Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

HistoryRepeatsItself

Futures · Futures, Forex · Started Dec 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-70.5%
Max Drawdown
97.7%
Trades
265
Win Trades
78.9%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
13.0%

About this strategy

What I trade?
=============
(Important Update: HRI system has been declared as futures-only strategy starting with March 21, 2020)

Futures:
I have a broad interest in index and commodity futures. Dow Jones, S&P and DAX are the main indexes I usually follow along with a few more European indices plus Russia, Japan and of course China. As to the commodities side, I'm interested in trading both agro-commodities (mainly COFFEE, COCOA and WHEAT) as well as precious & industrial metals (GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, COPPER, ZINC, ALUMINIUM etc.). I'm not very much into oil markets but if my system detects a "winner-trade", sometimes I trade oil futures.

How I trade?
============

The style can be summarized as fairly classic and TA (technical analysis) oriented, although feedback from global and local economic sources are always being taken into account during the decision process. The system is very opportunistic (based on multi-timeframe level TA) so that positions can be closed and re-opened frequently. I usually try to compose a portfolio that has a variety among the instruments in various levels and usually carry positions which can be divided into short, mid-term and long-term positions. While waiting for more advantageous prices for long-term positions system can exploit some intra-day opportunities.


When I trade?
============

I have a full-time academic position in a state university in Turkey, I'm a Turkish citizen and I live in Turkey . I have some advantages in this regard, as I usually get already out of office and be at my home office when markets open in US. Usually, I'm on-and-off online during the whole trading day. You can reach me at any time of the day for questions and I always try my best to return as quickly as possible.

Where I trade?
==============

I have also some disadvantages because I live in Turkey. I can't open an US brokerage account and as a result I can't apply for TOS certificate for my system. I have an account at an European brokerage firm's London branch, where Turkish authorities used to allow Turkish citizens to open account at foreign brokers back then. I'm sorry for not providing TOS but alas, things got worse here :(

FAQ
==============
Q1) "Why has that big draw-down occurred during the first months of your system?"

A1) I'm totally aware that my system shows an non-negligible DD during the first months of its life. The main reason for such a big DD occurred that I wasn't maintaining the system back then, at all. I had no subscribers and my perspective at trading on C2 has changed dramatically since I realized that I need to keep a good record of trades compared to the first times I started this strategy. If I had the chance to go back in time I would totally close my account during the times when I had no time to maintaining it and re-open when I found that time. Currently, I have developed the self-determination in the favor of being a disciplined and well-focused C2 strategy provider so that I can easily assure you that it won't happen again.

Q2) "Was it a one-time thing or can it occur again?"

A2) Yes it was only a one time thing. No, it can't happen again as I'm actively maintaining my system and even in the worst case scenarios there are stop-losses points for every position I open which were not existing back then.

Q3) "Was it due to your system's dynamics or nature?/ Can this system cause this big DDs all the time?"

A3) No, it was not caused by my system's nature. As I have stated above, it was just because I wasn't actively maintaining the system. Moreover, the system currently running under this same brand name is not the same one running back then.

Q4) "Is your system completely auto or manual or what?"

A4) The "HistoryRepeatsItself" system is manual as it depends on signals generated by a combination of TA indicators in a platform of my choice. I manually enter the orders here once I take signals from my custom combination of indicators.

Q5) "Are you a fundamental or technical trader?"

A5) One would call me technical -even a quant sort of- trader as I'm an academics on quantitative methods myself and very much related with computer programming and trading interrelation for long years even before the hype started on algorithmic and HFC trading. But my current system here is an uncomplicated one which merely depends on technical analysis patterns although I'm constantly refreshing my decision paradigms with macroeconomic and financial news.

Q6) "What are your purposes as a trader?"

A6) My current purpose as a trader is to make enough money to make a living on trading without need for an academic full time position in my case. I'm taking my C2 trading record very seriously since I made this decision.

Q7) "If your system is so great why are you on C2?"

A7) Unfortunately, I haven't got enough capital like most of the traders on this platform. Otherwise, most probably I wouldn't be here and just minding my own business.

Commodities Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20180.50.5
2019-3.9-24.1-4.3-9.49.135.018.234.81.232.1-1.30.897.3
2020-10.723.821.49.5-12.9-6.82.6-0.50.0-14.4-8.4-93.0
2021-9.2-10.1-1.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-19.7
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/16/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$12,000
Age94 months
What it tradesFutures, Forex
# Trades265
# Profitable209
% Profitable78.9%
Avg trade duration5.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown97.7%
drawdown periodApril 14, 2020 - Sept 18, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-70.5%
Avg win$259
Avg loss$1,090

Ratios

W:L ratio0.89
Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Sortino Ratio-0.24
Calmar Ratio-0.35

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life192.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-143.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-70.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.7%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-10.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2657.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.3%
Percent Trades Futures0.6%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.1%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss66.0%
Chance of 20% account loss35.5%
Chance of 30% account loss14.0%
Chance of 40% account loss8.0%
Chance of 50% account loss1.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)445
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)604
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)294

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,090
Avg Win$259
# Winners209
Sum Trade PL (losers)$61,013
Sum Trade PL (winners)$54,131
Num Months Winners12
# Losers56
% Winners78.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table93

