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Tasty Plays

Options · Options · Started Apr 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.6%
Max Drawdown
46.8%
Trades
296
Win Trades
81.8%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
59.4%

About this strategy

The strategy trades according to the Tastytrade philosophy: We benefit from the return of the implied volatilities to their means and from time decay. The underlying are either resilient when the markets fall, or highly volatile (meaning high premiums and safety cushions), or with a mathematical construction which allows a predictability in the price behavior.

Margin Use: Many strategies are using position sizes which are consuming all the allowable margin. When it works in the beginning, they manage to get a very high performance. As soon as the market goes against them, a margin call follows and the account gets obliterated. We invest a maximum 60% of the available margin to absorb price actions going against us and to withhold high volatility in the market.

Adjustments when the markets go against us: Our positions are easy to adjust. Should the strikes of the options be breached, I either roll the position or accept the assignment of the options. This is then followed by covered calls.

Management of winners: We usually close a position at 50%-75% of the maximum gain. Tastytrade studies show that managing winners early improves the performance.

Scaling: The strategy can be traded with accounts from 15k-20k upwards or less if you do not trade all the positions.

Easy to trade: You can trade easily my strategy via emails. Usually the limit prices are reachable several hours (sometimes several days) after the trade alerts are sent. Europeans can also trade options on US ETFs without any problem.

Stop-Losses: Several Tastytrade studies show that placing a kind of stop-loss of 100% or 200% loss of premium is not helpful in the long-term. Such temporary losses can occur and very often the position ends nevertheless with a win. Having cut the loss upfront would have been detrimental. I prefer to protect the portfolio through investing only 60% of the available margin in total.

Premium Collecting

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20181.21.2-0.22.12.81.6-4.14.80.510.1
20199.01.02.31.5-4.68.42.82.00.2-0.0-1.23.326.8
20200.2-9.2-28.7-8.517.02.88.83.0-3.3-6.629.71.9-4.6
20211.07.58.93.63.9-4.1-5.0-1.51.02.34.73.928.2
20225.7-0.3-0.9-6.2-10.9-6.43.9-4.8-12.18.510.9-4.8-18.6
20236.73.9-7.05.2-7.36.23.8-11.0-7.42.36.29.08.2
2024-3.66.69.4-2.2-1.6-2.20.6-1.30.1-0.26.7-3.18.5
20254.4-0.8-0.8-6.42.11.80.04.5-5.4-5.21.83.6-1.1
2026-8.52.3-5.33.4-0.91.03.82.6

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/7/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age102 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades296
# Profitable242
% Profitable81.8%
Avg trade duration81.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown46.8%
drawdown periodFeb 12, 2020 - March 24, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)5.6%
Avg win$600
Avg loss$1,962

Ratios

W:L ratio1.75
Sharpe Ratio0.22
Sortino Ratio0.32
Calmar Ratio0.42

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.51
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life191.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-138.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity19.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered10.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss2.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,957
Avg Win$603
# Winners242
Sum Trade PL (losers)$105,692
Sum Trade PL (winners)$146,021
Num Months Winners61
# Losers54
% Winners81.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct19688

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table101

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)117731.10
Avg Position Time (hrs)1962.19
Avg Trade Length81.80
Last Trade Ago2106

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.32
Daily leverage (max)5.65

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.61
Treynor Index0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.07
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.55
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.42
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats13.51
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats36.69
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.43
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.47
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.27

