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AlgoFolio Short

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
423
Win Trades
65.2%
Profit Factor
0.30
Win Months
18.1%

About this strategy

Strategy Objective:
Tactical short trades only
Seek low to negative correlation to SP 500
Stocks - 80% of trades
Futures - 10% of trades
Options - 10% of trades
Subscription Price - 1% of Strategy Account Value 12 months

Non-hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2018-0.120.55.74.539.3-8.911.21.326.69.50.717.0210.4
2019-54.7-42.2-26.8-14.14.25.6-5.921.2-0.2-3.0-13.7-7.4-84.0
2020-7.1-5.215.3-28.1-25.6-16.3-41.4-123.9-201.1186.5-136.2-203.5-120.3
2021-55.4-126.6-50.5-62.8-14.2-98.9-12.4-36.0-6.5-38.0-14.8-0.9
2022-45.8-22.8-51.9-119.83.4131.0-59.2-27.7313.4-30.6-98.63532.0-112.8
2023-280.5-35.0-52.2-5.6-121.2-22.7-5.3-13.8-24.1-0.5-32.6-3.1-1428.0
2024-40.9-34.9-23.5-10.1-32.4-16.7-8.0-9.2-3.2-13.5-2.6-4.1
2025-2.8-11.5-14.1-2.8-30.5-21.9-7.1-5.8-2.6-3.3-4.7-4.4
2026-0.3-2.9-2.4-20.4-0.8-9.9-0.3-8.0-5.9-16.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/31/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age105 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades423
# Profitable276
% Profitable65.2%
Avg trade duration47.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodSept 11, 2020 - Sept 09, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$1,663
Avg loss$9,609

Ratios

W:L ratio0.32
Sharpe Ratio-0.13
Sortino Ratio-0.18
Calmar Ratio-1.00

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.19
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life168.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-1159.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.1%
Percent Trades Futures0.2%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.7%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss95.0%
Chance of 40% account loss76.5%
Chance of 50% account loss59.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)44.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)12.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$9,609
Avg Win$1,663
# Winners276
Sum Trade PL (losers)$1,412,583
Sum Trade PL (winners)$459,117
Num Months Winners15
# Losers147
% Winners65.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-9009

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table32

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)68054.73
Avg Position Time (hrs)1134.25
Avg Trade Length47.30
Last Trade Ago1414

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)7
Daily leverage (max)30.04

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-1.60
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.12
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.79
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.60
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats80.04
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.09
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.96
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.89

