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TL 2 contracts

Futures · Futures · Started Mar 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.0%
Max Drawdown
40.1%
Trades
143
Win Trades
65.0%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
17.6%

About this strategy

A system for trading the S&P 500 using volume, momentum and oscillators. Trading only one contract at a time for small accounts. Can be used as a proxy for other instruments and indices. Discounts available on request. The system uses a discretionary stop loss during particularly volatile times.

Trend-following Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20191.30.81.319.311.310.14.0-0.95.61.767.3
202011.8-2.4-0.10.711.0-4.26.1-3.59.7-15.0-10.210.810.8
20212.5-7.9-1.5-8.9-1.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-16.5
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/11/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,000
Age92 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades143
# Profitable93
% Profitable65.0%
Avg trade duration1.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown40.1%
drawdown periodSept 30, 2020 - May 04, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)6.0%
Avg win$1,257
Avg loss$2,014

Ratios

W:L ratio1.16
Sharpe Ratio0.26
Sortino Ratio0.36
Calmar Ratio0.29

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life177.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-120.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity52.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss69.5%
Chance of 20% account loss38.5%
Chance of 30% account loss25.0%
Chance of 40% account loss11.5%
Chance of 50% account loss3.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,014
Avg Win$1,257
# Winners93
Sum Trade PL (losers)$100,718
Sum Trade PL (winners)$116,870
Num Months Winners16
# Losers50
% Winners65.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table91

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2044.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)34.07
Avg Trade Length1.40
Last Trade Ago1965

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.89
Daily leverage (max)11.01

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.09
Treynor Index0.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.10
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades16.12
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.57
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.68
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats27.71
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.80
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.32
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df71
t1.01
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.21
Sortino ratio0.90
Upside Potential Ratio2.29
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms58
N of observations72
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error70
t(b)1.64
p(b)0.05
t(a)0.61
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.06
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df71
t0.85
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Sortino ratio0.69
Upside Potential Ratio2.08
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms58
N of observations72
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error70
t(b)1.89
p(b)0.03
t(a)0.49
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)0.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.07
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df1585
t0.96
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.19
Sortino ratio0.54
Upside Potential Ratio4.15
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms199
N negative terms1387
N of observations1586
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1584
t(b)3.90
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.78
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.06
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.29
df1585
t0.72
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.09
Sortino ratio0.40
Upside Potential Ratio3.97
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms199
N negative terms1387
N of observations1586
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1584
t(b)3.89
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.57
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6848409642205184
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.5468966422938e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations72
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations1586
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low147
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high199
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.07
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.92
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.25
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-442673376
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)216
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.38
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.01
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.67
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 134 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES M1long2Apr 23, 2021May 5, 2021$634
@ES M1long2Apr 21, 2021Apr 22, 2021($2,341)
@ES M1long2Apr 19, 2021Apr 20, 2021($5,241)
@ES M1long2Apr 13, 2021Apr 13, 2021$1,109
@ES M1long2Mar 26, 2021Apr 1, 2021$5,234
@ES M1long2Mar 24, 2021Mar 24, 2021($3,866)
@ES M1long2Mar 22, 2021Mar 23, 2021($2,966)
@ES M1long2Mar 16, 2021Mar 17, 2021$59
@ES M1long2Mar 15, 2021Mar 15, 2021$1,584
@ES M1long2Mar 12, 2021Mar 12, 2021$1,034
@ES M1long2Mar 12, 2021Mar 12, 2021$1,259
@ES M1long2Mar 10, 2021Mar 10, 2021$934
@ES M1long2Mar 10, 2021Mar 10, 2021$1,834
@ES M1long2Mar 5, 2021Mar 8, 2021$259
@ES M1long2Mar 2, 2021Mar 3, 2021($4,541)
@ES H1long2Feb 24, 2021Feb 25, 2021($2,366)
@ES H1long2Feb 18, 2021Feb 18, 2021($1,916)
@ES H1long2Feb 16, 2021Feb 17, 2021($3,391)
@ES H1long2Feb 10, 2021Feb 12, 2021($41)
@ES H1long2Feb 3, 2021Feb 4, 2021$3,984
@ES H1long2Jan 26, 2021Jan 27, 2021($3,066)
@ES H1long2Jan 25, 2021Jan 25, 2021($3,691)
@ES H1long2Jan 20, 2021Jan 21, 2021$5,134
@ES H1long2Jan 10, 2021Jan 11, 2021($2,541)
@ES H1long2Jan 6, 2021Jan 7, 2021$5,609
@ES H1long2Dec 28, 2020Jan 3, 2021$1,759
@ES H1long2Dec 22, 2020Dec 22, 2020($2,041)
@ES H1long2Dec 18, 2020Dec 20, 2020$59
@ES H1long2Dec 15, 2020Dec 18, 2020$1,409
@ES H1long2Dec 14, 2020Dec 14, 2020($2,066)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.