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.20
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df33
t0.83
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio0.73
Upside Potential Ratio1.73
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms9
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.09
r0.68
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.82
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error32
t(b)5.28
p(b)0
t(a)-0.53
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
Mean0.11
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.26
df33
t0.44
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.42
Sortino ratio0.33
Upside Potential Ratio1.28
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms9
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.11
r0.74
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.93
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.17
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error32
t(b)6.18
p(b)0
t(a)-0.92
p(a)0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.17
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.22
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df750
t0.92
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.70
Sortino ratio0.77
Upside Potential Ratio6.51
Upside part of mean1.84
Downside part of mean-1.62
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms412
N negative terms339
N of observations751
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.07
r0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error749
t(b)17.98
p(b)0
t(a)-0.27
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)0.32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean0.14
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df750
t0.57
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio0.46
Upside Potential Ratio6.06
Upside part of mean1.80
Downside part of mean-1.66
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms412
N negative terms339
N of observations751
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.07
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.68
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error749
t(b)18.34
p(b)0
t(a)-0.52
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.04
df130
t-0.03
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.73
Sortino ratio-0.06
Upside Potential Ratio7.33
Upside part of mean3.67
Downside part of mean-3.70
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.50
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0.64
Covariance0.21
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.80
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.03
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error129
t(b)9.57
p(b)0.12
t(a)-1.46
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-1.03
Mean-0.24
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.36
df130
t-0.26
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.41
Sortino ratio-0.45
Upside Potential Ratio6.73
Upside part of mean3.59
Downside part of mean-3.83
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.53
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.11
Mean of criterion-0.24
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance0.23
r0.66
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.84
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.17
Mean Square Error0.25
DF error129
t(b)9.94
p(b)0.11
t(a)-1.65
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.29
Jensen alpha (a)-1.17
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations34
Minimum0.60
Quartile 11.00
Median1.01
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.34
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.75
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations751
Minimum0.79
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low78
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high78
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.39
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.79
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.40
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.40
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations66
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.43
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.88
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.73
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.36
Quartile 10.36
Median0.36
Quartile 30.36
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-403446944
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)41
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.53
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.69
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.42
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.58
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.53
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.35

Trading record

Placed 161 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BP2020W38 short5Mar 10, 2020Nov 21, 2020$7,172
BWA2020W30 short10Mar 10, 2020Nov 21, 2020$6,233
WFC2016V47.5 short5Mar 10, 2020Oct 17, 2020$8,072
SPR2016V47.5 short10Mar 10, 2020Oct 17, 2020$9,993
WBA2016V45 short5Mar 10, 2020Oct 17, 2020$2,247
HOG2021T32.5 short5Mar 10, 2020Aug 22, 2020$5,199
CHD2020C70 short7Feb 14, 2020Mar 21, 2020$4,510
WFC2020O47.5 short5Feb 11, 2020Mar 10, 2020($7,121)
WBA2020O50 short5Feb 20, 2020Mar 10, 2020($1,966)
SPR2020O60 short5Feb 20, 2020Mar 10, 2020($9,132)
HOG2020O32.5 short5Feb 4, 2020Mar 10, 2020($4,642)
BWA2020O32.5 short10Feb 19, 2020Mar 10, 2020($5,620)
BP2013O38 short5Feb 19, 2020Mar 10, 2020($6,037)
DLTR2021N85 short3Jan 14, 2020Feb 22, 2020$274
O2021N70 short5Jan 10, 2020Feb 22, 2020$327
MPLX2021N23 short5Feb 6, 2020Feb 22, 2020$147
WBA2020O47.5 short5Jan 30, 2020Feb 20, 2020$192
SPR2021N67.5 short5Jan 14, 2020Feb 20, 2020$603
BP2021N38 short5Jan 21, 2020Feb 19, 2020($552)
CHD2021B70 short7Jan 8, 2020Feb 14, 2020($2,607)
KO2021N55 short5Jan 2, 2020Feb 5, 2020$523
QSR2017M62.5 short5Dec 20, 2019Jan 18, 2020$157
NTGR2017M24 short3Dec 9, 2019Jan 18, 2020$238
BEN2017M25 short5Dec 11, 2019Jan 18, 2020$287
TAP2017M50 short3Dec 9, 2019Jan 18, 2020$238
ORCL2017M52.5 short5Dec 20, 2019Jan 18, 2020$252
T2017M38 short5Dec 17, 2019Jan 18, 2020$317
CHD2017A70 short5Dec 20, 2019Jan 17, 2020($282)
SPR2017M70 short5Jan 9, 2020Jan 14, 2020($932)
O2017M70 short5Dec 20, 2019Jan 10, 2020$208

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.