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SNIPER STKS OPTS FUTURES

Futures · Stocks · Started Dec 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
1805
Win Trades
63.6%
Profit Factor
0.60
Win Months
18.6%

About this strategy

Stocks will be chosen on the basis of strong earnings, revenues, and superior chart analysis. We will use trailing stop loss limits to keep losses to a minimum and let profits run in an attempt to minimize draw-downs and maximize returns. We may also use Options or Index Futures to enhance our returns.

Macro / Fundamental

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20160.70.7
20176.92.9-1.26.9-0.42.59.76.3-1.22.54.5-2.043.5
2018-0.6-0.52.8-1.40.18.54.64.83.2-7.1-0.3-4.29.5
20193.30.1-5.5-0.9-3.20.44.70.3-1.1-4.02.6-4.2-7.6
20204.3-53.7-65.8-858.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-225.3
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/10/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age119 months
What it tradesStocks, Futures
# Trades1805
# Profitable1148
% Profitable63.6%
Avg trade duration4.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodApril 05, 2020 - April 05, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$392
Avg loss$1,082

Ratios

W:L ratio0.64
Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Sortino Ratio-0.48
Calmar Ratio-0.82

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life236.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-519.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.3%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered38.6%
Percent Trades Stocks0.7%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss12.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,082
Avg Win$392
# Winners1148
Sum Trade PL (losers)$710,915
Sum Trade PL (winners)$449,613
Num Months Winners22
# Losers657
% Winners63.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct2121

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table41

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6094.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)101.57
Avg Trade Length4.20
Last Trade Ago2349

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.05
Daily leverage (max)17.80

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.22
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.64
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.39
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats60.96
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats33.60
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.80
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.10
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.24
df78
t-0.63
p0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.52
Sortino ratio-0.25
Upside Potential Ratio0.36
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms57
N of observations79
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.03
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.22
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error77
t(b)3.09
p(b)0.00
t(a)-1.41
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.14
Jensen alpha (a)-0.22
Mean-1.78
SD4.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.38
df78
t-0.97
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39
Sortino ratio-0.38
Upside Potential Ratio0.03
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-1.91
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD4.68
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms57
N of observations79
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-1.78
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion4.68
Covariance0.33
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)9.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.19
Mean Square Error19.18
DF error77
t(b)3.48
p(b)0.00
t(a)-1.82
p(a)0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta14.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-3.19
VaR(95%)0.91
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.94
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean-0.23
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.44
df1744
t-1.14
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.32
Sortino ratio-0.48
Upside Potential Ratio1.14
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.47
N nonnegative terms428
N negative terms1317
N of observations1745
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.23
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance0.01
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.25
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error1743
t(b)2.40
p(b)0.46
t(a)-1.26
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.57
Jensen alpha (a)-0.25
Mean-1.76
SD4.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.42
df1744
t-1.08
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.34
Sortino ratio-0.42
Upside Potential Ratio0.12
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-2.28
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD4.19
N nonnegative terms428
N negative terms1317
N of observations1745
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-1.76
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion4.19
Covariance-0.09
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.43
Mean Square Error17.39
DF error1743
t(b)-4.37
p(b)0.57
t(a)-0.88
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.74
Treynor index (mean / b)0.83
Jensen alpha (a)-1.43
VaR(95%)0.35
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.42
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6819469078822912
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)4.60909835426733e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations79
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations1745
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.35
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low373
Percentage of outliers low0.21
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high435
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.52
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations39
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.78
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.42
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-403878560
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2280
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.58
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.88
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.82
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-5.91
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.98
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 2093 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES H0long6Mar 5, 2020Apr 5, 2020($320,648)
VX J0short1Mar 5, 2020Mar 8, 2020($4,858)
ES H0long3Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020$5,151
ES H0long10Feb 25, 2020Mar 3, 2020($15,180)
ES H0short9Feb 4, 2020Feb 23, 2020($722)
ES H0short3Feb 3, 2020Feb 3, 2020$839
ES H0long2Jan 24, 2020Jan 24, 2020$497
ES H0short6Jan 23, 2020Jan 24, 2020$3,827
ES H0short6Jan 15, 2020Jan 23, 2020($6,911)
ES H0short3Jan 14, 2020Jan 14, 2020$126
ES H0short3Jan 13, 2020Jan 13, 2020($1,149)
ES H0short3Jan 13, 2020Jan 13, 2020$201
ES H0long3Jan 10, 2020Jan 10, 2020$464
ES H0short2Jan 9, 2020Jan 10, 2020($166)
ES H0short3Jan 8, 2020Jan 8, 2020$351
ES H0short3Jan 7, 2020Jan 7, 2020$276
ES H0short3Jan 6, 2020Jan 6, 2020$276
ES H0short3Jan 6, 2020Jan 6, 2020$576
ES H0long3Jan 6, 2020Jan 6, 2020$51
ES H0long3Jan 6, 2020Jan 6, 2020$201
ES H0short5Jan 3, 2020Jan 3, 2020$485
ES H0short12Dec 13, 2019Jan 3, 2020($2,384)
ES H0long3Dec 12, 2019Dec 12, 2019$389
ES Z9long3Dec 11, 2019Dec 11, 2019$276
ES Z9long3Dec 5, 2019Dec 6, 2019$801
ES Z9long4Dec 5, 2019Dec 5, 2019$506
ES Z9short3Dec 4, 2019Dec 4, 2019$1,476
ES Z9long3Dec 2, 2019Dec 4, 2019($849)
ES Z9long4Dec 2, 2019Dec 2, 2019$618
ES Z9long2Nov 27, 2019Nov 27, 2019$309

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.