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Myfxmap com

Futures · Futures · Started Apr 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
21.2%
Max Drawdown
27.5%
Trades
235
Win Trades
84.3%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
12.7%

About this strategy

Hello. My name is Michael. Experience in forex trading since 2006. Trading decisions on the system are made based on the analysis of intraday foreign exchange fees for futures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group). Trade is carried out both on a trend and on turns. Trading in the system is conducted on currency futures CME Group - @AD, @CD, @EU, @BP, @ JY, @SF. Trading system is manual. The average trading activity is 15-30 trades per month. Maximum annual drawdown of 30%.

Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20180.3-5.824.39.21.48.7-5.43.0-1.835.3
20195.84.04.2-3.35.93.4-1.73.5-6.1-6.34.2-11.40.4
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/27/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age102 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades235
# Profitable198
% Profitable84.3%
Avg trade duration2.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.6%
drawdown periodSept 20, 2019 - Dec 12, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)21.2%
Avg win$430
Avg loss$1,644

Ratios

W:L ratio1.40
Sharpe Ratio0.20
Sortino Ratio0.28
Calmar Ratio0.85

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life184.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)17.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)21.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity29.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss36.5%
Chance of 20% account loss4.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)765
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)911
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)797

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,644
Avg Win$430
# Winners198
Sum Trade PL (losers)$60,820
Sum Trade PL (winners)$85,222
Num Months Winners13
# Losers37
% Winners84.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table102

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2871.35
Avg Position Time (hrs)47.86
Avg Trade Length2
Last Trade Ago2453

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.74
Daily leverage (max)16.56

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0.27

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades9.00
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.17
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats79.72
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats33.92
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.54
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.30
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.33
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.96
df18
t1.26
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.55
Sortino ratio2.75
Upside Potential Ratio4.36
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms6
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error17
t(b)0.56
p(b)0.41
t(a)1.15
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)1.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
Mean0.28
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df18
t1.20
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.50
Sortino ratio2.25
Upside Potential Ratio3.85
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms6
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error17
t(b)0.64
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.10
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)1.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.24
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.14
df423
t1.45
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.68
Sortino ratio1.62
Upside Potential Ratio8.23
Upside part of mean1.22
Downside part of mean-0.98
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms237
N negative terms187
N of observations424
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error422
t(b)2.69
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)1.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
Mean0.22
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df423
t1.31
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.57
Sortino ratio1.45
Upside Potential Ratio8.02
Upside part of mean1.21
Downside part of mean-0.99
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms237
N negative terms187
N of observations424
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error422
t(b)2.69
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.23
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)1.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.24
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.19
df130
t-0.85
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio-1.43
Upside Potential Ratio5.24
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-1.13
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms61
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.24
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.31
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)2.78
p(b)0.35
t(a)-1.11
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.64
Jensen alpha (a)-0.31
Mean-0.26
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.28
df130
t-0.91
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio-1.52
Upside Potential Ratio5.12
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-1.15
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms61
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-0.26
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.33
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)2.77
p(b)0.35
t(a)-1.17
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.69
Jensen alpha (a)-0.33
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.89
Quartile 10.99
Median1.03
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-13.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations424
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low30
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.08
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.93
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.10
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-253340704
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)83
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.40
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.31
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.57
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.84
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.88

Trading record

Placed 944 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BP H0short2Dec 16, 2019Dec 16, 2019$197
EU H0short1Dec 13, 2019Dec 16, 2019($27)
BP H0short1Dec 16, 2019Dec 16, 2019$186
BP H0short3Dec 16, 2019Dec 16, 2019$670
BP Z9short1Dec 13, 2019Dec 13, 2019$155
BP H0short1Dec 13, 2019Dec 13, 2019$136
BP H0short3Dec 12, 2019Dec 12, 2019($5,912)
BP Z9short26Nov 27, 2019Dec 12, 2019($5,071)
M6B Z9short2Dec 12, 2019Dec 12, 2019($6)
M6B Z9long4Dec 11, 2019Dec 11, 2019($10)
BP Z9short6Nov 26, 2019Nov 27, 2019$283
BP Z9short8Nov 22, 2019Nov 26, 2019$855
BP Z9short1Nov 22, 2019Nov 22, 2019$205
AD Z9short2Nov 15, 2019Nov 18, 2019$94
AD Z9short1Nov 12, 2019Nov 13, 2019$222
AD Z9short9Oct 30, 2019Nov 11, 2019$948
CD Z9short1Oct 30, 2019Oct 30, 2019$257
AD Z9short3Oct 29, 2019Oct 30, 2019$301
AD Z9short2Oct 29, 2019Oct 29, 2019$64
CD Z9short5Oct 23, 2019Oct 29, 2019$50
AD Z9short2Oct 22, 2019Oct 22, 2019$464
AD Z9short1Oct 21, 2019Oct 22, 2019$82
EU Z9short4Oct 8, 2019Oct 16, 2019($1,248)
BP Z9short10Oct 11, 2019Oct 15, 2019($5,614)
BP Z9short2Oct 11, 2019Oct 11, 2019$240
BP Z9short1Oct 9, 2019Oct 9, 2019$111
EU Z9short1Oct 8, 2019Oct 8, 2019$92
BP Z9short2Oct 7, 2019Oct 8, 2019$465
CD Z9long3Oct 4, 2019Oct 7, 2019($49)
CD Z9long3Oct 3, 2019Oct 4, 2019$471

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.