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QT DayTrader Gold

Stocks · Started Feb 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.4%
Max Drawdown
14.6%
Trades
268
Win Trades
43.3%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
3.5%

About this strategy

This is a long-only day trading system with max allocation set at 100%. All positions are closed at the end of the day with no overnight market risks.

In order to preserve the effectiveness of the strategy the number of subscribers will be limited to 10.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201714.2-0.61.32.5-2.82.1-9.5-0.70.00.00.05.1
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/20/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age116 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades268
# Profitable116
% Profitable43.3%
Avg trade duration2.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.6%
drawdown periodJune 16, 2017 - Aug 28, 2017
Cumul. Return5.5%
Avg win$487
Avg loss$322

Ratios

W:L ratio1.16
Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Sortino Ratio-0.44
Calmar Ratio0.74

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life226.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)0.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity16.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss8.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)683
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)853
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)722

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$322
Avg Win$487
# Winners116
Sum Trade PL (losers)$48,888
Sum Trade PL (winners)$56,527
Num Months Winners4
# Losers152
% Winners43.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table116

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)175.92
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.93
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago3291

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index-5.11

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3884.82
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.39
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats65.06
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats43.44
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.39
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.44
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.31
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.06
df5
t0.89
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.90
Sortino ratio3.25
Upside Potential Ratio5.23
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms2
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.04
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error4
t(b)-0.04
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
Mean0.28
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.00
df5
t0.84
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.84
Sortino ratio2.89
Upside Potential Ratio4.87
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms2
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.04
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error4
t(b)-0.01
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.69
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.25
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.41
df139
t1.03
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.09
Sortino ratio2.72
Upside Potential Ratio12.12
Upside part of mean1.13
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms74
N of observations140
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error138
t(b)0.11
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.02
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)10.91
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
Mean0.24
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.33
df139
t0.98
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.02
Sortino ratio2.53
Upside Potential Ratio11.91
Upside part of mean1.12
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms74
N of observations140
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error138
t(b)0.13
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.97
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.72
Treynor index (mean / b)9.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.04
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.29
df130
t-0.21
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.48
Sortino ratio-0.45
Upside Potential Ratio9.17
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.93
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms59
N negative terms72
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)0.70
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.24
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.05
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.37
df130
t-0.26
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.40
Sortino ratio-0.56
Upside Potential Ratio9.05
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.93
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms59
N negative terms72
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)0.70
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.29
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.44
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.98
Median1.03
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations140
Minimum0.97
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.09
Median0.09
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)73
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.28
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.29
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.65
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.63
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.17
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.40

Trading record

Placed 930 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
DUST long496Sep 1, 2017Sep 1, 2017($362)
NUGT long1014Aug 31, 2017Aug 31, 2017$242
DUST long507Aug 31, 2017Aug 31, 2017($375)
NUGT long1025Aug 31, 2017Aug 31, 2017($21)
NUGT long1067Aug 30, 2017Aug 30, 2017($622)
DUST long1131Aug 30, 2017Aug 30, 2017$64
DUST long1146Aug 29, 2017Aug 29, 2017($643)
DUST long499Aug 29, 2017Aug 29, 2017$31
NUGT long1084Aug 28, 2017Aug 28, 2017$2,127
NUGT long1123Aug 25, 2017Aug 25, 2017($441)
DUST long1034Aug 25, 2017Aug 25, 2017($65)
DUST long448Aug 25, 2017Aug 25, 2017($425)
DUST long1115Aug 24, 2017Aug 24, 2017$63
NUGT long1149Aug 24, 2017Aug 24, 2017$42
NUGT long1164Aug 23, 2017Aug 23, 2017$154
DUST long1100Aug 23, 2017Aug 23, 2017($548)
DUST long1607Aug 22, 2017Aug 22, 2017($154)
DUST long487Aug 21, 2017Aug 21, 2017($214)
DUST long2105Aug 18, 2017Aug 18, 2017$595
DUST long1393Aug 17, 2017Aug 17, 2017($416)
NUGT long1218Aug 16, 2017Aug 16, 2017$1,166
DUST long1389Aug 16, 2017Aug 16, 2017($1,554)
NUGT long618Aug 16, 2017Aug 16, 2017$20
NUGT long1256Aug 15, 2017Aug 15, 2017($322)
DUST long1367Aug 15, 2017Aug 15, 2017($528)
DUST long1430Aug 14, 2017Aug 14, 2017($115)
NUGT long1177Aug 11, 2017Aug 11, 2017$7
DUST long1486Aug 11, 2017Aug 11, 2017($752)
NUGT long1182Aug 10, 2017Aug 10, 2017($24)
DUST long1501Aug 10, 2017Aug 10, 2017($594)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.