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Futures NQ Trader

Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
14.4%
Max Drawdown
42.6%
Trades
448
Win Trades
83.0%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
15.6%

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20188.06.21.216.1
20193.32.63.60.41.13.00.4-17.6-3.2-3.40.3-0.1-11.0
2020-0.1-0.133.87.33.32.10.00.00.00.00.00.051.3
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/15/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age96 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades448
# Profitable372
% Profitable83.0%
Avg trade duration11.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown42.6%
drawdown periodJuly 24, 2019 - March 22, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)14.4%
Avg win$222
Avg loss$651

Ratios

W:L ratio1.67
Sharpe Ratio0.25
Sortino Ratio0.49
Calmar Ratio0.66

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.17
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life176.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-9.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)14.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss47.0%
Chance of 20% account loss16.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$651
Avg Win$222
# Winners372
Sum Trade PL (losers)$49,512
Sum Trade PL (winners)$82,507
Num Months Winners15
# Losers76
% Winners83.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table96

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)682.33
Avg Position Time (hrs)11.37
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago2275

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.06
Daily leverage (max)11.49

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.14
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.51
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)4.57
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats70
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats83.26
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.22
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.28
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.19
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.89
df30
t1.47
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio2.17
Upside Potential Ratio3.40
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms18
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.02
r-0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error29
t(b)-2.23
p(b)0.98
t(a)2.09
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.51
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
Mean0.17
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.84
df30
t1.39
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.08
Sortino ratio1.85
Upside Potential Ratio3.06
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms18
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.02
r-0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error29
t(b)-2.33
p(b)0.99
t(a)1.95
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.19
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df692
t1.32
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio1.71
Upside Potential Ratio5.26
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms219
N negative terms474
N of observations693
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.02
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error691
t(b)7.60
p(b)0
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)0.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.16
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75
df692
t1.22
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio1.45
Upside Potential Ratio4.96
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms219
N negative terms474
N of observations693
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error691
t(b)7.35
p(b)0
t(a)0.97
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)0.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6821417383362560
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.27354184081831e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations31
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations693
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low79
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high100
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.39
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.06
Median0.11
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.67
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.27
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.86
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-292586880
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)242
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.25
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.02
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.24
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.25
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.78
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.88
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 564 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ U0short1Jun 16, 2020Jun 16, 2020$107
NQ U0long2Jun 11, 2020Jun 15, 2020$29
NQ M0long1Jun 10, 2020Jun 10, 2020$142
NQ M0long1Jun 9, 2020Jun 9, 2020$117
NQ M0long2Jun 8, 2020Jun 8, 2020$134
NQ M0long1Jun 5, 2020Jun 5, 2020$457
NQ M0long1Jun 4, 2020Jun 4, 2020$172
NQ M0long1Jun 3, 2020Jun 3, 2020$197
NQ M0long2Jun 2, 2020Jun 2, 2020$164
NQ M0long1Jun 1, 2020Jun 1, 2020$97
NQ M0long1May 31, 2020May 31, 2020$77
NQ M0long1May 26, 2020May 26, 2020$262
NQ M0long2May 21, 2020May 21, 2020$44
NQ M0long1May 19, 2020May 19, 2020$267
NQ M0short1May 18, 2020May 18, 2020$167
NQ M0long1May 14, 2020May 14, 2020$332
NQ M0long1May 13, 2020May 13, 2020$182
NQ M0short1May 12, 2020May 12, 2020$37
NQ M0short1May 10, 2020May 10, 2020$107
NQ M0long1May 8, 2020May 8, 2020$152
NQ M0long1May 6, 2020May 6, 2020$132
NQ M0long1May 3, 2020May 3, 2020$197
NQ M0long1Apr 30, 2020May 1, 2020$597
NQ M0long1Apr 27, 2020Apr 27, 2020$167
NQ M0long1Apr 24, 2020Apr 24, 2020$177
NQ M0long1Apr 23, 2020Apr 23, 2020$112
NQ M0long2Apr 21, 2020Apr 21, 2020$54
NQ M0long1Apr 19, 2020Apr 19, 2020$217
NQ M0long1Apr 17, 2020Apr 17, 2020$177
NQ M0long1Apr 15, 2020Apr 15, 2020$182

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.