Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

Speed Trader

Futures · Started Apr 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.4%
Max Drawdown
59.9%
Trades
59
Win Trades
59.3%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
8.9%

About this strategy

Speed Trader's Futures Program objective is to achieve above average returns with relatively low performance volatility. We use a discretionary trading approach with a blend of systematic and fundamental factors. A few of many fundamental factors include the short-term supply and demand environment, inventory and storage capacity, and oil tanker deliveries. Technically, We use a blend of moving averages, volume and support/resistance determination for entry/exit. Holding periods are short-term from approximately three days to three weeks. Speed Trader attempts to capture short-term movements in asset prices consistent with their daily, weekly and monthly standard deviation. Approximately 90% of trading is devoted futures and futures options, Futures options will be used generally as a hedging mechanism. At times options on listed ETF's will also be used to protect a position. ETF hedging may be used 10% of the time.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201912.816.85.214.38.64.1-8.3-13.4-1.440.4
2020-17.816.8-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.7-0.4-7.6
2021-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.40.0-3.9
2022-0.4-0.7-0.4-0.412.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.010.2
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/8/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age90 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades59
# Profitable35
% Profitable59.3%
Avg trade duration2.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown59.9%
drawdown periodOct 01, 2019 - Feb 19, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)4.4%
Avg win$2,578
Avg loss$2,580

Ratios

W:L ratio1.46
Sharpe Ratio0.19
Sortino Ratio0.39
Calmar Ratio0.53

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life162.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-126.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity33.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.9%
Percent Trades Options0.1%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss57.5%
Chance of 20% account loss23.5%
Chance of 30% account loss8.5%
Chance of 40% account loss1.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,580
Avg Win$2,578
# Winners35
Sum Trade PL (losers)$61,920
Sum Trade PL (winners)$90,228
Num Months Winners8
# Losers24
% Winners59.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table90

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4232.55
Avg Position Time (hrs)70.54
Avg Trade Length2.90
Last Trade Ago1573

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.82
Daily leverage (max)15.16

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.06
Treynor Index-0.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.12
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.33
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.01
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats10.55
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats10.21
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.74
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.14
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.34
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df20
t0.93
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio1.30
Upside Potential Ratio2.52
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms12
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.66
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.56
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance-0.11
r-0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.59
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error19
t(b)-2.01
p(b)0.76
t(a)1.60
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.59
Mean0.23
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df20
t0.64
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio0.75
Upside Potential Ratio1.92
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms12
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance-0.10
r-0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error19
t(b)-2.09
p(b)0.77
t(a)1.28
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean0.29
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df459
t1.08
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.29
Sortino ratio1.81
Upside Potential Ratio7.27
Upside part of mean1.15
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms97
N negative terms363
N of observations460
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.29
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.01
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error458
t(b)-1.85
p(b)0.97
t(a)1.26
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.86
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
Mean0.23
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df459
t0.92
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio1.42
Upside Potential Ratio6.84
Upside part of mean1.11
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms97
N negative terms363
N of observations460
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.01
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error458
t(b)-1.87
p(b)0.97
t(a)1.09
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.84
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.35
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6758113860386816
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.10847962461785e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.69
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.47
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.69
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.47
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.37
Number of observations460
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low100
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high98
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.46
Quartile 10.46
Median0.46
Quartile 30.46
Maximum0.46
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.55
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.36
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-410110336
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)141
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.65
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.28
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.29
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.53
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.29
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 97 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ M2long1May 12, 2022May 12, 2022$2,872
NQ M2long1May 10, 2022May 10, 2022$2,822
NQ M2long1May 9, 2022May 10, 2022$1,812
NQ H0short2Feb 4, 2020Feb 24, 2020$3,014
QQQ2020O235 long20Feb 20, 2020Feb 21, 2020$6,932
NQ H0short1Jan 28, 2020Jan 30, 2020($3,588)
NQ H0short2Jan 9, 2020Jan 21, 2020($7,842)
MNQ H0short2Dec 20, 2019Jan 9, 2020($1,164)
NQ Z9short1Dec 12, 2019Dec 12, 2019$1,741
NQ Z9short2Dec 4, 2019Dec 6, 2019($2,191)
NQ Z9short2Nov 15, 2019Nov 27, 2019($5,635)
QQQ2017M200 long20Nov 4, 2019Nov 12, 2019($1,928)
NQ Z9short2Nov 1, 2019Nov 4, 2019($2,888)
NQ Z9short2Oct 30, 2019Nov 1, 2019($610)
NQ Z9short2Oct 28, 2019Oct 30, 2019$2,241
NQ Z9short2Oct 24, 2019Oct 25, 2019($1,422)
QQQ1925J194 long10Oct 24, 2019Oct 25, 2019($344)
NQ Z9short2Oct 15, 2019Oct 23, 2019$2,364
NQ Z9short2Oct 9, 2019Oct 11, 2019($6,100)
NQ Z9short2Oct 3, 2019Oct 7, 2019($4,662)
NQ Z9long1Oct 2, 2019Oct 2, 2019($1,028)
NQ Z9short1Oct 1, 2019Oct 1, 2019$2,075
NQ Z9short1Sep 25, 2019Sep 27, 2019$2,543
NQ Z9short2Sep 17, 2019Sep 24, 2019$5,359
QQQ1927I193 long10Sep 18, 2019Sep 18, 2019($194)
NQ U9short1Sep 11, 2019Sep 11, 2019($1,600)
NQ U9short1Sep 6, 2019Sep 10, 2019$1,939
NQ U9short2Sep 4, 2019Sep 5, 2019($4,299)
NQ U9short2Aug 29, 2019Aug 30, 2019$2,353
NQ U9short1Aug 27, 2019Aug 28, 2019$1,901

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.