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Forex Aggressive Risk

Forex · Started May 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
293
Win Trades
93.9%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
16.8%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201814.910.913.0-10.1-3.024.25.90.265.3
201917.7-8.535.2-7.229.37.820.51.27.51.114.0-44.856.9
2020108.95.7-116.5-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-136.6
2021-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
2022-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0
2023-0.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
2024-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
2025-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0
2026-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.4-0.30.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/9/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age102 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades293
# Profitable275
% Profitable93.9%
Avg trade duration5.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodMarch 18, 2020 - March 18, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$458
Avg loss$8,957

Ratios

W:L ratio0.78
Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Sortino Ratio-0.57
Calmar Ratio-0.97

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life181.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-377.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss40.5%
Chance of 20% account loss12.5%
Chance of 30% account loss2.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$8,957
Avg Win$458
# Winners275
Sum Trade PL (losers)$161,233
Sum Trade PL (winners)$125,897
Num Months Winners17
# Losers18
% Winners93.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table23

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8304.85
Avg Position Time (hrs)138.41
Avg Trade Length5.80
Last Trade Ago2366

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)13.93
Daily leverage (max)240.29

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.17
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat3.97
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.33
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-14.53
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)34.34
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats99.70
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats98.38
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.40
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.45
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.94
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df31
t0.05
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.23
Sortino ratio0.04
Upside Potential Ratio1.02
Upside part of mean0.84
Downside part of mean-0.81
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.83
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms15
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.94
Covariance0.04
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.90
DF error30
t(b)0.64
p(b)0.26
t(a)-0.15
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.16
Treynor index (mean / b)0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean-3.74
SD6.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.61
df31
t-1.02
p0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.60
Sortino ratio-0.62
Upside Potential Ratio0.13
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-4.51
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD5.99
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms15
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion-3.74
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion6.00
Covariance-0.19
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.29
Mean Square Error36.90
DF error30
t(b)-0.47
p(b)0.68
t(a)-0.86
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-7.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-11.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.56
Treynor index (mean / b)2.70
Jensen alpha (a)-3.29
VaR(95%)0.96
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.98
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.33
Mean-0.27
SD0.89
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.31
df713
t-0.51
p0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.88
Sortino ratio-0.33
Upside Potential Ratio2.69
Upside part of mean2.20
Downside part of mean-2.47
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.82
N nonnegative terms267
N negative terms447
N of observations714
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.27
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.89
Covariance0.03
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.37
Mean Square Error0.78
DF error712
t(b)2.41
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.69
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.37
Mean-3.66
SD5.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.63
df713
t-1.04
p0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.56
Sortino ratio-0.63
Upside Potential Ratio0.37
Upside part of mean2.14
Downside part of mean-5.80
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD5.81
N nonnegative terms267
N negative terms447
N of observations714
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion-3.66
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion5.82
Covariance0.03
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.77
Mean Square Error33.92
DF error712
t(b)0.43
p(b)0.33
t(a)-1.06
p(a)0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-10.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.46
Jensen alpha (a)-3.77
VaR(95%)0.45
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.53
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.94
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6810474880434176
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.46668125011957e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations32
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1.02
Quartile 31.13
Maximum1.39
Mean of quarter 10.73
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.22
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.05
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.90
Number of observations714
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low60
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high69
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.13
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations46
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)4.53
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-498862528
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)42
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.97
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.97
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-4.40
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.85
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 408 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/AUD short1100Feb 26, 2020Mar 19, 2020$0
USD/CAD short500Mar 11, 2020Mar 12, 2020$2,287
GBP/USD short500Mar 5, 2020Mar 10, 2020$7
AUD/NZD short700Mar 3, 2020Mar 5, 2020$630
CHF/JPY long500Mar 2, 2020Mar 2, 2020($277)
USD/JPY short1000Feb 4, 2020Feb 27, 2020($12)
EUR/AUD short1000Feb 25, 2020Feb 25, 2020$1,278
USD/CHF short750Feb 6, 2020Feb 25, 2020($193)
CAD/JPY short1000Feb 19, 2020Feb 24, 2020($510)
GBP/USD short500Feb 13, 2020Feb 17, 2020$945
AUD/NZD short1000Feb 10, 2020Feb 11, 2020$2,367
USD/CAD short1000Feb 3, 2020Feb 4, 2020$1,401
EUR/GBP short1000Feb 3, 2020Feb 4, 2020$1,662
GBP/CAD short1000Jan 31, 2020Feb 3, 2020$8,243
USD/JPY short1000Jan 30, 2020Jan 31, 2020$1,337
USD/CAD long1000Jan 30, 2020Jan 30, 2020($85)
USD/CAD short1000Jan 29, 2020Jan 30, 2020$397
EUR/AUD short1000Jan 30, 2020Jan 30, 2020$1,250
USD/CAD short1010Jan 27, 2020Jan 28, 2020$1,430
USD/JPY short750Jan 8, 2020Jan 26, 2020$38
CAD/CHF short750Jan 23, 2020Jan 26, 2020$861
CAD/CHF short700Jan 22, 2020Jan 22, 2020$3,223
AUD/JPY short200Jan 10, 2020Jan 20, 2020$249
EUR/AUD short500Jan 6, 2020Jan 10, 2020($28)
NZD/CAD short1000Dec 20, 2019Dec 20, 2019$0
CAD/JPY short800Dec 18, 2019Dec 19, 2019$1,047
CHF/JPY short800Dec 17, 2019Dec 18, 2019$940
GBP/USD short800Dec 10, 2019Dec 10, 2019$2,746
NZD/CHF long800Dec 9, 2019Dec 9, 2019($45)
NZD/CHF short800Dec 9, 2019Dec 9, 2019$856

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.