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NOBSForex

Futures · Forex · Started Apr 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.1%
Max Drawdown
38.4%
Trades
305
Win Trades
40.7%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
11.1%

About this strategy

Hello and thanks for looking at my system. I am a forex trader that follows longer term trends. I typically hold my positions for days or weeks at a time trying to capture larger moves and I do trade my own calls.
I am also posting commentary/charts regarding market sentiment and trades on YouTube (@NoBSForex).
Feel free to contact me with any questions.

Trend-following Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20193.925.9-6.711.38.4-10.0-2.1-0.9-4.622.7
20202.71.7-3.1-13.5-5.30.6-1.5-1.6-0.5-0.72.6-1.1-18.9
2021-0.50.60.9-1.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.2
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/12/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age90 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades305
# Profitable124
% Profitable40.7%
Avg trade duration6.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown38.4%
drawdown periodAug 12, 2019 - Nov 07, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.1%
Avg win$205
Avg loss$120

Ratios

W:L ratio1.17
Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Sortino Ratio-0.22
Calmar Ratio0.20

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.12
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life161.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-164.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity59.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss42.5%
Chance of 20% account loss12.5%
Chance of 30% account loss1.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$120
Avg Win$205
# Winners124
Sum Trade PL (losers)$21,653
Sum Trade PL (winners)$25,434
Num Months Winners10
# Losers181
% Winners40.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table90

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8922.42
Avg Position Time (hrs)148.71
Avg Trade Length6.20
Last Trade Ago1951

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.57
Daily leverage (max)16.63

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.05
Treynor Index0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades10.14
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.95
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats57.95
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats10.47
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.36
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.16
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df26
t0.38
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio0.44
Upside Potential Ratio1.86
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms18
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.03
r-0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error25
t(b)-1.66
p(b)0.94
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.03
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df26
t0.21
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.44
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio1.61
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms18
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.03
r-0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error25
t(b)-1.56
p(b)0.93
t(a)0.66
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.05
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.29
df592
t0.44
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio0.46
Upside Potential Ratio6.03
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms178
N negative terms415
N of observations593
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.01
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error591
t(b)-2.88
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.03
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.21
df592
t0.32
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio0.33
Upside Potential Ratio5.87
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms178
N negative terms415
N of observations593
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.01
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error591
t(b)-2.83
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.52
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.48
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.39
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6728664880250880
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.29748944286337e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.83
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.38
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.22
Number of observations593
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low88
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high85
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.09
Median0.16
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.45
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.80
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-451439488
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)453
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.21
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.47
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.16
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 536 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
USD/JPY long10Jun 11, 2020Apr 30, 2021$172
EUR/NZD short20Jun 3, 2020Nov 23, 2020$537
GBP/NZD short20Jun 3, 2020Jun 8, 2020$221
GBP/USD short20May 18, 2020May 26, 2020($303)
USD/CAD long20May 18, 2020May 26, 2020($165)
GBP/JPY short20May 18, 2020May 26, 2020($173)
USD/JPY long10May 18, 2020May 22, 2020$12
AUD/USD short20May 18, 2020May 20, 2020($146)
NZD/USD short20May 18, 2020May 19, 2020($164)
EUR/JPY short20May 18, 2020May 19, 2020($122)
AUD/JPY short20May 18, 2020May 18, 2020($49)
NZD/JPY short20Apr 21, 2020Apr 30, 2020($151)
NZD/USD short10Apr 21, 2020Apr 22, 2020$73
AUD/JPY short20Apr 21, 2020Apr 21, 2020($70)
GBP/JPY short20Apr 21, 2020Apr 21, 2020$128
NZD/USD short20Apr 16, 2020Apr 17, 2020($184)
GBP/USD short20Apr 16, 2020Apr 16, 2020($121)
NZD/USD short20Apr 13, 2020Apr 13, 2020($62)
AUD/JPY short20Apr 12, 2020Apr 13, 2020($91)
AUD/USD short20Apr 13, 2020Apr 13, 2020($76)
EUR/GBP long20Apr 9, 2020Apr 12, 2020($17)
EUR/JPY long20Apr 9, 2020Apr 12, 2020($12)
USD/CAD short20Apr 9, 2020Apr 12, 2020($33)
GBP/JPY long20Apr 9, 2020Apr 9, 2020($2)
GBP/JPY short20Apr 7, 2020Apr 9, 2020($57)
USD/CAD long40Apr 5, 2020Apr 9, 2020($471)
EUR/JPY short40Apr 5, 2020Apr 9, 2020($186)
GBP/USD short40Apr 5, 2020Apr 9, 2020($434)
EUR/USD short40Apr 5, 2020Apr 9, 2020($244)
AUD/JPY short20Apr 6, 2020Apr 9, 2020($266)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.