Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

Tendency Forex

Futures · Forex · Started Feb 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
20.3%
Max Drawdown
23.4%
Trades
2453
Win Trades
61.2%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
26.4%

About this strategy

Based on Elliottwave theory for USD Majors and some cross pairs.
No grid, No martingale.
The strategy is more suitable for clients with large funds.
From 2020, I already reduced the risk and try my best to control the yearly drawdown below 10%.

For 100% scaling it, the recommended Min Balance is $50k.
In this case, the Max Drawdown will be ideally below 20%.
You could adjust it according to your own risk appetite and balance.

To be honest, I use 100% scaling on every $20K balance, but with 1:100 or 1:500 leverage.
I wonder the same leverage is not available for most clients.

Good Luck!

Trend-following Macro / Fundamental

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20190.610.2-4.7-0.74.6-7.8-9.5-4.823.31.715.025.9
20203.6-2.28.122.77.13.91.60.45.0-8.215.85.178.8
20212.71.90.3-2.95.70.70.11.81.90.00.00.012.6
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/11/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$33,264
Age92 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades2453
# Profitable1502
% Profitable61.2%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown23.4%
drawdown periodJuly 15, 2019 - Sept 30, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)20.3%
Avg win$143
Avg loss$158

Ratios

W:L ratio1.43
Sharpe Ratio0.74
Sortino Ratio1.22
Calmar Ratio2.04

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life180.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)70.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)20.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)15.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss16.5%
Chance of 20% account loss6.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$158
Avg Win$143
# Winners1502
Sum Trade PL (losers)$150,178
Sum Trade PL (winners)$214,961
Num Months Winners24
# Losers951
% Winners61.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table91

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1447.80
Avg Position Time (hrs)24.13
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago1804

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)6.33
Daily leverage (max)32.14

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta-0.04
Treynor Index-0.86

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades4.83
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.16
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats72.93
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats53.33
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.51
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.13
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.32
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.44
df39
t2.68
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.56
Sortino ratio4.20
Upside Potential Ratio5.29
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms16
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error38
t(b)1.79
p(b)0.04
t(a)2.28
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)1.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
Mean0.30
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.42
df39
t2.65
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.54
Sortino ratio3.68
Upside Potential Ratio4.75
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms16
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error38
t(b)1.72
p(b)0.05
t(a)2.36
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)1.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.31
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.81
df875
t3.32
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.89
Sortino ratio3.06
Upside Potential Ratio8.59
Upside part of mean0.87
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms385
N negative terms491
N of observations876
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error874
t(b)-2.21
p(b)0.99
t(a)3.42
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.30
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.74
df875
t3.19
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.82
Sortino ratio2.87
Upside Potential Ratio8.37
Upside part of mean0.86
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms385
N negative terms491
N of observations876
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error874
t(b)-2.31
p(b)0.99
t(a)3.28
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6846243368075264
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.97056765507243e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations40
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1.02
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations876
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low75
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high91
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations75
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.66
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-320836896
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)77
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.58
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.15
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.58
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.85
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 3507 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/JPY long50Sep 20, 2021Sep 20, 2021($131)
USD/JPY long100Sep 20, 2021Sep 20, 2021($222)
AUD/NZD long100Sep 20, 2021Sep 20, 2021$270
EUR/CHF short100Sep 17, 2021Sep 20, 2021($28)
EUR/CAD short50Sep 19, 2021Sep 19, 2021$31
EUR/JPY long100Sep 17, 2021Sep 19, 2021$8
EUR/JPY long100Sep 16, 2021Sep 16, 2021$181
AUD/NZD long100Sep 15, 2021Sep 16, 2021$94
USD/JPY long100Sep 16, 2021Sep 16, 2021$14
EUR/JPY long100Sep 16, 2021Sep 16, 2021$132
USD/JPY long300Sep 15, 2021Sep 16, 2021$859
USD/CHF long200Sep 15, 2021Sep 15, 2021$662
USD/JPY long200Sep 12, 2021Sep 15, 2021($774)
USD/JPY short50Sep 10, 2021Sep 10, 2021$37
AUD/USD long50Sep 9, 2021Sep 10, 2021$193
NZD/USD long100Sep 9, 2021Sep 10, 2021$335
NZD/USD short50Sep 9, 2021Sep 9, 2021($6)
USD/JPY long50Sep 9, 2021Sep 9, 2021($63)
USD/CHF long50Sep 9, 2021Sep 9, 2021($67)
USD/CAD short50Sep 7, 2021Sep 9, 2021($191)
EUR/USD long50Sep 7, 2021Sep 9, 2021($70)
NZD/USD long50Sep 7, 2021Sep 9, 2021($14)
USD/JPY short50Sep 8, 2021Sep 9, 2021$75
EUR/CHF short50Sep 6, 2021Sep 6, 2021$90
USD/CHF long50Sep 3, 2021Sep 5, 2021$45
USD/CHF long50Sep 3, 2021Sep 3, 2021$82
EUR/USD short50Sep 2, 2021Sep 3, 2021$15
USD/JPY long100Sep 2, 2021Sep 2, 2021$37
EUR/USD short50Sep 1, 2021Sep 1, 2021($52)
EUR/CHF short50Aug 31, 2021Sep 1, 2021($84)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.