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TEGJ Trading

Futures · Started Aug 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-26.3%
Max Drawdown
94.2%
Trades
369
Win Trades
54.2%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
7.1%

About this strategy

DAY TRADE strategy... Most of the trades are on E mini S&P and ALL are Intraday. From time to time can be trades on different markets. All the trades have its respective stop loss. This strategy aims to obtained an attractive rate of return while aims to protect the principal. The number of trades is variable during the month, it depends on market behavior. Could be months with a high activity while others with less, in any case this is a strategy that on regular circumstances at least place a trade on the week.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201812.58.44.26.81.437.5
2019-17.9-6.9-11.4-1.71.0-4.4-6.74.4-9.0-0.1-41.5-13.8-71.3
2020-79.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-79.7
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/15/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age98 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades369
# Profitable200
% Profitable54.2%
Avg trade duration3.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown94.2%
drawdown periodDec 11, 2018 - Jan 15, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-26.3%
Avg win$114
Avg loss$160

Ratios

W:L ratio0.84
Sharpe Ratio0.02
Sortino Ratio0.07
Calmar Ratio-0.37

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life169.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-263.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-26.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-6.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1621.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss60.5%
Chance of 20% account loss14.5%
Chance of 30% account loss2.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$160
Avg Win$114
# Winners200
Sum Trade PL (losers)$27,087
Sum Trade PL (winners)$22,862
Num Months Winners7
# Losers169
% Winners54.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table98

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)235.70
Avg Position Time (hrs)3.93
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago2429

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)13.79
Daily leverage (max)53.33

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.07
Treynor Index-0.14

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.12
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats23.26
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades0
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.23
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.59
df25
t-0.90
p0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.75
Sortino ratio-0.73
Upside Potential Ratio0.94
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms18
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion-0.23
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance-0.01
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.19
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error24
t(b)-0.39
p(b)0.65
t(a)-0.66
p(a)0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)2.22
Jensen alpha (a)-0.19
Mean-0.31
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.74
df25
t-1.12
p0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.61
Sortino ratio-0.84
Upside Potential Ratio0.77
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms18
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion-0.31
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.01
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.27
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error24
t(b)-0.36
p(b)0.64
t(a)-0.89
p(a)0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)2.95
Jensen alpha (a)-0.27
VaR(95%)0.20
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
Mean-0.17
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.33
df583
t-0.49
p0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.99
Sortino ratio-0.53
Upside Potential Ratio3.46
Upside part of mean1.13
Downside part of mean-1.30
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms127
N negative terms457
N of observations584
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.17
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance-0.01
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.28
DF error582
t(b)-0.65
p(b)0.74
t(a)-0.43
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)4.39
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
Mean-0.30
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.61
df583
t-0.91
p0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.71
Sortino ratio-0.85
Upside Potential Ratio3.02
Upside part of mean1.06
Downside part of mean-1.36
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms127
N negative terms457
N of observations584
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion-0.30
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance-0.01
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.28
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error582
t(b)-0.73
p(b)0.77
t(a)-0.85
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)7.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.28
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.92
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6817898194534400
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)8.23451117764603e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations26
Minimum0.68
Quartile 10.95
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.76
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.32
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations584
Minimum0.78
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.56
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low102
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high127
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.63
Quartile 10.63
Median0.63
Quartile 30.63
Maximum0.63
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.64
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.64
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.45
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-434878176
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)400
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.04
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.84
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 209 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES Z9short1Nov 14, 2019Dec 23, 2019($6,471)
ES Z9short1Nov 14, 2019Nov 14, 2019$67
ES Z9long1Nov 14, 2019Nov 14, 2019$92
ES Z9long1Nov 14, 2019Nov 14, 2019($196)
ES Z9long1Nov 14, 2019Nov 14, 2019($46)
ES Z9long1Nov 14, 2019Nov 14, 2019($33)
ES Z9long1Nov 13, 2019Nov 13, 2019$105
ES Z9short1Nov 13, 2019Nov 13, 2019$317
ES Z9short1Nov 13, 2019Nov 13, 2019($146)
ES Z9long1Nov 12, 2019Nov 12, 2019$80
ES Z9short1Nov 12, 2019Nov 12, 2019($108)
ES Z9short1Nov 11, 2019Nov 11, 2019($83)
ES Z9short1Nov 8, 2019Nov 8, 2019($46)
ES Z9short1Nov 8, 2019Nov 8, 2019($133)
ES Z9short1Nov 8, 2019Nov 8, 2019$17
ES Z9short1Nov 8, 2019Nov 8, 2019($171)
ES Z9short1Nov 8, 2019Nov 8, 2019($83)
ES Z9short1Nov 8, 2019Nov 8, 2019$30
ES Z9short1Nov 7, 2019Nov 7, 2019$55
ES Z9short1Nov 7, 2019Nov 7, 2019($121)
ES Z9long1Nov 7, 2019Nov 7, 2019($83)
ES Z9short1Nov 6, 2019Nov 6, 2019$5
ES Z9short2Nov 6, 2019Nov 6, 2019($41)
ES Z9short1Nov 6, 2019Nov 6, 2019$80
ES Z9short1Nov 6, 2019Nov 6, 2019$55
ES Z9short1Nov 5, 2019Nov 5, 2019($8)
ES Z9short1Nov 5, 2019Nov 5, 2019$130
ES Z9short1Nov 5, 2019Nov 5, 2019($171)
ES Z9long3Nov 5, 2019Nov 5, 2019($37)
ES Z9short1Nov 5, 2019Nov 5, 2019($33)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.