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Hit Parade

Futures · Futures · Started Feb 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.5%
Max Drawdown
42.9%
Trades
983
Win Trades
59.9%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
12.6%

About this strategy

TBA

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201819.721.014.77.1-4.93.08.3-14.117.56.7-6.889.3
201918.16.6-13.1-14.84.2-0.85.423.60.0-0.60.00.024.7
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/8/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age104 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades983
# Profitable589
% Profitable59.9%
Avg trade duration4.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown42.9%
drawdown periodFeb 28, 2019 - June 07, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)10.5%
Avg win$194
Avg loss$225

Ratios

W:L ratio1.29
Sharpe Ratio0.51
Sortino Ratio0.83
Calmar Ratio3.40

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life194.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-62.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)16.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss21.0%
Chance of 20% account loss1.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$225
Avg Win$194
# Winners589
Sum Trade PL (losers)$88,790
Sum Trade PL (winners)$114,550
Num Months Winners13
# Losers394
% Winners59.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table103

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)263.03
Avg Position Time (hrs)4.38
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago2577

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)7.27
Daily leverage (max)13.33

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta-0.05
Treynor Index-0.49

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.89
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.56
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats20.93
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats41.36
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.70
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.22
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.58
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.63
df27
t2.56
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.99
Sortino ratio7.67
Upside Potential Ratio9.09
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms14
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.58
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.01
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.64
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error26
t(b)-0.60
p(b)0.72
t(a)2.56
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.85
Jensen alpha (a)0.64
Mean0.52
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.62
df27
t2.55
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.97
Sortino ratio6.64
Upside Potential Ratio8.06
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms14
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.01
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.56
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error26
t(b)-0.55
p(b)0.71
t(a)2.54
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.80
Jensen alpha (a)0.56
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.54
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.46
df615
t3.78
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.75
Sortino ratio4.25
Upside Potential Ratio10.19
Upside part of mean1.29
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms236
N negative terms380
N of observations616
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.54
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.01
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.56
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error614
t(b)-2.09
p(b)0.98
t(a)3.96
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.84
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.56
Mean0.51
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.37
df615
t3.63
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.65
Sortino ratio4.00
Upside Potential Ratio9.91
Upside part of mean1.27
Downside part of mean-0.76
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms236
N negative terms380
N of observations616
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.51
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.01
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.54
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error614
t(b)-2.05
p(b)0.98
t(a)3.79
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.54
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.90
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6824670821089280
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.78994350473479e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations28
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.37
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations616
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low72
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high69
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.06
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations25
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-411800864
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)99
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.73
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.95
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.51
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.72
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.43
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal28.38
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1739 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MES U9short3Jun 27, 2019Aug 9, 2019$787
QMGC Z9long7Jun 25, 2019Aug 5, 2019$2,290
M2K U9long1Jun 25, 2019Jun 27, 2019$13
MNQ U9long2Jun 25, 2019Jun 27, 2019$121
QMGC Z9long7Jun 7, 2019Jun 24, 2019$5,111
MES U9short1Jun 19, 2019Jun 19, 2019($62)
M2K M9short4May 31, 2019Jun 7, 2019($689)
MES M9short5Jun 2, 2019Jun 7, 2019($1,204)
MNQ M9short1Jun 4, 2019Jun 7, 2019($812)
MYM M9short1Jun 3, 2019Jun 3, 2019$43
MNQ M9short2Jun 2, 2019Jun 3, 2019$64
MNQ M9short2May 31, 2019Jun 2, 2019$195
MES M9short1May 31, 2019May 31, 2019($2)
MES M9long1May 31, 2019May 31, 2019$19
MNQ M9short2May 29, 2019May 31, 2019$324
M2K M9short3May 29, 2019May 30, 2019$124
MES M9short2May 29, 2019May 30, 2019$107
MNQ M9short2May 29, 2019May 29, 2019$100
MES M9long1May 29, 2019May 29, 2019$29
M2K M9short1May 29, 2019May 29, 2019$51
MNQ M9short1May 29, 2019May 29, 2019$110
MES M9short2May 29, 2019May 29, 2019$112
MES M9long1May 29, 2019May 29, 2019$39
M2K M9long1May 29, 2019May 29, 2019$35
MNQ M9short1May 23, 2019May 29, 2019$169
MES M9short1May 23, 2019May 29, 2019$202
M2K M9short2May 23, 2019May 29, 2019$129
M2K M9short2May 23, 2019May 23, 2019$92
M2K M9short3May 23, 2019May 23, 2019$73
M2K M9long1May 23, 2019May 23, 2019$19

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.