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Russell Trending

Futures · Started Dec 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.0%
Max Drawdown
38.1%
Trades
53
Win Trades
60.4%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
1.7%

About this strategy

The overall market trend dictates whether buying or selling, entry points and exits are based on support/resistance and price. The support and resistance levels are based on multiple time frames, when properly aligned the trade is executed. Also, entry/exit indicators are based on a proprietary model developed by years of testing and daily trading. No trades are left unattended, if a position reverses and breaks support they will be closed. Stop Loss will be used to prevent big losses. Positive trades will run until they exhaust themselves.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201611.011.0
201718.4-17.7-11.9-1.7-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.9-1.9-1.9-2.00.0-26.1
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/7/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$14,000
Age119 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades53
# Profitable32
% Profitable60.4%
Avg trade duration1.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown38.1%
drawdown periodFeb 01, 2017 - Nov 05, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.0%
Avg win$285
Avg loss$355

Ratios

W:L ratio1.22
Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Sortino Ratio-0.80
Calmar Ratio0.33

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life241.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-260.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity61.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$355
Avg Win$285
# Winners32
Sum Trade PL (losers)$7,451
Sum Trade PL (winners)$9,113
Num Months Winners2
# Losers21
% Winners60.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table118

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)60.32
Avg Position Time (hrs)1
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago3452

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index-10.19

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades38.63
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.04
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats5.46
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats47.23
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.64
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.03
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df20
t0.35
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.74
Sortino ratio0.47
Upside Potential Ratio1.51
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms19
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.75
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.01
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error19
t(b)-0.37
p(b)0.55
t(a)0.48
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.04
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.15
df20
t0.21
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.64
Sortino ratio0.26
Upside Potential Ratio1.27
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms19
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.68
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.01
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error19
t(b)-0.31
p(b)0.55
t(a)0.34
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.72
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.04
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df459
t0.54
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio0.60
Upside Potential Ratio3.87
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms423
N of observations460
Mean of predictor0.75
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error458
t(b)0.08
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.52
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)39.90
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.04
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.36
df459
t0.47
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio0.52
Upside Potential Ratio3.77
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms423
N of observations460
Mean of predictor0.67
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error458
t(b)0.10
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.46
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)31.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.14
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.02
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6808873931374592
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.7506396822e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.83
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations460
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high38
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.95
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.19
Quartile 10.19
Median0.19
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-405067840
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)277
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.54
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.21
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 85 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TFS M7long2Mar 22, 2017Mar 22, 2017($406)
TFS M7long2Mar 22, 2017Mar 22, 2017($26)
TFS M7long2Mar 15, 2017Mar 15, 2017$374
TFS M7short2Mar 13, 2017Mar 13, 2017($186)
TFS M7short2Mar 13, 2017Mar 13, 2017($486)
TFS M7short2Mar 10, 2017Mar 10, 2017$174
TFS M7long2Mar 10, 2017Mar 10, 2017$69
TFS H7long2Mar 8, 2017Mar 8, 2017($346)
TFS H7long2Mar 8, 2017Mar 8, 2017$66
TFS H7long2Mar 8, 2017Mar 8, 2017($366)
TFS H7short2Mar 6, 2017Mar 6, 2017($9)
TFS H7short2Mar 6, 2017Mar 6, 2017($424)
TFS H7short2Mar 3, 2017Mar 3, 2017($481)
TFS H7short2Mar 2, 2017Mar 2, 2017$499
TFS H7long2Mar 1, 2017Mar 1, 2017$164
TFS H7long2Feb 28, 2017Feb 28, 2017($480)
TFS H7short2Feb 27, 2017Feb 27, 2017($649)
TFS H7short2Feb 24, 2017Feb 24, 2017($365)
TFS H7short2Feb 24, 2017Feb 24, 2017($680)
TFS H7long2Feb 23, 2017Feb 23, 2017$233
TFS H7short2Feb 22, 2017Feb 22, 2017($114)
TFS H7short2Feb 22, 2017Feb 22, 2017($30)
TFS H7short2Feb 21, 2017Feb 21, 2017($282)
TFS H7long2Feb 21, 2017Feb 21, 2017($528)
TFS H7short2Feb 17, 2017Feb 17, 2017$87
TFS H7long2Feb 15, 2017Feb 15, 2017$77
TFS H7short2Feb 13, 2017Feb 13, 2017$114
TFS H7short2Feb 6, 2017Feb 6, 2017$650
TFS H7short2Feb 6, 2017Feb 6, 2017($365)
TFS H7long2Feb 1, 2017Feb 1, 2017($520)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.