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ADAPTNN

Futures · Futures · Started Sep 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.6%
Max Drawdown
55.3%
Trades
96
Win Trades
78.1%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
5.3%

About this strategy

The strategy is generated by a complex algorithm based on genetic programming and a neural network for pattern identification.
The algorithm optimizes the strategy every night and generates on average one trade per day with a contract but it is possible to operate with several contracts. If the market is very volatile or opens with very large gaps, the risk increases and I tend to manually stop the strategy. The stop loss varies according to volatility.
Many features and performance reports will be available on this site: http://www.steelportfolio.com

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20185.112.013.8-6.325.5
20196.3-6.1-14.5-36.428.20.00.00.00.00.00.0-30.4
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/23/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age97 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades96
# Profitable75
% Profitable78.1%
Avg trade duration14.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown55.3%
drawdown periodDec 18, 2018 - May 03, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.6%
Avg win$555
Avg loss$2,158

Ratios

W:L ratio0.92
Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Sortino Ratio-0.32
Calmar Ratio-0.09

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life159.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-56.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity63.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss90.0%
Chance of 20% account loss58.5%
Chance of 30% account loss22.0%
Chance of 40% account loss3.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated93.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)522
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,158
Avg Win$555
# Winners75
Sum Trade PL (losers)$45,316
Sum Trade PL (winners)$41,591
Num Months Winners5
# Losers21
% Winners78.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table96

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)875.62
Avg Position Time (hrs)14.59
Avg Trade Length0.60
Last Trade Ago2664

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.55
Daily leverage (max)12.52

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.03
Treynor Index0.27

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-17.82
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.96
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats33.91
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.87
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.07
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.48
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.00
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.00
df16
t0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio0.01
Upside Potential Ratio1.32
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms13
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.03
r-0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error15
t(b)-1.23
p(b)0.69
t(a)0.37
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean-0.09
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.18
df16
t-0.23
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46
Sortino ratio-0.24
Upside Potential Ratio1.03
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms13
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance-0.03
r-0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error15
t(b)-1.15
p(b)0.68
t(a)0.09
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.20
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
Mean-0.05
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.23
df388
t-0.28
p0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.38
Sortino ratio-0.34
Upside Potential Ratio4.35
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms90
N negative terms299
N of observations389
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error387
t(b)-1.17
p(b)0.88
t(a)-0.22
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)1.52
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.08
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.35
df388
t-0.43
p0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio-0.50
Upside Potential Ratio4.16
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms90
N negative terms299
N of observations389
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.01
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error387
t(b)-1.08
p(b)0.86
t(a)-0.39
p(a)0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)2.67
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6866595070607360
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)7.67183116201624e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations17
Minimum0.68
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.01
Number of observations389
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low52
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high91
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.46
Quartile 10.46
Median0.46
Quartile 30.46
Maximum0.46
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.50
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.50
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.50
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-343681856
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)136
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.24
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.79
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 165 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XG M9short1Apr 2, 2019May 15, 2019($9,703)
XG H9short1Mar 13, 2019Mar 13, 2019($2,132)
XG H9short1Mar 11, 2019Mar 12, 2019($3,385)
XG H9short1Mar 8, 2019Mar 8, 2019($1,343)
XG H9short1Mar 7, 2019Mar 7, 2019$1,228
XG H9long1Mar 4, 2019Mar 7, 2019($3,189)
XG H9short1Feb 27, 2019Feb 27, 2019$1,104
XG H9short1Feb 26, 2019Feb 26, 2019($3,386)
XG H9long1Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019$551
XG H9long1Feb 22, 2019Feb 22, 2019$488
XG H9long1Feb 21, 2019Feb 21, 2019($2,249)
XG H9long1Feb 20, 2019Feb 20, 2019$1,403
ES H9long1Feb 20, 2019Feb 20, 2019($18)
XG H9long1Feb 19, 2019Feb 19, 2019($2,497)
XG H9short1Feb 19, 2019Feb 19, 2019($1,961)
XG H9long1Feb 15, 2019Feb 15, 2019($64)
XG H9long1Feb 15, 2019Feb 15, 2019($28)
XG H9short1Feb 15, 2019Feb 15, 2019$443
XG H9short1Feb 14, 2019Feb 14, 2019$952
XG H9long1Feb 13, 2019Feb 13, 2019$72
XG H9long1Feb 12, 2019Feb 12, 2019$96
XG H9short1Feb 7, 2019Feb 7, 2019$116
XG H9short1Feb 6, 2019Feb 6, 2019$412
XG H9long1Feb 5, 2019Feb 5, 2019$281
XG H9short1Feb 4, 2019Feb 4, 2019$327
XG H9short1Feb 1, 2019Feb 1, 2019$86
XG H9short1Jan 31, 2019Jan 31, 2019$296
XG H9short1Jan 30, 2019Jan 30, 2019$79
XG H9short1Jan 29, 2019Jan 29, 2019($884)
XG H9long1Jan 25, 2019Jan 25, 2019$606

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.