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Stock dow

Equity · Stocks, Futures · Started Dec 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
76.9%
Max Drawdown
21.3%
Trades
691
Win Trades
64.3%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
22.6%

About this strategy

mainly trade Stock and ETF

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20181.91.9
20194.019.433.926.8-5.724.25.66.32.2-2.9-0.90.6174.2
20201.51.61.01.50.6-8.06.71.00.619.5-0.2-0.226.1
202110.216.5-20.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.02.4
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/23/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,793
Age94 months
What it tradesStocks, Futures
# Trades691
# Profitable444
% Profitable64.3%
Avg trade duration2.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown21.3%
drawdown periodFeb 25, 2021 - March 04, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)76.9%
Avg win$340
Avg loss$343

Ratios

W:L ratio1.78
Sharpe Ratio1.05
Sortino Ratio1.94
Calmar Ratio3.85

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life214.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)194.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)76.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.8%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)20.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity27.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.5%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.5%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated48.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)931
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)651

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$343
Avg Win$340
# Winners444
Sum Trade PL (losers)$84,817
Sum Trade PL (winners)$151,098
Num Months Winners21
# Losers247
% Winners64.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct30

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table93

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2839.58
Avg Position Time (hrs)47.33
Avg Trade Length2
Last Trade Ago2005

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.77
Daily leverage (max)27.88

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta0
Treynor Index-17.32

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.90
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.44
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats72.29
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats48.25
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.76
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.38
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.70
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.81
df25
t2.74
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.23
Sortino ratio11.62
Upside Potential Ratio12.85
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms6
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.70
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.67
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error24
t(b)0.28
p(b)0.39
t(a)2.46
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.24
Treynor index (mean / b)6.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.67
Mean0.62
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.87
df25
t2.84
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.30
Sortino ratio10.08
Upside Potential Ratio11.30
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms6
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.62
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.60
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error24
t(b)0.33
p(b)0.37
t(a)2.57
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.09
Treynor index (mean / b)5.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.60
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.64
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.01
df570
t4.46
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.35
Sortino ratio6.11
Upside Potential Ratio10.72
Upside part of mean1.13
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms246
N negative terms325
N of observations571
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.64
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.50
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error569
t(b)-0.50
p(b)0.69
t(a)4.47
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)-36.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.65
Mean0.62
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.95
df570
t4.36
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.29
Sortino ratio5.76
Upside Potential Ratio10.33
Upside part of mean1.11
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms246
N negative terms325
N of observations571
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.62
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.62
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error569
t(b)-0.47
p(b)0.68
t(a)4.37
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.91
Treynor index (mean / b)-38.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.62
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.36
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.37
df130
t0.98
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.15
Sortino ratio2.62
Upside Potential Ratio7.04
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-0.61
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms103
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)0.59
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.89
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.08
Treynor index (mean / b)4.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
Mean0.33
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.27
df130
t0.90
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.04
Sortino ratio2.32
Upside Potential Ratio6.70
Upside part of mean0.95
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms103
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)0.61
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.82
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.03
Treynor index (mean / b)3.95
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations26
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.01
Median1.03
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.46
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations571
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low56
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high91
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.73
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low31
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high32
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations46
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.49
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.28
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-303640480
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)7
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.92
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs12.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.05
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.43
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.91
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs16.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal37.86
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.43
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.49
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.44
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.76

Trading record

Placed 839 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
YINN long5000Mar 3, 2021Mar 4, 2021($11,305)
PFE long600Jan 12, 2021Mar 4, 2021($678)
SQQQ long9000Mar 3, 2021Mar 3, 2021($668)
BABA long1200Feb 19, 2021Mar 3, 2021($10,510)
SQQQ long10000Feb 25, 2021Mar 1, 2021($4,118)
RTY H1short10Feb 25, 2021Feb 25, 2021$16,570
UPRO long500Feb 24, 2021Feb 25, 2021$110
IQ long1000Feb 19, 2021Feb 24, 2021($253)
SINA long500Feb 19, 2021Feb 23, 2021($10)
GE long1000Feb 19, 2021Feb 23, 2021$615
YINN long100Feb 11, 2021Feb 16, 2021$19
BABA long100Feb 11, 2021Feb 16, 2021$235
BABA long200Feb 10, 2021Feb 11, 2021$682
YINN long500Feb 10, 2021Feb 11, 2021$696
YINN long1500Jan 26, 2021Feb 10, 2021$514
BABA long100Feb 2, 2021Feb 10, 2021$182
WDC long200Feb 2, 2021Feb 10, 2021$399
AMRN long500Feb 2, 2021Feb 8, 2021$2
YINN long1000Jan 11, 2021Jan 25, 2021$6,985
UPRO long500Jan 5, 2021Jan 11, 2021$2,090
SPXU long10000Jan 4, 2021Jan 4, 2021$813
UPRO long200Jan 4, 2021Jan 4, 2021($277)
RTY Z0long1Oct 8, 2020Oct 8, 2020$62
RTY Z0long4Oct 7, 2020Oct 8, 2020$3,858
RTY Z0short2Sep 23, 2020Sep 24, 2020$204
QCL Z0short1Sep 4, 2020Sep 6, 2020$1,162
ES U0long4Sep 3, 2020Sep 3, 2020($3,182)
ES U0long1Sep 3, 2020Sep 3, 2020($358)
ES U0long1Aug 3, 2020Aug 3, 2020$217
ES U0long1Jul 20, 2020Jul 20, 2020$42

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.