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VIX tvix

Equity · Futures · Started Mar 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
120.4%
Max Drawdown
51.8%
Trades
601
Win Trades
58.7%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
9.9%

About this strategy

This strategy will only trade Stock-ETFs: TQQQ SQQQ

Trend-following Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201916.719.51.32.3-6.10.8-3.1-1.7-1.55.635.5
202011.10.1-9.177.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.079.2
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/4/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$36,450
Age91 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades601
# Profitable353
% Profitable58.7%
Avg trade duration12.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown51.8%
drawdown periodApril 28, 2020 - April 30, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)120.4%
Avg win$467
Avg loss$376

Ratios

W:L ratio1.77
Sharpe Ratio0.40
Sortino Ratio1.09
Calmar Ratio3.21

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life171.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)147.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)120.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)1.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)15.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.8%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated68.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)723
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)944
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)880

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$376
Avg Win$467
# Winners353
Sum Trade PL (losers)$93,224
Sum Trade PL (winners)$164,999
Num Months Winners9
# Losers248
% Winners58.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table91

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)723.02
Avg Position Time (hrs)12.05
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago2319

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.37
Daily leverage (max)38.96

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta-0.10
Treynor Index-0.34

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades88.71
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.36
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats64.93
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats63.80
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.73
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.37
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.61
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.93
df12
t2.14
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.96
Sortino ratio14.84
Upside Potential Ratio16.03
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms4
N of observations13
Mean of predictor-0.05
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.02
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.64
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error11
t(b)1.17
p(b)0.13
t(a)2.26
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.26
Treynor index (mean / b)1.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.64
Mean0.56
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.95
df12
t2.17
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.99
Sortino ratio13.36
Upside Potential Ratio14.55
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms4
N of observations13
Mean of predictor-0.07
Mean of criterion0.56
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.02
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.59
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error11
t(b)1.19
p(b)0.13
t(a)2.33
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.15
Treynor index (mean / b)1.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.59
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.70
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.14
df300
t2.30
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.98
Sortino ratio3.75
Upside Potential Ratio7.21
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms160
N negative terms141
N of observations301
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.70
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.01
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.68
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error299
t(b)-1.50
p(b)0.93
t(a)2.32
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.31
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.71
Mean0.65
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.01
df300
t2.16
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.85
Sortino ratio3.24
Upside Potential Ratio6.57
Upside part of mean1.31
Downside part of mean-0.67
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms160
N negative terms141
N of observations301
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion0.65
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance-0.01
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.65
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error299
t(b)-1.52
p(b)0.93
t(a)2.17
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.65
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.70
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.46
df130
t1.04
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.23
Sortino ratio2.51
Upside Potential Ratio6.44
Upside part of mean1.80
Downside part of mean-1.10
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion0.70
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance-0.02
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.70
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error129
t(b)-1.16
p(b)0.56
t(a)1.03
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.70
Mean0.59
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.25
df130
t0.89
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.03
Sortino ratio1.97
Upside Potential Ratio5.78
Upside part of mean1.73
Downside part of mean-1.14
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.11
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance-0.02
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.58
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error129
t(b)-1.18
p(b)0.57
t(a)0.87
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.58
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations301
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high29
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.80
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high15
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.43
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.81
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-263772112
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.82
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.80
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)20.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs20.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.50
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.97
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal25.65
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.72
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.85
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.70
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.30

Trading record

Placed 754 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
RTY U0short30Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$16,410
RTY U0long20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($160)
RTY U0long2Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($256)
RTY U0short22Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$7,674
RTY U0short20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$2,440
RTY M0long20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$5,740
RTY U0long20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$4,140
RTY U0long20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($9,160)
RTY U0long20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$6,640
RTY M0long10Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$2,070
RTY M0long20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($60)
RTY M0long20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$2,040
SQQQ long2000Apr 28, 2020Apr 30, 2020($1,074)
RTY M0short18Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$666
RTY M0long18Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$2,016
RTY M0long18Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($1,674)
RTY M0short20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$17,165
RTY M0long20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($6,560)
RTY M0short20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($2,760)
RTY M0long20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($7,360)
RTY M0short20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($2,260)
RTY M0short20Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($110)
NQ M0long8Apr 29, 2020Apr 29, 2020$2,536
NQ M0short10Apr 29, 2020Apr 29, 2020($630)
ES M0long9Apr 29, 2020Apr 29, 2020$7,153
NQ M0short13Apr 28, 2020Apr 29, 2020($7,659)
ES M0long7Apr 29, 2020Apr 29, 2020($5,744)
SQQQ long11500Apr 27, 2020Apr 28, 2020$863
NQ M0long12Apr 28, 2020Apr 28, 2020($13,161)
NQ M0long4Apr 28, 2020Apr 28, 2020$1,088

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.