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OPN Energy 8868

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
24.6%
Max Drawdown
67.5%
Trades
1820
Win Trades
31.2%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
16.1%

About this strategy

On this system we trade a positions from % levels from closing month by selected futures. I'm using stops and limits orders. This system a using algo rules and rules of money management. Trading manually. From start of European Session till to the closing of American session.
Best Regards.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201910.241.816.92.3-1.0-3.713.2-5.08.7-0.820.00.6149.0
2020-8.424.722.49.75.2-9.6-1.02.1-3.3-11.56.85.942.5
2021-25.7-39.2-0.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-55.1
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/21/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age93 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades1820
# Profitable567
% Profitable31.2%
Avg trade duration4.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown67.5%
drawdown periodJune 08, 2020 - Feb 18, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)24.6%
Avg win$776
Avg loss$317

Ratios

W:L ratio1.11
Sharpe Ratio0.26
Sortino Ratio0.42
Calmar Ratio0.90

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life184.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)14.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)24.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)13.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity168.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss14.0%
Chance of 20% account loss1.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)391
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)844
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)531

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$317
Avg Win$776
# Winners567
Sum Trade PL (losers)$397,456
Sum Trade PL (winners)$439,770
Num Months Winners15
# Losers1253
% Winners31.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table93

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)279.32
Avg Position Time (hrs)4.66
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago2011

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.63
Daily leverage (max)22.92

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.05
Treynor Index0.34

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-36.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.62
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats15.19
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats34.59
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.19
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.59
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.06
df24
t1.57
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.45
Sortino ratio2.29
Upside Potential Ratio3.77
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms9
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance-0.01
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.64
Mean Square Error0.30
DF error23
t(b)-0.50
p(b)0.69
t(a)1.63
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.64
Mean0.45
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df24
t1.27
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio1.52
Upside Potential Ratio2.95
Upside part of mean0.87
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms9
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance-0.01
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.50
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error23
t(b)-0.58
p(b)0.71
t(a)1.36
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.50
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean0.50
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.51
df547
t2.19
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.87
Sortino ratio2.81
Upside Potential Ratio10.26
Upside part of mean1.82
Downside part of mean-1.33
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms224
N negative terms324
N of observations548
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.37
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error546
t(b)0.77
p(b)0.22
t(a)2.15
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.94
Treynor index (mean / b)11.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
Mean0.45
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.36
df547
t1.98
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.72
Sortino ratio2.42
Upside Potential Ratio9.71
Upside part of mean1.79
Downside part of mean-1.34
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms224
N negative terms324
N of observations548
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error546
t(b)0.63
p(b)0.26
t(a)1.95
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)13.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-1.04
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.32
df130
t-2.36
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-6.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-6.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Sortino ratio-3.61
Upside Potential Ratio2.85
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-1.85
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms93
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-1.04
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.05
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error129
t(b)0.67
p(b)0.46
t(a)-2.40
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.12
Jensen alpha (a)-1.05
Mean-1.09
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.36
df130
t-2.39
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-6.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-6.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.56
Sortino ratio-3.62
Upside Potential Ratio2.69
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-1.90
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms93
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-1.09
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.11
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error129
t(b)0.66
p(b)0.46
t(a)-2.42
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.53
Jensen alpha (a)-1.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations25
Minimum0.70
Quartile 10.97
Median1.04
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.52
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.25
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.70
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.52
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.97
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)4.45
Number of observations548
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high32
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.67
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.88
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.07
Median0.08
Quartile 30.26
Maximum0.44
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.44
Inter Quartile Range0.19
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations33
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.26
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.46
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.46
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-281871072
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)255
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.82
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.61
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.63
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.81
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.61
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.43
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.51
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.82
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.65
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-14.82

Trading record

Placed 3374 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QNG J1short1Mar 1, 2021Mar 2, 2021($158)
QNG J1short1Mar 1, 2021Mar 1, 2021($28)
QNG J1long1Mar 1, 2021Mar 1, 2021($38)
QSI K1short1Feb 26, 2021Feb 26, 2021$2,892
QNG H1long8Feb 18, 2021Feb 19, 2021($15,064)
QNG H1long4Feb 17, 2021Feb 17, 2021($1,152)
QGC J1long1Feb 16, 2021Feb 16, 2021($558)
QGC J1short1Feb 11, 2021Feb 12, 2021$2,382
QNG H1short2Feb 12, 2021Feb 12, 2021($846)
QCL H1short2Feb 11, 2021Feb 12, 2021($776)
QSI H1short1Feb 11, 2021Feb 12, 2021($583)
QCL H1long2Feb 11, 2021Feb 11, 2021($636)
QSI H1short1Feb 11, 2021Feb 11, 2021($508)
QCL H1short2Feb 11, 2021Feb 11, 2021($636)
QNG H1short2Feb 11, 2021Feb 11, 2021($376)
QGC J1short1Feb 8, 2021Feb 9, 2021($708)
QGC J1short1Feb 8, 2021Feb 8, 2021($388)
QGC J1short2Feb 3, 2021Feb 3, 2021($816)
QSI H1short1Feb 3, 2021Feb 3, 2021($633)
QGC J1long6Jan 29, 2021Feb 2, 2021($6,308)
QCL H1long4Jan 29, 2021Feb 1, 2021($1,132)
QSI H1long1Jan 29, 2021Jan 29, 2021$1,367
QGC J1long3Jan 28, 2021Jan 28, 2021($4,944)
QCL H1short1Jan 28, 2021Jan 28, 2021($428)
QSI H1short1Jan 28, 2021Jan 28, 2021($833)
QGC J1short1Jan 28, 2021Jan 28, 2021($638)
QCL H1long1Jan 27, 2021Jan 27, 2021($308)
QCL H1short1Jan 27, 2021Jan 27, 2021$552
QSI H1long1Jan 27, 2021Jan 27, 2021($658)
QGC G1long1Jan 27, 2021Jan 27, 2021($668)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.