observations1201
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error1199
t(b)6.24
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.01
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df130
t0.02
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.80
Sortino ratio0.04
Upside Potential Ratio6.96
Upside part of mean1.37
Downside part of mean-1.36
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)-0.73
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.08
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.10
df130
t-0.07
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.67
Sortino ratio-0.13
Upside Potential Ratio6.69
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-1.38
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)-0.76
p(b)0.54
t(a)-0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.53
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)0.18
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations55
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations1201
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low86
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high69
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations84
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.49
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.22
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-361366944
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)139
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.57
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.22
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.52
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.14
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.05

Trading record

Placed 2128 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QG G4long2Dec 7, 2023Dec 14, 2023($891)
VX F4long2Dec 7, 2023Dec 14, 2023($2,066)
QM G4long7Nov 23, 2023Dec 14, 2023($2,869)
ES H4short1Dec 12, 2023Dec 14, 2023($4,721)
VX Z3long1Nov 8, 2023Dec 12, 2023($3,508)
QM F4long2Nov 8, 2023Nov 16, 2023($241)
W Z3long1Sep 25, 2023Oct 20, 2023$505
VX V3long1Sep 12, 2023Oct 5, 2023$3,092
QG V3long9Jul 27, 2023Sep 26, 2023$1,353
VX U3long1Aug 31, 2023Sep 20, 2023($1,408)
W U3long2Aug 1, 2023Sep 11, 2023($6,566)
MYM U3long7Aug 14, 2023Aug 31, 2023($35)
QM V3long1Aug 28, 2023Aug 30, 2023$530
QM V3long1Aug 23, 2023Aug 27, 2023$1,005
VX V3long2Aug 1, 2023Aug 17, 2023$734
QM U3long3Jul 21, 2023Jul 31, 2023$3,189
QG Q3long5Jun 27, 2023Jul 26, 2023($1,540)
QM Q3long8Jun 20, 2023Jul 19, 2023$7,899
QG Q3long3Jun 26, 2023Jun 27, 2023($287)
QG N3long13May 18, 2023Jun 26, 2023$84
QM N3long5May 19, 2023Jun 16, 2023$598
QM M3long12Apr 14, 2023May 19, 2023($16,246)
QG M3long5Apr 24, 2023May 19, 2023$2,098
QCL N3long1May 3, 2023May 4, 2023$682
GBP/USD long20Mar 23, 2023May 3, 2023$473
EUR/USD long30Mar 23, 2023May 3, 2023$477
MYM M3short5Mar 30, 2023May 2, 2023($178)
YM M3long1Apr 14, 2023Apr 14, 2023$42
QM M3long1Apr 12, 2023Apr 12, 2023$480
QM K3long1Mar 24, 2023Mar 26, 2023$1,242

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.