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SVXY Timer

Stocks · Started Sep 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-7.7%
Max Drawdown
85.1%
Trades
52
Win Trades
67.3%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
15.0%

About this strategy

A certified 100% Trades-Own-System strategy, SVXY Timer is a proprietary trading strategy using key variables predictive of the next-day % change in SVXY, an ETF tied to the VIX futures. This strategy will typically be either long SVXY or a comparable fund, short SVXY or a comparable fund, or in cash. We don't use leverage (i.e. the amount of our ETF allocations at any given time will not exceed NAV).

Because the system is designed to trade on signals derived from the trading algorithm, stop losses are not normally employed (back-testing shows that this takes you out of too many positions that end up being profitable). If you are not willing to experience draw-downs of 20% or more, you should consider setting your own stop loss positions although, as noted, this may hamper your long-term results.

To control downside risk without stop losses, we instead limit our exposures as noted above, and build into our model proprietary variables that are predictive of black-swan events. We also will go short volatility as well as long volatility in order to take advantage of market moves in either direction.

Important: we don't provide professional financial or investment advice specific to your situation; rather, we simply provide algorithmic (and in rare situations discretionary) trading signals for certain S&P 500 volatility (VIX) related exchange traded products based on proprietary analysis.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201622.8-1.715.1-3.833.7
201720.522.226.4-22.1-7.24.67.5-14.119.715.15.06.6100.6
20185.4-81.5-0.89.7-1.75.74.71.84.4-17.63.1-19.5-83.2
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/12/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age121 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades52
# Profitable35
% Profitable67.3%
Avg trade duration12.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown85.0%
drawdown periodFeb 01, 2018 - Feb 08, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)-7.7%
Avg win$979
Avg loss$2,280

Ratios

W:L ratio0.88
Sharpe Ratio-0.11
Sortino Ratio-0.12
Calmar Ratio-0.20

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life254.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-311.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-7.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-5.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity551.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss85.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)63.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)26.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,280
Avg Win$979
# Winners35
Sum Trade PL (losers)$38,761
Sum Trade PL (winners)$34,256
Num Months Winners18
# Losers17
% Winners67.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table121

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)18418.62
Avg Position Time (hrs)306.98
Avg Trade Length12.80
Last Trade Ago2804

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.95
Daily leverage (max)1.20

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.14
Treynor Index-0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.14
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.07
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.40
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-12.08
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.80
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats61.68
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats12.16
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.24
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.08
SD0.55
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.15
df38
t0.27
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.24
Sortino ratio0.18
Upside Potential Ratio1.12
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.47
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms20
N of observations39
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.55
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.31
DF error37
t(b)0.44
p(b)0.33
t(a)0.08
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.70
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean-0.21
SD0.95
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.22
df38
t-0.40
p0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.87
Sortino ratio-0.23
Upside Potential Ratio0.54
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.70
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.91
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms20
N of observations39
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion-0.21
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.95
Covariance0.02
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.34
Mean Square Error0.92
DF error37
t(b)0.62
p(b)0.27
t(a)-0.60
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.82
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.53
Jensen alpha (a)-0.34
VaR(95%)0.38
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.44
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
Mean-0.05
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.10
df861
t-0.18
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.98
Sortino ratio-0.10
Upside Potential Ratio2.67
Upside part of mean1.16
Downside part of mean-1.21
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.44
N nonnegative terms307
N negative terms555
N of observations862
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error860
t(b)2.30
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.37
p(a)0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
Mean-0.21
SD0.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.33
df861
t-0.59
p0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.75
Sortino ratio-0.34
Upside Potential Ratio1.86
Upside part of mean1.15
Downside part of mean-1.36
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.62
N nonnegative terms307
N negative terms555
N of observations862
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion-0.21
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.64
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.25
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error860
t(b)1.47
p(b)0.07
t(a)-0.70
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.94
Jensen alpha (a)-0.25
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.18
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.06
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6803726949941248
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.29476274437143e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations39
Minimum0.20
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.65
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.37
Number of observations862
Minimum0.38
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low110
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high113
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.20
Quartile 10.35
Median0.51
Quartile 30.66
Maximum0.81
Mean of quarter 10.20
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.81
Inter Quartile Range0.30
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations25
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.82
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.45
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-388440416
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)7
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.21
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.38
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.66
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.10
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 100 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SVXY long110Sep 4, 2018Dec 27, 2018($1,794)
SVXY long440Jul 27, 2018Aug 31, 2018($22)
SVXY long450Jun 26, 2018Jul 13, 2018$342
SVXY long420May 22, 2018Jun 7, 2018$118
SVXY long440May 15, 2018May 16, 2018($66)
SVXY long430Apr 25, 2018May 10, 2018$395
SVXY long425Apr 12, 2018Apr 19, 2018$349
SVXY long430Mar 16, 2018Mar 26, 2018($452)
SVXY long425Mar 7, 2018Mar 12, 2018$409
SVXY long400Feb 22, 2018Feb 27, 2018$448
SVXY long220Jan 30, 2018Feb 14, 2018($22,825)
XIV long180Jan 10, 2018Jan 12, 2018$781
SVXY short200Dec 26, 2017Dec 29, 2017($555)
SVXY long200Dec 21, 2017Dec 26, 2017($274)
SVXY long210Dec 6, 2017Dec 13, 2017$2,787
XIV long210Nov 30, 2017Dec 5, 2017($767)
SVXY long205Oct 25, 2017Nov 29, 2017$2,644
SVXY long200Oct 12, 2017Oct 23, 2017$1,577
XIV long205Sep 8, 2017Oct 3, 2017$4,015
XIV long205Aug 1, 2017Aug 31, 2017($2,785)
XIV short210Jul 20, 2017Jul 21, 2017$58
XIV long225Jul 7, 2017Jul 12, 2017$1,108
XIV long215May 23, 2017Jul 3, 2017$1,611
XIV long250May 11, 2017May 18, 2017($2,668)
XIV long250Apr 25, 2017May 8, 2017$1,061
SVXY short165Apr 18, 2017Apr 25, 2017($3,072)
SVXY long165Apr 3, 2017Apr 11, 2017($2,511)
SVXY long165Mar 30, 2017Mar 31, 2017($144)
SVXY long140Mar 27, 2017Mar 28, 2017$1,235
SVXY short140Mar 23, 2017Mar 27, 2017$895

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.