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Alpha and Omega

Futures · Started Mar 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-3.6%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
166
Win Trades
93.4%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
1.8%

About this strategy

Intraday trading, trading positions are closed for clearing. In exceptional cases, I can leave the trading position for clearing, and the position will be reduced to a minimum.

Trade is conducted by the most liquid instruments: e-mini 500, eurodollar.

Trade is mainly in the European session. The American session is affected, but to a lesser extent.

The type of strategy is active intraday. Positions are held for 10 minutes to several hours.

The strategy is quite aggressive.
The estimated goal is 15-25% per month.
I will try not to receive significant one-time losses, but I can not guarantee this by 100%.

To open the position limit orders are used.

Purpose: to collect a deposit of $ 50,000 (via subscription fee) and connect this strategy to my real trading account.

My English is pretty bad. But I will be happy with your questions - I will try to answer them.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2017233.956.2-32.8-55.0-110.2-534.5-2.5-2.5-2.6-2.7-37.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/16/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$9,500
Age115 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades166
# Profitable155
% Profitable93.4%
Avg trade duration18.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodAug 08, 2017 - Aug 14, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)-3.6%
Avg win$706
Avg loss$9,135

Ratios

W:L ratio1.09
Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Sortino Ratio-0.46
Calmar Ratio0.36

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.31
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life221.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-253.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-3.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity944.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$9,135
Avg Win$706
# Winners155
Sum Trade PL (losers)$100,489
Sum Trade PL (winners)$109,448
Num Months Winners2
# Losers11
% Winners93.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table5

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1097.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)18.29
Avg Trade Length0.80
Last Trade Ago3158

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-20.53
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats0.02
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean2.38
SD3.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df22
t0.87
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio3.97
Upside Potential Ratio5.13
Upside part of mean3.08
Downside part of mean-0.70
Upside SD3.72
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms20
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion2.38
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion3.79
Covariance-0.17
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)3.74
Mean Square Error14.60
DF error21
t(b)-0.79
p(b)0.61
t(a)1.15
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.97
Jensen alpha (a)3.74
Mean0.26
SD1.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.15
df22
t0.22
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.57
Sortino ratio0.29
Upside Potential Ratio1.41
Upside part of mean1.26
Downside part of mean-1.00
Upside SD1.36
Downside SD0.89
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms20
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion1.66
Covariance-0.04
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.63
Mean Square Error2.87
DF error21
t(b)-0.50
p(b)0.57
t(a)0.44
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.60
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.63
VaR(95%)0.54
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.62
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.39
Mean0.95
SD1.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df519
t1.14
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.20
Sortino ratio1.29
Upside Potential Ratio4.55
Upside part of mean3.38
Downside part of mean-2.42
Upside SD0.92
Downside SD0.74
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms457
N of observations520
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion0.95
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion1.18
Covariance-0.03
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.08
Mean Square Error1.39
DF error518
t(b)-1.44
p(b)0.93
t(a)1.28
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.74
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.60
Jensen alpha (a)1.08
Mean0.25
SD1.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.21
df519
t0.29
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.60
Sortino ratio0.27
Upside Potential Ratio3.31
Upside part of mean3.04
Downside part of mean-2.79
Upside SD0.78
Downside SD0.92
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms457
N of observations520
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion1.21
Covariance-0.02
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error1.45
DF error518
t(b)-1.29
p(b)0.90
t(a)0.42
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.97
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6810836194557952
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)5.36752667146847e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.37
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum6.10
Mean of quarter 10.78
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.98
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.57
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high2.48
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.58
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.66
Number of observations520
Minimum0.52
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.64
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low45
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high64
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.85
Quartile 10.85
Median0.85
Quartile 30.85
Maximum0.85
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.17
Quartile 10.35
Median0.53
Quartile 30.71
Maximum0.89
Mean of quarter 10.17
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.89
Inter Quartile Range0.36
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-400712640
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)6
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.34
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.55
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.32
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.29
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 618 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES U7short73Jul 7, 2017Aug 18, 2017($17,159)
ES U7short22Jul 7, 2017Jul 7, 2017$2,274
ES U7short22Jul 5, 2017Jul 5, 2017($601)
ES U7long20Jul 5, 2017Jul 5, 2017$965
ES U7long6Jul 5, 2017Jul 5, 2017$477
ES U7short6Jul 5, 2017Jul 5, 2017$402
ES U7short4Jul 4, 2017Jul 4, 2017$1,018
ES U7short17Jul 2, 2017Jul 3, 2017$3,727
ES U7short10Jun 30, 2017Jun 30, 2017$2,170
ES U7short14Jun 19, 2017Jun 29, 2017($2,525)
ES U7short40Jun 15, 2017Jun 16, 2017($19,358)
ES M7short97May 19, 2017Jun 16, 2017($44,539)
ES U7short8Jun 15, 2017Jun 15, 2017$736
ES U7short18Jun 14, 2017Jun 15, 2017$9,506
ES U7short6Jun 13, 2017Jun 13, 2017$202
ES U7short5Jun 13, 2017Jun 13, 2017$1,023
ES M7long2May 19, 2017May 19, 2017$134
ES M7short4May 18, 2017May 18, 2017$479
ES M7long36May 17, 2017May 18, 2017$2,843
ES M7short14May 17, 2017May 17, 2017$2,099
ES M7short75May 5, 2017May 17, 2017$3,692
ES M7short8May 4, 2017May 4, 2017$801
ES M7short4May 4, 2017May 4, 2017$543
ES M7short14May 3, 2017May 4, 2017$1,524
ES M7short6May 3, 2017May 3, 2017$402
ES M7short2May 3, 2017May 3, 2017$49
ES M7short30Apr 30, 2017May 3, 2017$1,196
ES M7short32Apr 25, 2017Apr 28, 2017($1,506)
ES M7long6Apr 25, 2017Apr 25, 2017$352
ES M7short4Apr 25, 2017Apr 25, 2017$243

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.