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Mean Reversal Nasdaq 100

Equity · Stocks · Started Aug 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.5%
Max Drawdown
18.5%
Trades
288
Win Trades
68.8%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
11.8%

About this strategy

This system uses mean reversion techniques for trading the Nasdaq 100 components stocks with daily data. This is one of my existing strategies which I customized for C2 trading by using market orders. This system holds a maximum of 8 open positions.

Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20171.90.0-3.17.40.36.4
20184.1-8.5-2.55.02.0-4.9-1.3-2.95.4-1.58.40.02.1
20193.32.35.91.1-4.81.5-1.1-0.2-2.0-0.50.00.05.1
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/22/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age110 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades288
# Profitable198
% Profitable68.8%
Avg trade duration8.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown18.5%
drawdown periodJan 26, 2018 - Oct 26, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)1.5%
Avg win$104
Avg loss$172

Ratios

W:L ratio1.34
Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Sortino Ratio-0.04
Calmar Ratio0.63

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.15
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life209.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-197.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity8.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss26.5%
Chance of 20% account loss5.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$172
Avg Win$104
# Winners198
Sum Trade PL (losers)$15,506
Sum Trade PL (winners)$20,639
Num Months Winners15
# Losers90
% Winners68.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct152

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table110

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)11839.87
Avg Position Time (hrs)197.33
Avg Trade Length8.20
Last Trade Ago2535

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.89
Daily leverage (max)1.85

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades12.82
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.81
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats63.15
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats55.31
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.85
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.72
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.52
df34
t0.91
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Sortino ratio0.93
Upside Potential Ratio2.49
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms21
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error33
t(b)0.48
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.71
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)2.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.05
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df34
t0.83
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.63
Sortino ratio0.81
Upside Potential Ratio2.35
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms21
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error33
t(b)0.58
p(b)0.28
t(a)0.63
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)1.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.06
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.52
df781
t0.90
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio0.72
Upside Potential Ratio5.75
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms253
N negative terms529
N of observations782
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error780
t(b)4.34
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.54
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)1.01
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.05
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df781
t0.80
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.60
Sortino ratio0.64
Upside Potential Ratio5.65
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms253
N negative terms529
N of observations782
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error780
t(b)4.38
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.49
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.89
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.93
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6809765137088512
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)8.43867263578124e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations35
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations782
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low115
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high133
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.69
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.06
Median0.07
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-450820544
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)273
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.81
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.44
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.63
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.99
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 200 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LBTYA long185Sep 18, 2019Oct 2, 2019($605)
NTES long19Sep 17, 2019Sep 27, 2019$47
VOD long260Sep 19, 2019Sep 27, 2019$42
EA long52Sep 19, 2019Sep 23, 2019($4)
DLTR long49Aug 2, 2019Aug 9, 2019($225)
DISCA long174Aug 6, 2019Aug 9, 2019($87)
CHTR long13Aug 6, 2019Aug 9, 2019$10
GOOG long4Aug 5, 2019Aug 9, 2019$112
ADBE long17Aug 5, 2019Aug 9, 2019$189
AM long3Aug 2, 2019Aug 9, 2019($2)
JD long181Aug 5, 2019Aug 9, 2019$115
DISCA long162Jul 19, 2019Aug 2, 2019($261)
XRAY long91Jul 26, 2019Jul 31, 2019($2)
SYMC long222Jul 16, 2019Jul 30, 2019($151)
ILMN long14Jul 12, 2019Jul 24, 2019($88)
XRAY long88Jul 9, 2019Jul 23, 2019($100)
EXPE long38Jul 9, 2019Jul 16, 2019$107
JD long166Jul 12, 2019Jul 15, 2019$108
DISH long131Jun 25, 2019Jul 2, 2019$39
CHTR long13Jun 25, 2019Jul 1, 2019$115
LRCX long29May 30, 2019Jun 5, 2019$92
QQQ long29May 31, 2019Jun 5, 2019$54
MDLZ long97May 24, 2019Jun 5, 2019$1
LRCX long25May 9, 2019May 22, 2019($267)
NXPI long98May 9, 2019May 22, 2019($445)
ORLY long28May 9, 2019May 22, 2019($113)
QQQ long27May 13, 2019May 17, 2019$75
PYPL long46May 3, 2019May 16, 2019$34
AMZN long3May 3, 2019May 6, 2019($49)
QQQ long27May 3, 2019May 6, 2019($71)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.