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30k Futures Portfolio

Equity · Futures · Started Feb 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.0%
Max Drawdown
37.4%
Trades
1208
Win Trades
52.5%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
10.6%

About this strategy

30k Futures Portfolio is a portfolio than combines 11 trading systems working over S&P500 futures and commodities:

- Five over E-mini S&P500 futures
- Two over Soybeans futures
- One over Bund futures
- One over E-mini DAX futures
- One over Crude Oil futures
- One over Natural Gas futures

It includes the five trading systems of 25k E-mini S&P500 Portfolio also published in Collective2 (https://www.collective2.com/details/102237387)

Portfolio is designed to work with starting account size of 30.000 USD.

You can obtain backtesting information here:
http://www.sistemasdebolsa.com/30k-futures-portfolio/

https://forums.collective2.com/t/new-30k-futures-portfolio-strategy/9318

Momentum Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20178.50.8-3.94.912.6-10.519.13.25.43.3-9.035.2
2018-5.79.7-5.72.9-2.7-4.54.3-8.52.9-23.90.00.0-30.3
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/13/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,000
Age116 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades1208
# Profitable634
% Profitable52.5%
Avg trade duration7.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown37.4%
drawdown periodDec 07, 2017 - Oct 22, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.0%
Avg win$234
Avg loss$235

Ratios

W:L ratio1.10
Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Sortino Ratio-0.28
Calmar Ratio0.76

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life229.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-21.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity62.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss31.0%
Chance of 20% account loss9.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated81.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)538
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)827
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)748

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$235
Avg Win$234
# Winners634
Sum Trade PL (losers)$135,112
Sum Trade PL (winners)$148,155
Num Months Winners12
# Losers574
% Winners52.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table115

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)448.07
Avg Position Time (hrs)7.47
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago2876

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.47

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1256.09
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats51.49
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats46.54
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.53
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.00

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.21
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.01
df19
t1.36
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.56
Sortino ratio1.63
Upside Potential Ratio2.95
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms6
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.84
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error18
t(b)1.51
p(b)0.33
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)0.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.19
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.89
df19
t1.20
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.44
Sortino ratio1.37
Upside Potential Ratio2.66
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms6
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.93
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error18
t(b)1.67
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.76
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.20
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df437
t1.54
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.71
Sortino ratio1.71
Upside Potential Ratio9.22
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms238
N negative terms200
N of observations438
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error436
t(b)1.11
p(b)0.13
t(a)1.49
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)2.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.19
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.10
df437
t1.43
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.62
Sortino ratio1.57
Upside Potential Ratio9.02
Upside part of mean1.07
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms238
N negative terms200
N of observations438
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error436
t(b)1.20
p(b)0.12
t(a)1.38
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)2.18
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.32
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.78
df130
t-1.27
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00
Sortino ratio-2.13
Upside Potential Ratio5.03
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-1.07
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.32
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.34
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)3.37
p(b)0.32
t(a)-1.40
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.68
Jensen alpha (a)-0.34
Mean-0.33
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.85
df130
t-1.32
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Sortino ratio-2.19
Upside Potential Ratio4.89
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-1.08
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.33
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.35
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)3.52
p(b)0.31
t(a)-1.44
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.68
Jensen alpha (a)-0.35
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations20
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.33
Number of observations438
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.04
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.28
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-37
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)319
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.43
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.48
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.62
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-11.05

Trading record

Placed 2459 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
DXM Z8long1Oct 22, 2018Oct 22, 2018($198)
DXM Z8long1Oct 22, 2018Oct 22, 2018$171
QCL Z8short1Oct 19, 2018Oct 21, 2018($158)
QHO X8long1Oct 19, 2018Oct 19, 2018$122
QRB X8long1Oct 19, 2018Oct 19, 2018($541)
ES Z8short1Oct 19, 2018Oct 19, 2018($508)
QRB X8long1Oct 18, 2018Oct 18, 2018($512)
TY Z8long1Oct 18, 2018Oct 18, 2018($40)
QHO X8long1Oct 18, 2018Oct 18, 2018$9
ES Z8long1Oct 18, 2018Oct 18, 2018($33)
HE Z8short1Oct 18, 2018Oct 18, 2018$42
TY Z8long1Oct 16, 2018Oct 17, 2018($86)
DXM Z8long1Oct 16, 2018Oct 16, 2018$44
TY Z8long1Oct 16, 2018Oct 16, 2018($8)
ES Z8short1Oct 16, 2018Oct 16, 2018($471)
ES Z8long1Oct 15, 2018Oct 15, 2018($258)
QHG Z8long1Oct 15, 2018Oct 15, 2018$205
JY Z8long1Oct 14, 2018Oct 15, 2018$317
QCL X8long1Oct 12, 2018Oct 12, 2018($58)
HE Z8short1Oct 12, 2018Oct 12, 2018($598)
QM X8short1Oct 12, 2018Oct 12, 2018$255
ES Z8short1Oct 12, 2018Oct 12, 2018$217
QM X8long1Oct 12, 2018Oct 12, 2018($21)
QM X8long1Oct 12, 2018Oct 12, 2018($8)
QHO X8long1Oct 11, 2018Oct 11, 2018$139
QM X8long1Oct 11, 2018Oct 11, 2018($58)
QM X8long1Oct 11, 2018Oct 11, 2018$5
ES Z8long2Oct 10, 2018Oct 10, 2018($291)
ES Z8long2Oct 10, 2018Oct 10, 2018($5,016)
QHO X8long1Oct 10, 2018Oct 10, 2018($277)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.