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Equity · Futures · Started Feb 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
17.8%
Max Drawdown
19.4%
Trades
539
Win Trades
47.1%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
17.4%

About this strategy

This system trade futures in CME, CBOT, NYMEX, COMEX. This is not a day-trading but a trend-trading system. It will follow the long-term trend and entry the trades when the price come back to the trendline, It will not open many trades but less trades only when the entry signals become clear. This system will trade as the requiements of c2star.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20195.64.314.40.81.02.70.8-0.2-4.80.25.032.7
20205.42.410.62.13.4-5.0-3.27.4-12.5-4.510.60.015.1
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/26/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,500
Age92 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades539
# Profitable254
% Profitable47.1%
Avg trade duration14.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown19.4%
drawdown periodJune 02, 2020 - Nov 02, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)17.8%
Avg win$322
Avg loss$182

Ratios

W:L ratio1.58
Sharpe Ratio0.47
Sortino Ratio0.82
Calmar Ratio1.37

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life171.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-6.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)17.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity10.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated59.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)543
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)814
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)656

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$182
Avg Win$322
# Winners254
Sum Trade PL (losers)$51,970
Sum Trade PL (winners)$81,903
Num Months Winners16
# Losers285
% Winners47.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table92

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)896.42
Avg Position Time (hrs)14.94
Avg Trade Length0.60
Last Trade Ago2120

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.65
Daily leverage (max)7.48

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0.45

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.24
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.58
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats21.26
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats16.84
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.29
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.22
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df28
t1.80
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.42
Sortino ratio2.38
Upside Potential Ratio3.61
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms15
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error27
t(b)0.53
p(b)0.30
t(a)1.58
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)2.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.20
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.05
df28
t1.68
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio2.06
Upside Potential Ratio3.27
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms15
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error27
t(b)0.51
p(b)0.31
t(a)1.50
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)2.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.20
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.81
df638
t2.82
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.06
Sortino ratio3.33
Upside Potential Ratio9.93
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms211
N negative terms428
N of observations639
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error637
t(b)1.80
p(b)0.04
t(a)2.74
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)6.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.20
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.76
df638
t2.75
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.02
Sortino ratio3.20
Upside Potential Ratio9.79
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms211
N negative terms428
N of observations639
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error637
t(b)1.64
p(b)0.05
t(a)2.68
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)6.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6819155546210304
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.51884084435001e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations29
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.27
Number of observations639
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low59
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high87
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations28
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.71
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-365186016
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)153
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.75
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.75
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.88
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.70
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.52
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.81
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 709 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
KC Z0long1Sep 11, 2020Nov 19, 2020($3,814)
SB H1long4Sep 9, 2020Sep 9, 2020($794)
S X0long3Aug 18, 2020Aug 28, 2020$4,786
SB V0long3Jul 30, 2020Jul 30, 2020($662)
BD U0long1Jul 30, 2020Jul 30, 2020$415
QCL U0long2Jul 29, 2020Jul 29, 2020($476)
QCL U0long1Jul 29, 2020Jul 29, 2020($168)
EX U0short2Jul 23, 2020Jul 23, 2020($317)
EX U0short2Jul 22, 2020Jul 22, 2020$307
QPL V0long2Jul 20, 2020Jul 20, 2020($21)
CD U0short2Jul 20, 2020Jul 20, 2020($126)
BD U0long2Jul 16, 2020Jul 16, 2020($107)
QCL U0long1Jul 15, 2020Jul 15, 2020$112
QCL U0long1Jul 15, 2020Jul 15, 2020($148)
S Q0long3Jul 14, 2020Jul 15, 2020$772
EU U0long2Jul 13, 2020Jul 14, 2020$263
EX U0long2Jul 9, 2020Jul 9, 2020($16)
QRB U0long1Jul 8, 2020Jul 9, 2020$21
BD U0long2Jul 8, 2020Jul 8, 2020($39)
JY U0long1Jul 8, 2020Jul 8, 2020($21)
SB V0long3Jul 6, 2020Jul 6, 2020($696)
JY U0short2Jul 5, 2020Jul 6, 2020($466)
M2K U0long8Jul 2, 2020Jul 2, 2020($541)
DXM U0long2Jul 2, 2020Jul 2, 2020$2,013
MES U0long5Jul 1, 2020Jul 1, 2020($163)
DXM U0long1Jul 1, 2020Jul 1, 2020($975)
AD U0long2Jul 1, 2020Jul 1, 2020($539)
JY U0short1Jul 1, 2020Jul 1, 2020($208)
M2K U0long3Jun 30, 2020Jul 1, 2020($110)
JY U0short1Jun 30, 2020Jun 30, 2020($146)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.