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DRIVER Balanced

Futures · Futures · Started Nov 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
7.1%
Max Drawdown
11.6%
Trades
342
Win Trades
45.3%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
9.4%

About this strategy

Recommended capital $ 30,000

Long Driver Portfolio trades major US indices such as ES, NQ, YM ...
It is an intraday trading system that consists of trading different time frames and different input conditions.
Long Driver is a simple, proven trend system based on strong fundamental logic.
Long Driver is based on simplicity and the associated robustness of the system (idea first).

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20179.0-5.33.3
201842.93.17.1-4.9-1.6-3.95.82.1-2.08.05.02.374.1
20191.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.6
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/16/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age107 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades342
# Profitable155
% Profitable45.3%
Avg trade duration3.8 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown11.6%
drawdown periodNov 30, 2017 - Dec 15, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)7.1%
Avg win$707
Avg loss$345

Ratios

W:L ratio1.70
Sharpe Ratio0.63
Sortino Ratio1.53
Calmar Ratio3.16

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life193.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-115.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)7.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity6.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss2.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.4%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$345
Avg Win$707
# Winners155
Sum Trade PL (losers)$64,481
Sum Trade PL (winners)$109,641
Num Months Winners10
# Losers187
% Winners45.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table106

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)226.30
Avg Position Time (hrs)3.77
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago2774

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.11
Daily leverage (max)15.80

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0.59

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.32
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats19.06
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.66
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.25
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.41

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.27
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.99
df28
t1.58
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio7.45
Upside Potential Ratio8.94
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms19
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error27
t(b)0.01
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.41
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)202.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
Mean0.24
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df28
t1.62
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.31
Sortino ratio6.47
Upside Potential Ratio7.95
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms19
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error27
t(b)0.06
p(b)0.48
t(a)1.45
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)23.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.24
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.88
df644
t2.95
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.13
Sortino ratio4.77
Upside Potential Ratio10.12
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms97
N negative terms548
N of observations645
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error643
t(b)1.69
p(b)0.05
t(a)2.80
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)9.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.24
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.84
df644
t2.90
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.10
Sortino ratio4.57
Upside Potential Ratio9.90
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms97
N negative terms548
N of observations645
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error643
t(b)1.70
p(b)0.05
t(a)2.77
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)9.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.90
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6823018869293056
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.18810028316155e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations29
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.40
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-14.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations645
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low116
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high97
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-440963392
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)15
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.80
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.53
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal19.77
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 814 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ H9long1Jan 25, 2019Jan 25, 2019$697
ES H9long1Jan 25, 2019Jan 25, 2019$226
YM H9long1Jan 25, 2019Jan 25, 2019$98
YM H9long1Jan 23, 2019Jan 23, 2019($581)
NQ H9long1Jan 18, 2019Jan 18, 2019($80)
YM H9long1Jan 18, 2019Jan 18, 2019$360
ES H9long1Jan 18, 2019Jan 18, 2019$238
YM H9long1Jan 17, 2019Jan 17, 2019($218)
ES H9long1Jan 17, 2019Jan 17, 2019($232)
NQ H9long1Jan 17, 2019Jan 17, 2019($533)
YM H9long1Jan 16, 2019Jan 16, 2019$159
ES H9long1Jan 16, 2019Jan 16, 2019($133)
ES H9long1Jan 15, 2019Jan 15, 2019$355
NQ H9long1Jan 15, 2019Jan 15, 2019$715
YM H9long1Jan 15, 2019Jan 15, 2019($363)
NQ H9long1Jan 9, 2019Jan 9, 2019($151)
YM H9long1Jan 9, 2019Jan 9, 2019($482)
ES H9long1Jan 9, 2019Jan 9, 2019($586)
ES H9long1Jan 8, 2019Jan 8, 2019($789)
NQ H9long1Jan 8, 2019Jan 8, 2019($687)
YM H9long1Jan 8, 2019Jan 8, 2019($433)
ES H9long1Jan 7, 2019Jan 7, 2019($672)
YM H9long1Jan 7, 2019Jan 7, 2019($541)
NQ H9long1Jan 7, 2019Jan 7, 2019($488)
YM H9long1Jan 4, 2019Jan 4, 2019$1,455
ES H9long1Jan 4, 2019Jan 4, 2019$1,530
NQ H9long1Jan 4, 2019Jan 4, 2019$2,620
YM H9long1Dec 31, 2018Dec 31, 2018($478)
NQ H9long1Dec 26, 2018Dec 26, 2018$2,775
ES H9long1Dec 26, 2018Dec 26, 2018$2,548

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.