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Event Hunter

Futures · Futures · Started Nov 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
8.3%
Max Drawdown
56.7%
Trades
468
Win Trades
56.6%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
10.1%

About this strategy

Nothing to say.

Macro / Fundamental

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20160.913.714.7
20175.2-0.610.99.5-9.0-1.111.9-1.010.2-12.4-0.2-36.8-23.0
201817.644.154.67.4-10.5-3.25.0-2.8-0.60.00.0-0.4146.3
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/24/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age119 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades468
# Profitable265
% Profitable56.6%
Avg trade duration3.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown56.7%
drawdown periodNov 13, 2017 - Dec 18, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)8.3%
Avg win$1,792
Avg loss$1,688

Ratios

W:L ratio1.39
Sharpe Ratio0.31
Sortino Ratio0.50
Calmar Ratio0.78

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life247.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-133.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)8.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity21.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss62.0%
Chance of 20% account loss36.5%
Chance of 30% account loss17.5%
Chance of 40% account loss8.0%
Chance of 50% account loss1.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,688
Avg Win$1,792
# Winners265
Sum Trade PL (losers)$342,562
Sum Trade PL (winners)$474,811
Num Months Winners12
# Losers203
% Winners56.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table119

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5307.90
Avg Position Time (hrs)88.46
Avg Trade Length3.70
Last Trade Ago2920

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta-0.07
Treynor Index-0.35

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.08
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats48.76
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats48.01
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.69
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.46
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.15

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.42
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.79
df30
t1.30
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio1.73
Upside Potential Ratio3.00
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.47
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms18
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance-0.03
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.57
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error29
t(b)-0.96
p(b)0.83
t(a)1.58
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.57
Mean0.30
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df30
t0.98
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.82
Sortino ratio1.04
Upside Potential Ratio2.25
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms18
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance-0.02
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error29
t(b)-0.84
p(b)0.80
t(a)1.23
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean0.38
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.92
df682
t1.48
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio1.48
Upside Potential Ratio6.92
Upside part of mean1.77
Downside part of mean-1.39
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms223
N negative terms460
N of observations683
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error681
t(b)-1.68
p(b)0.95
t(a)1.63
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.92
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
Mean0.30
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.73
df682
t1.18
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.94
Sortino ratio1.11
Upside Potential Ratio6.46
Upside part of mean1.72
Downside part of mean-1.42
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms223
N negative terms460
N of observations683
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error681
t(b)-1.63
p(b)0.95
t(a)1.30
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.82
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.11
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.98
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6819973737480192
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.99117432759513e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations31
Minimum0.67
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.50
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.22
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations683
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low96
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high94
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.14
Median0.18
Quartile 30.30
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.11
Mean of quarter 20.18
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations29
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.49
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.46
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.82
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.27
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-423021920
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)35
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.51
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.39
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.93
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.93
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.66
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.51
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.78
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.80
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.75
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1037 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EZ U8short20Apr 17, 2018Sep 6, 2018($4,701)
BD U8short10Apr 6, 2018Sep 6, 2018($20,457)
QGC M8long8Apr 23, 2018May 15, 2018($9,744)
ES M8short6Apr 20, 2018Apr 22, 2018$4,452
QHG K8long8Apr 4, 2018Apr 16, 2018$16,586
QGC K8long4Apr 11, 2018Apr 11, 2018$3,328
ES M8long10Apr 6, 2018Apr 11, 2018$3,420
BD U8short8Apr 3, 2018Apr 4, 2018($3,208)
QHG K8long4Mar 25, 2018Apr 4, 2018$3,668
ES M8short15Mar 7, 2018Mar 25, 2018$76,568
QHG K8long8Mar 16, 2018Mar 19, 2018($12,964)
QHG J8long6Mar 5, 2018Mar 7, 2018$4,452
NQ H8short4Feb 22, 2018Mar 5, 2018($992)
ES H8short4Feb 22, 2018Mar 5, 2018$5,918
QHG J8long6Feb 22, 2018Feb 22, 2018($1,323)
NKD H8long4Feb 22, 2018Feb 22, 2018$468
ES H8long4Feb 22, 2018Feb 22, 2018($1,682)
ES H8short8Feb 21, 2018Feb 22, 2018($11,164)
QHG J8long4Feb 21, 2018Feb 21, 2018($632)
NKD H8long2Feb 21, 2018Feb 21, 2018($1,966)
ES H8short4Feb 16, 2018Feb 21, 2018$368
QNG J8long4Feb 15, 2018Feb 19, 2018($92)
NKD H8long2Feb 14, 2018Feb 14, 2018$2,634
ES H8short2Feb 13, 2018Feb 14, 2018($491)
QGC J8short2Feb 13, 2018Feb 14, 2018$1,214
ES H8short2Feb 13, 2018Feb 13, 2018$259
ES H8short2Feb 9, 2018Feb 9, 2018($1,216)
ES H8short4Feb 8, 2018Feb 8, 2018$13,668
ES H8short4Feb 8, 2018Feb 8, 2018($1,282)
ES H8short8Feb 7, 2018Feb 7, 2018$14,411

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.