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Move North Stock Fund

Equity · Stocks · Started Nov 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
11.3%
Max Drawdown
36.6%
Trades
171
Win Trades
40.9%
Profit Factor
2
Win Months
31.1%

About this strategy

Move North Stock Fund is an actively managed, hypothetical portfolio of stocks and exchange traded funds (ETFs). The fund is not managed using an automated trading algorithm. Instead, I perform fundamental and technical analysis of individual stocks and ETFs and buy those that exhibit characteristics which, according to my research, often lead to significant capital gains in the near future (typically between 2-3 months to 2-3 years). I apply selling rules for profit taking and in order to control risk.

The goal of the fund is to provide long term investors with superior risk-adjusted returns compared to stock market indices. While I encourage you to examine the fund’s historical performance when deciding whether to subscribe, note that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The fund consists of only long positions, and never holds inverse ETFs, leveraged ETFs or any derivative securities such as options and futures. Depending on market conditions the fund may hold bond and commodity ETFs, stay largely in cash, or use limited margin, not to exceed about 35% of the fund's equity. All orders are decided upon and placed after the close of the market.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016-0.41.41.0
20171.10.86.03.313.30.90.90.44.22.60.40.739.8
201810.5-4.3-1.80.56.1-2.8-3.39.80.3-12.50.6-7.0-6.3
20192.44.3-2.14.7-9.37.85.1-3.9-3.3-1.24.62.510.7
20200.91.0-21.111.89.59.211.815.98.2-13.622.310.976.9
20211.7-8.2-5.2-1.3-4.7-1.4-1.9-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-20.1
2022-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.30.0-0.2-0.30.0-1.9
2023-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.20.00.00.0-1.6
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/28/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age119 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades171
# Profitable70
% Profitable40.9%
Avg trade duration140.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown36.6%
drawdown periodFeb 21, 2020 - March 23, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)11.3%
Avg win$912
Avg loss$322

Ratios

W:L ratio1.99
Sharpe Ratio0.36
Sortino Ratio0.47
Calmar Ratio0.52

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.42
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life244.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)17.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)11.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity50.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss51.5%
Chance of 20% account loss22.0%
Chance of 30% account loss4.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)312
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$322
Avg Win$912
# Winners70
Sum Trade PL (losers)$32,560
Sum Trade PL (winners)$63,840
Num Months Winners37
# Losers101
% Winners40.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct893

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table119

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)202429.20
Avg Position Time (hrs)3373.82
Avg Trade Length140.60
Last Trade Ago1880

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.85
Daily leverage (max)1.39

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.35
Treynor Index0.05

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.64
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.66
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats17.76
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats12.25
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.16
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.61

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.17
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.68
df60
t1.55
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.55
Sortino ratio1.01
Upside Potential Ratio2.26
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms25
N of observations61
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.04
r0.71
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.83
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error59
t(b)7.67
p(b)0
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.13
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.53
df60
t1.20
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.40
Sortino ratio0.72
Upside Potential Ratio1.90
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms25
N of observations61
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.04
r0.75
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.84
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error59
t(b)8.70
p(b)0
t(a)0.59
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.15
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df1336
t1.84
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Sortino ratio1.08
Upside Potential Ratio7.33
Upside part of mean1.03
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms689
N negative terms648
N of observations1337
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.02
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1335
t(b)18.88
p(b)0.22
t(a)1.40
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.13
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df1336
t1.61
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio0.94
Upside Potential Ratio7.11
Upside part of mean1.02
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms689
N negative terms648
N of observations1337
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.02
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1335
t(b)19.17
p(b)0.22
t(a)1.28
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.04
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6865474084143104
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.7992607387236e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations61
Minimum0.71
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.78
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations1337
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low71
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high51
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.07
Median0.12
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.17
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations45
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.27
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.26
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-378475648
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)31
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.25
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.36
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.25
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.55
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.37
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.59
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 238 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EFX long22Apr 23, 2021Jul 19, 2021$647
PPG long28Apr 19, 2021Jul 19, 2021($14)
UTHR long36Apr 5, 2021Jul 19, 2021($398)
TRGP long98Jun 10, 2021Jul 19, 2021($535)
BA long30Mar 8, 2021Jul 19, 2021($657)
ERII long226Apr 22, 2021May 11, 2021($767)
SGH long87Apr 8, 2021May 11, 2021($1,027)
PD long128Mar 10, 2021May 11, 2021($550)
AVYA long166Mar 8, 2021May 11, 2021($562)
CGC long280Jan 8, 2021Apr 8, 2021($223)
ADNT long104Mar 15, 2021Mar 24, 2021($901)
SCPL long280Feb 10, 2021Mar 24, 2021($1,672)
STRO long375Dec 7, 2020Mar 5, 2021($1,066)
PD long140Dec 7, 2020Mar 5, 2021($350)
CASA long506Feb 22, 2021Mar 5, 2021($1,670)
RUN long116Feb 4, 2021Feb 19, 2021($562)
RUN long234Jul 8, 2020Jan 28, 2021$10,479
SAIL long229Aug 10, 2020Jan 28, 2021$3,494
Z long93Aug 10, 2020Jan 28, 2021$4,490
STNE long160Jun 4, 2020Jan 28, 2021$5,459
UPS long46Jul 31, 2020Jan 6, 2021$685
SPY long16Sep 24, 2020Dec 9, 2020$794
WDAY long34Sep 8, 2020Nov 30, 2020$517
CRM long18Sep 8, 2020Sep 24, 2020($85)
YETI long174Jun 1, 2020Sep 21, 2020$1,883
CIEN long104Apr 30, 2020Sep 4, 2020($751)
SNAP long288Apr 23, 2020Aug 25, 2020$1,100
NUS long86Jul 6, 2020Aug 7, 2020($179)
EXEL long168Jun 22, 2020Aug 4, 2020($116)
SEDG long35Apr 21, 2020Jun 26, 2020$1,660

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.