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Ultron VIX Swing

Stocks · Started Sep 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
26.9%
Max Drawdown
47.3%
Trades
46
Win Trades
67.4%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
13.3%

About this strategy

The system will take swingtrades only if there is a strong setup in place supported by propreitary volality indicators.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016429.08.934.6-0.9668.5
201748.15.80.6-3.93.66.54.0-13.421.2-0.114.4-0.9106.8
2018-8.2-20.9-5.25.45.8-1.210.63.12.7-23.6-0.1-0.1-32.3
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/19/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age121 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades46
# Profitable31
% Profitable67.4%
Avg trade duration14.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown47.3%
drawdown periodOct 28, 2016 - Nov 03, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)26.9%
Avg win$20,077
Avg loss$24,081

Ratios

W:L ratio1.72
Sharpe Ratio0.55
Sortino Ratio1.48
Calmar Ratio3.29

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life258.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)718.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)26.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)27.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity55.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss62.0%
Chance of 20% account loss39.5%
Chance of 30% account loss21.5%
Chance of 40% account loss13.5%
Chance of 50% account loss2.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$24,081
Avg Win$20,077
# Winners31
Sum Trade PL (losers)$361,216
Sum Trade PL (winners)$622,386
Num Months Winners16
# Losers15
% Winners67.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table121

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)20212.43
Avg Position Time (hrs)336.87
Avg Trade Length14
Last Trade Ago2884

Regression

Alpha0.08
Beta0.24
Treynor Index0.36

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.07
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.12
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.05
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.79
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-3.84
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats93.96
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats14.93
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.41
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.36

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.92
SD2.76
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.68
df34
t1.19
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.84
Sortino ratio7.50
Upside Potential Ratio8.77
Upside part of mean2.25
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD2.77
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms20
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion1.92
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion2.76
Covariance-0.05
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.05
Mean Square Error7.86
DF error33
t(b)-0.24
p(b)0.60
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.56
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.65
Jensen alpha (a)2.05
Mean0.81
SD1.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df34
t1.25
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio2.75
Upside Potential Ratio4.00
Upside part of mean1.17
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD1.07
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms20
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.81
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion1.10
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.80
Mean Square Error1.25
DF error33
t(b)0.01
p(b)0.49
t(a)1.18
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.20
Treynor index (mean / b)102.77
Jensen alpha (a)0.80
VaR(95%)0.37
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.44
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean1.07
SD0.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.26
df777
t2.18
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.40
Sortino ratio3.49
Upside Potential Ratio7.70
Upside part of mean2.36
Downside part of mean-1.29
Upside SD0.79
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms226
N negative terms552
N of observations778
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion1.07
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.85
Covariance0.02
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.97
Mean Square Error0.72
DF error776
t(b)2.26
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.98
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.94
Treynor index (mean / b)4.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.97
Mean0.79
SD0.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.12
df777
t1.94
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.26
Sortino ratio2.43
Upside Potential Ratio6.54
Upside part of mean2.14
Downside part of mean-1.34
Upside SD0.63
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms226
N negative terms552
N of observations778
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.79
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.70
Covariance0.02
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.71
Mean Square Error0.49
DF error776
t(b)2.67
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.73
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.51
Treynor index (mean / b)3.72
Jensen alpha (a)0.71
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.31
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.19
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6785449716613120
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)6.62972646696122e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations35
Minimum0.72
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.09
Maximum5.68
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.71
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.76
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high2.42
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.22
Number of observations778
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.86
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low112
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high165
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)3.49
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.14
Median0.25
Quartile 30.29
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.25
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.32
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high0.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.34
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-369572864
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)6
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.58
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.96
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.27
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.84
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.33
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 188 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SVXY long5250Oct 4, 2018Oct 11, 2018($27,358)
ES Z8long10Oct 4, 2018Oct 10, 2018($55,830)
VXX1918M30 long100Mar 26, 2018Sep 18, 2018$19,360
SVXY long5250Feb 8, 2018Sep 18, 2018$83,148
SVXY long22500Feb 7, 2018Feb 8, 2018($41,776)
SVXY long25000Feb 6, 2018Feb 6, 2018$4,058
XIV long2500Jan 24, 2018Feb 5, 2018($106,296)
XIV long4500Jan 16, 2018Jan 24, 2018($175)
VXX long10000Dec 11, 2017Dec 13, 2017($3,691)
XIV long1000Dec 6, 2017Dec 6, 2017$512
XIV long5500Nov 9, 2017Nov 24, 2017$50,832
XIV long5500Aug 11, 2017Sep 29, 2017$114,832
XIV long6000Aug 8, 2017Aug 11, 2017($97,583)
XIV long4000Jul 6, 2017Jul 12, 2017$13,108
VXX short30000Jun 29, 2017Jun 29, 2017$19,798
XIV long1500Jun 12, 2017Jun 12, 2017$213
XIV long41000Apr 10, 2017May 19, 2017($3,172)
VXX long10000May 15, 2017May 16, 2017($755)
XIV long2000Apr 10, 2017Apr 10, 2017($1,009)
VXX short5000Apr 7, 2017Apr 7, 2017$445
VXX long7500Apr 5, 2017Apr 6, 2017$4,469
VXX long5000Mar 29, 2017Mar 30, 2017$1,159
VXX short30000Mar 24, 2017Mar 27, 2017$10,810
VXX short20000Mar 21, 2017Mar 23, 2017($15,123)
VXX long10000Mar 20, 2017Mar 21, 2017($1,984)
VXX long10000Mar 13, 2017Mar 14, 2017($902)
VXX short17500Mar 9, 2017Mar 13, 2017$6,418
VXX short10000Mar 2, 2017Mar 8, 2017$9,117
VXX long20000Feb 24, 2017Mar 1, 2017($708)
VXX short12500Feb 16, 2017Feb 21, 2017$7,234

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.