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SteadyUp Emini

Futures · Futures · Started Feb 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
14.4%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
349
Win Trades
80.2%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
66.3%

About this strategy

Trade in both directions: long and short ..

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201852.78.411.2-9.5-16.732.217.522.320.15.6-17.6175.3
20190.2-8.5-1.1-30.443.25.710.0-5.813.24.3-5.5-10.4-1.0
20202.5-66.535.455.810.00.41.12.5-1.10.32.20.8-15.1
20210.51.10.51.80.30.71.01.0-1.32.1-0.62.19.6
2022-1.8-1.21.7-3.4-0.1-2.92.8-1.3-3.32.02.5-2.1-7.0
20232.0-0.60.00.71.41.41.8-0.5-2.0-0.73.21.58.3
20241.11.61.1-1.61.91.70.31.00.01.61.10.310.5
20250.50.3-3.2-2.14.20.52.60.31.41.9-1.41.96.8
20260.2-0.3-2.14.02.10.1-0.72.4-0.65.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/5/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age105 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades349
# Profitable280
% Profitable80.2%
Avg trade duration13.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodMarch 13, 2020 - March 18, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)14.4%
Avg win$3,654
Avg loss$12,424

Ratios

W:L ratio1.20
Sharpe Ratio0.31
Sortino Ratio0.75
Calmar Ratio0.62

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.32
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life186.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)28.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)14.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)18.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity8.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss75.5%
Chance of 20% account loss46.0%
Chance of 30% account loss31.0%
Chance of 40% account loss14.5%
Chance of 50% account loss5.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$12,424
Avg Win$3,654
# Winners280
Sum Trade PL (losers)$857,238
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,023,192
Num Months Winners71
# Losers69
% Winners80.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct4100

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table104

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)18841.62
Avg Position Time (hrs)314.03
Avg Trade Length13.10
Last Trade Ago2296

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)133.84
Daily leverage (max)51661.20

Regression

Alpha0
Beta2.31
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.05
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades16.64
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.84
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats59.95
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats39.67
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.10
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.70
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.36
SD1.86
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df36
t1.28
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.84
Sortino ratio2.80
Upside Potential Ratio3.81
Upside part of mean1.85
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD1.81
Downside SD0.49
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms11
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion1.36
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion1.86
Covariance0.24
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.51
Mean Square Error3.01
DF error35
t(b)2.55
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.49
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.63
Treynor index (mean / b)0.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.51
Mean0.46
SD1.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df36
t0.62
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46
Sortino ratio0.49
Upside Potential Ratio1.32
Upside part of mean1.22
Downside part of mean-0.76
Upside SD0.90
Downside SD0.92
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms11
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion1.30
Covariance0.27
r0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.32
Mean Square Error1.06
DF error35
t(b)4.67
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.52
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.92
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)-0.32
VaR(95%)0.44
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.52
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean24676.00
SD43331.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df807
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.69
Sortino ratio28760.92
Upside Potential Ratio28764.25
Upside part of mean24678.86
Downside part of mean-2.85
Upside SD43331.60
Downside SD0.86
N nonnegative terms466
N negative terms342
N of observations808
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion24676.00
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion43331.60
Covariance2257.52
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)25240.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)15476.86
Mean Square Error1822905856
DF error806
t(b)5.02
p(b)0
t(a)0.63
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta15375.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta35104.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-32381.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha63335.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.98
Jensen alpha (a)15476.86
Mean0.46
SD9.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df807
t0.09
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.16
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.06
Upside part of mean7.09
Downside part of mean-6.64
Upside SD6.48
Downside SD6.71
N nonnegative terms466
N negative terms342
N of observations808
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion9.34
Covariance0.81
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)9.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.43
Mean Square Error79.89
DF error806
t(b)8.62
p(b)0
t(a)-0.48
p(a)0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta11.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7.58
Treynor index (mean / b)0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-2.43
VaR(95%)0.61
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.69
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.31
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.62
df130
t1.86
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.41
Sortino ratio3.93
Upside Potential Ratio11.34
Upside part of mean0.90
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms80
N negative terms51
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.05
r0.93
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)28.02
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.94
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)1.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.30
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.56
df130
t1.82
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.35
Sortino ratio3.82
Upside Potential Ratio11.21
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms80
N negative terms51
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.96
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.05
r0.93
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)27.92
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.25
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)1.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations37
Minimum0.21
Quartile 10.99
Median1.03
Quartile 31.14
Maximum4.07
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.56
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.21
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high2.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.90
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.73
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations808
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum76096.63
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 4377.77
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low58
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high51
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1493.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.64
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.22
Quartile 10.23
Median0.25
Quartile 30.53
Maximum0.82
Mean of quarter 10.22
Mean of quarter 20.25
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.82
Inter Quartile Range0.30
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations25
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.10
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high0.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.31
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.46
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.56
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.46
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-431694624
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)5
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.62
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.21
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.62
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.62
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.90
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.39
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs12.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal28.51

Trading record

Placed 113 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
YM M0long44Mar 19, 2020May 28, 2020$40,328
ES M0short72Mar 19, 2020Mar 20, 2020$43,949
YM M0long1Mar 19, 2020Mar 19, 2020$407
YM M0long1Mar 19, 2020Mar 19, 2020$617
ES M0short2Mar 19, 2020Mar 19, 2020($2,566)
ES M0short10Mar 18, 2020Mar 19, 2020$13,795
ES M0short6Mar 18, 2020Mar 18, 2020($6,848)
ES M0short60Mar 17, 2020Mar 18, 2020$59,795
ES M0short1Mar 17, 2020Mar 17, 2020($921)
ES M0short11Mar 16, 2020Mar 17, 2020$7,750
ES H0short20Mar 13, 2020Mar 16, 2020$11,903
NQ M0long1Mar 16, 2020Mar 16, 2020$587
NQ H0long12Mar 12, 2020Mar 16, 2020$20,644
ES H0short1Mar 13, 2020Mar 13, 2020$1,155
ES H0short1Mar 13, 2020Mar 13, 2020$1,280
ES H0long2Mar 13, 2020Mar 13, 2020($1,091)
ES H0short1Mar 13, 2020Mar 13, 2020($4,021)
ES H0short1Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$1,342
ES H0short1Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$1,067
ES H0short1Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$4,405
ES H0short1Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$3,042
NQ H0long1Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$172
NQ H0long1Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$247
NQ H0long2Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$884
NQ H0long4Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$3,333
NQ H0long2Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$1,779
NQ H0long1Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$482
NQ H0long1Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$462
NQ H0long1Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$327
NQ H0short1Mar 12, 2020Mar 12, 2020$347

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.