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7337
Avg Position Time (hrs)122.28
Avg Trade Length5.10
Last Trade Ago2005

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.98
Daily leverage (max)12.80

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-3.44

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.54
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.65
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats78.03
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats51.75
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.71
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.74
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.80
SD0.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df19
t1.39
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.59
Sortino ratio2.74
Upside Potential Ratio4.50
Upside part of mean1.31
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.70
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms8
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.80
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.74
Covariance-0.07
r-0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.09
Mean Square Error0.46
DF error18
t(b)-2.20
p(b)0.73
t(a)2.02
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.47
Jensen alpha (a)1.09
Mean0.56
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.82
df19
t1.10
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.36
Sortino ratio1.73
Upside Potential Ratio3.46
Upside part of mean1.12
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.58
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms8
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.56
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance-0.06
r-0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.76
Mean Square Error0.36
DF error18
t(b)-2.15
p(b)0.73
t(a)1.60
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.76
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.76
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
Mean0.16
SD0.80
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.20
df440
t0.26
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.71
Sortino ratio0.23
Upside Potential Ratio4.07
Upside part of mean2.86
Downside part of mean-2.70
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.70
N nonnegative terms217
N negative terms224
N of observations441
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.80
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.64
DF error439
t(b)0.98
p(b)0.16
t(a)0.22
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)1.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean-0.53
SD1.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.36
df440
t-0.46
p0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Sortino ratio-0.37
Upside Potential Ratio1.94
Upside part of mean2.79
Downside part of mean-3.33
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD1.44
N nonnegative terms217
N negative terms224
N of observations441
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-0.53
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion1.48
Covariance0.03
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.59
Mean Square Error2.20
DF error439
t(b)1.24
p(b)0.11
t(a)-0.52
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.66
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.74
Jensen alpha (a)-0.59
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-1.37
SD1.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.11
df130
t-0.79
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.67
Sortino ratio-1.14
Upside Potential Ratio1.34
Upside part of mean1.61
Downside part of mean-2.98
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD1.20
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms86
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.87
Mean of criterion-1.37
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion1.23
Covariance0.05
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.73
Mean Square Error1.51
DF error129
t(b)1.28
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.98
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.75
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.35
Jensen alpha (a)-1.73
Mean-3.40
SD2.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.30
df130
t-0.92
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.48
Sortino ratio-1.31
Upside Potential Ratio0.61
Upside part of mean1.58
Downside part of mean-4.98
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD2.59
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms86
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.81
Mean of criterion-3.40
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion2.61
Covariance0.10
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.90
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.13
Mean Square Error6.75
DF error129
t(b)1.32
p(b)0.43
t(a)-1.11
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.45
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-11.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.77
Jensen alpha (a)-4.13
VaR(95%)0.24
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations20
Minimum0.75
Quartile 10.95
Median1.03
Quartile 31.12
Maximum1.55
Mean of quarter 10.84
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.36
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.49
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.76
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.26
Number of observations441
Minimum0.16
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high28
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.16
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.84
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.71
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.19
Quartile 10.20
Median0.20
Quartile 30.29
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.19
Mean of quarter 20.20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.38
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.87
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.37
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.67
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.63
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.83
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.56
Expected Shortfall (regression method)3.61
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.26
Maximum0.87
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.87
Inter Quartile Range0.25
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.87
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-402284928
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)157
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.80
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.34
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.46
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.28
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.63
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.97
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.32

Trading record

Placed 232 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QG Q0long6Jun 8, 2020Mar 4, 2021($27,748)
SB N0short2May 29, 2020May 29, 2020($262)
QI N0short1May 28, 2020May 28, 2020$55
CC N0short1May 27, 2020May 27, 2020($78)
MYM M0short9May 15, 2020May 26, 2020($6,580)
YM M0long2May 25, 2020May 26, 2020$2,437
YM M0long2May 20, 2020May 20, 2020($276)
MYM M0short1May 15, 2020May 15, 2020$21
QI N0short1May 15, 2020May 15, 2020($239)
QI N0short1May 14, 2020May 14, 2020($133)
QG M0long2May 14, 2020May 14, 2020$159
QI N0short1May 14, 2020May 14, 2020($39)
YM M0short1May 13, 2020May 13, 2020$192
W N0long2May 13, 2020May 13, 2020($966)
QO M0long2May 11, 2020May 12, 2020$57
QO M0long2May 11, 2020May 11, 2020$32
QO M0long1May 11, 2020May 11, 2020$37
QI N0short1May 11, 2020May 11, 2020$17
CC K0long1Apr 29, 2020May 11, 2020($218)
QO M0long2May 11, 2020May 11, 2020$104
QI N0short1May 8, 2020May 8, 2020$315
QI N0short1May 8, 2020May 8, 2020($60)
W N0long2May 4, 2020May 8, 2020$367
SB N0short2May 5, 2020May 6, 2020$62
QI N0short1May 3, 2020May 3, 2020$180
KC N0short1Apr 29, 2020Apr 29, 2020$367
QO M0long2Apr 27, 2020Apr 27, 2020($516)
YM M0short1Apr 24, 2020Apr 24, 2020($548)
YM M0short1Apr 23, 2020Apr 24, 2020($63)
YM M0short1Apr 23, 2020Apr 23, 2020$117

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.