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean13755.90
SD19046.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df22
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio10997.22
Upside Potential Ratio10998.82
Upside part of mean13757.90
Downside part of mean-2.00
Upside SD19046.00
Downside SD1.25
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms13
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion13755.90
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion19046.09
Covariance-1801.56
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-6654.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)17388.98
Mean Square Error367468288
DF error21
t(b)-0.85
p(b)0.62
t(a)1.20
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-22988.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta9680.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12755.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha47533.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.07
Jensen alpha (a)17388.98
Mean-6.03
SD12.89
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.45
df22
t-0.65
p0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.97
Sortino ratio-0.58
Upside Potential Ratio0.57
Upside part of mean5.92
Downside part of mean-11.96
Upside SD7.36
Downside SD10.38
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms13
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion-6.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion12.89
Covariance-1.55
r-0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)-7.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.05
Mean Square Error162.69
DF error21
t(b)-1.21
p(b)0.66
t(a)-0.32
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-19.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-22.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha16.78
Treynor index (mean / b)0.86
Jensen alpha (a)-3.05
VaR(95%)1.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR1.00
VaR(95%)0.41
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.82
Mean15765.23
SD13968.78
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df520
t1.59
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.52
Sortino ratio7545.57
Upside Potential Ratio7549.77
Upside part of mean15774.01
Downside part of mean-8.78
Upside SD13989.31
Downside SD2.09
N nonnegative terms192
N negative terms329
N of observations521
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion15765.23
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion13968.78
Covariance-163.02
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-940.42
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)16292.99
Mean Square Error195349072
DF error519
t(b)-0.64
p(b)0.74
t(a)1.64
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3832.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1951.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3246.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha35832.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-16.76
Jensen alpha (a)16292.98
Mean-5.82
SD19.99
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.29
df520
t-0.41
p0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.10
Sortino ratio-0.39
Upside Potential Ratio1.80
Upside part of mean26.70
Downside part of mean-32.52
Upside SD13.39
Downside SD14.81
N nonnegative terms192
N negative terms329
N of observations521
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion-5.82
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion19.99
Covariance-1.21
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-6.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.64
Mean Square Error392.05
DF error519
t(b)-3.28
p(b)1.00
t(a)-0.19
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-10.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-30.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha25.01
Treynor index (mean / b)0.87
Jensen alpha (a)-2.64
VaR(95%)0.87
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.92
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
Mean47334.25
SD27087.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.74
df130
t1.24
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.52
Sortino ratio21558.75
Upside Potential Ratio21561.97
Upside part of mean47341.33
Downside part of mean-7.08
Upside SD27142.07
Downside SD2.20
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms119
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.28
Mean of criterion47334.25
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion27087.66
Covariance-712.43
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2695.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)50787.05
Mean Square Error737494144
DF error129
t(b)-0.58
p(b)0.53
t(a)1.31
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-11861.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6470.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-26101.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha127675.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.56
Jensen alpha (a)50787.05
Mean-0.03
SD26.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.00
df130
t-0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.77
Sortino ratio-0.00
Upside Potential Ratio2.18
Upside part of mean41.08
Downside part of mean-41.11
Upside SD18.47
Downside SD18.86
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms119
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion26.50
Covariance-2.37
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-8.84
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)10.10
Mean Square Error686.47
DF error129
t(b)-1.99
p(b)0.61
t(a)0.27
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-17.62
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-63.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha84.10
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)10.10
VaR(95%)0.93
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.96
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.95
Median1
Quartile 31.10
Maximum26369
Mean of quarter 10.37
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 44395.86
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.26
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high26369
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-22.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.24
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-6.66
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.94
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.94
Number of observations521
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum18478
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 4242.29
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low65
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high58
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high541.78
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum18478
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 4718.29
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.61
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1973.56
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.48

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.30
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0.27
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.07
Quartile 30.14
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.65
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.40
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.45
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.31
Median0.70
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.39
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.69
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-390712128
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2189
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-3.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.09
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 656 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TWTR short400Dec 27, 2018Oct 27, 2022($10,535)
EX H9short10Dec 24, 2018Mar 15, 2019($29,180)
XG H9short7Dec 24, 2018Mar 15, 2019($159,512)
KR short400Dec 27, 2018Mar 7, 2019$664
NWL short400Dec 27, 2018Feb 28, 2019($44)
CVS short200Dec 27, 2018Feb 26, 2019$453
CNC short400Dec 27, 2018Feb 7, 2019($3,906)
NQ H9short7Dec 23, 2018Jan 4, 2019($51,718)
QHG F9short5Jan 2, 2019Jan 4, 2019($6,879)
GBP/JPY short250Jan 2, 2019Jan 4, 2019($58)
GBP/USD short500Dec 10, 2018Jan 2, 2019$3,791
GBP/CHF short500Dec 10, 2018Jan 2, 2019($553)
APTV short300Dec 10, 2018Dec 17, 2018$196
SRCL short500Dec 10, 2018Dec 17, 2018$1,034
CTAS short275Dec 10, 2018Dec 17, 2018$433
GIS short400Dec 10, 2018Dec 17, 2018$423
WDC short400Dec 10, 2018Dec 17, 2018$862
MAR short200Dec 10, 2018Dec 17, 2018$417
COF short300Dec 10, 2018Dec 17, 2018$1,225
MAT short500Dec 11, 2018Dec 17, 2018$450
BBY short400Dec 10, 2018Dec 17, 2018$1,757
RTY H9short14Dec 9, 2018Dec 16, 2018$12,127
NQ H9short7Dec 9, 2018Dec 16, 2018$2,869
TSN short300Dec 10, 2018Dec 14, 2018$52
BWA short500Dec 10, 2018Dec 14, 2018$84
BHF short1000Dec 10, 2018Dec 14, 2018$1,124
GBP/CHF short500Dec 9, 2018Dec 10, 2018$0
ES H9short5Dec 9, 2018Dec 10, 2018$4,435
NQ H9short8Dec 4, 2018Dec 6, 2018$24,576
DXM H9short3Dec 4, 2018Dec 6, 2018$4,518

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.