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EScalade

Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.7%
Max Drawdown
17.2%
Trades
35
Win Trades
80.0%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
2.1%

About this strategy

https://youtu.be/dYYTphJmAk8

Trend-following Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201818.722.6-15.522.9
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/29/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age95 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades35
# Profitable28
% Profitable80.0%
Avg trade duration8.1 minutes
Max peak-to-valley drawdown17.2%
drawdown periodNov 27, 2018 - Dec 17, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)2.7%
Avg win$138
Avg loss$314

Ratios

W:L ratio1.75
Sharpe Ratio0.07
Sortino Ratio0.14
Calmar Ratio1.42

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life187.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-169.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity20.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss5.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated91.4%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$314
Avg Win$138
# Winners28
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,200
Sum Trade PL (winners)$3,860
Num Months Winners2
# Losers7
% Winners80.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table95

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8.13
Avg Position Time (hrs)0.14
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago2813

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.14

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.28
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats2.89
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.58
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.69
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df13
t0.58
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.33
Sortino ratio1.86
Upside Potential Ratio2.97
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms13
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.89
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error12
t(b)0.15
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.40
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.34
Treynor index (mean / b)5.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.17
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df13
t0.47
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio1.17
Upside Potential Ratio2.27
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms13
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.78
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.02
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error12
t(b)0.34
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.22
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.77
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.17
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.14
df314
t1.25
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.93
Sortino ratio2.33
Upside Potential Ratio4.45
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms298
N of observations315
Mean of predictor0.93
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error313
t(b)0.33
p(b)0.37
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)24.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.16
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.09
df314
t1.20
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.88
Sortino ratio2.13
Upside Potential Ratio4.24
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms298
N of observations315
Mean of predictor0.84
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error313
t(b)0.36
p(b)0.36
t(a)1.14
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)22.31
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.35
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.26
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6743785849487360
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.59262885533884e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.46
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.46
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations315
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-86.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)-3.40282346638529e+38
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.14
Quartile 10.14
Median0.14
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.04
Median0.07
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-523599840
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)20
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.53
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.11
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.55
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 48 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES H9short1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($407)
ES Z8long1Dec 6, 2018Dec 6, 2018($396)
ES Z8short1Dec 6, 2018Dec 6, 2018($361)
ES Z8short1Dec 6, 2018Dec 6, 2018($18)
ES Z8short1Dec 3, 2018Dec 3, 2018$54
ES Z8long1Nov 27, 2018Nov 27, 2018$26
ES Z8short1Nov 19, 2018Nov 19, 2018$105
ES Z8long1Nov 16, 2018Nov 16, 2018$46
ES Z8short1Nov 16, 2018Nov 16, 2018$131
ES Z8long1Nov 14, 2018Nov 14, 2018$124
ES Z8short1Nov 14, 2018Nov 14, 2018($314)
ES Z8short1Nov 14, 2018Nov 14, 2018$188
ES Z8short1Nov 13, 2018Nov 13, 2018$135
ES Z8long1Nov 13, 2018Nov 13, 2018$207
ES Z8short1Nov 12, 2018Nov 12, 2018$121
ES Z8short1Nov 12, 2018Nov 12, 2018$217
ES Z8short1Nov 8, 2018Nov 8, 2018$123
ES Z8long1Nov 2, 2018Nov 2, 2018$161
ES Z8short1Nov 2, 2018Nov 2, 2018($414)
ES Z8short1Nov 2, 2018Nov 2, 2018$92
ES Z8short1Nov 2, 2018Nov 2, 2018$342
ES Z8short1Nov 2, 2018Nov 2, 2018$167
ES Z8long1Oct 31, 2018Oct 31, 2018$192
ES Z8long1Oct 31, 2018Oct 31, 2018$155
ES Z8short1Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018($346)
ES Z8short1Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018$105
ES Z8long1Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018$105
ES Z8short1Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018$105
ES Z8long1Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018$105
ES Z8short1Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018$105

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.