average expectancy27
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- -21.6%
- Max Drawdown
- 88.4%
- Trades
- 128
- Win Trades
- 75.8%
- Profit Factor
- 0.80
- Win Months
- 15.7%
About this strategy
We go long or short based on signals generated by 1 or several neural net systems. These signals are used together with 3 other "indicators" which are statistically shown to bias the market to either rising or falling, by themselves. Many signals are held for about 24 hours. Some are shorter and some are held for several days. Also, at times, there are gap openings which help bias the market trading during the rest of the "trading day." Therefore, based on certain gap openings, together with the neural net signals and/or other indicator indications, we may go long or short around 9:30 Eastern time, or place certain limit orders at various points. A perfect and wonderful trade example are either of the two last trades in June 2017. However, fairly common is a gain of 5 to 7 . . . and 1/4 or 1/3 of the time (or however much it is) the market moves against us and we must scramble or watch a bit to escape at breaking even or a small profit. Many entries will be made around 1:30 or 2:00 p.m. Pacific time, which is about an hour after the ending of official stock market trading. At this time, we know the results of the first neural net system prediction for the next day, and we have the end-of-day values of 1 to 3 of the bias indicators. Sometimes we know enough or should know enough to go long or short, at 12:50 or 12:55 p.m Pacific time. Though the neural net analysis is not yet done for the day, certain large moves up or down, together with the previous day's neural net information are sufficiently clear that one should be long or short, at least pending further information.
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4.3 | 6.1 | -1.7 | -4.1 | 4.3 | ||||||||
| 2017 | -0.5 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 3.6 | -0.9 | 6.5 | 39.2 |
| 2018 | -6.9 | -9.5 | -5.3 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 16.3 | -9.8 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -12.0 | 31.2 | -75.0 | -74.1 |
| 2019 | 14.7 | -2.0 | -0.8 | 1.4 | -27.5 | 49.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.7 |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 9/1/2016 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $30,000 |
| Age | 122 months |
| What it trades | Futures |
| # Trades | 128 |
| # Profitable | 97 |
| % Profitable | 75.8% |
| Avg trade duration | 2.5 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 88.4% |
| drawdown period | Dec 03, 2018 - June 04, 2019 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | -21.6% |
| Avg win | $648 |
| Avg loss | $2,462 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 0.82 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.09 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.12 |
| Calmar Ratio | -0.18 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.16 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 252.7% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -88.1% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | -21.6% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | -0.2% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | -5.8% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 289.8% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.8% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.9% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Short Options - Percent Covered | 100.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.1% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 87.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 65.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 26.5% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 6.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 623 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 421 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $2,462 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $648 |
| # Winners | 97 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $76,310 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $62,831 |
| Num Months Winners | 19 |
| # Losers | 31 |
| % Winners | 75.8% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 25 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 121 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 3667.58 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 61.13 |
| Avg Trade Length | 2.50 |
| Last Trade Ago | 2634 |
Leverage
| Daily leverage (average) | 6.38 |
|---|---|
| Daily leverage (max) | 15.69 |
Regression
| Alpha | -0.02 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.30 |
| Treynor Index | -0.03 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.06 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.10 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.16 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.04 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | -13.29 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 2.13 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 65.89 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 68.85 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 1.45 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.15 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | -0.07 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | -0.12 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.47 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.26 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.25 |
| df | 31 |
| t | -0.42 |
| p | 0.66 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.46 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.95 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.45 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.95 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.31 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.01 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.39 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.51 |
| Upside SD | 0.26 |
| Downside SD | 0.39 |
| N nonnegative terms | 19 |
| N negative terms | 13 |
| N of observations | 32 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.10 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.12 |
| SD of predictor | 0.11 |
| SD of criterion | 0.47 |
| Covariance | 0.02 |
| r | 0.46 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 1.98 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.32 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.18 |
| DF error | 30 |
| t(b) | 2.86 |
| p(b) | 0.00 |
| t(a) | -1.18 |
| p(a) | 0.88 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.57 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 3.40 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.87 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.23 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.06 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.32 |
| Mean | -0.25 |
| SD | 0.55 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.46 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.45 |
| df | 31 |
| t | -0.75 |
| p | 0.77 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.66 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.75 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.65 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.76 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.51 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.73 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.36 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.62 |
| Upside SD | 0.22 |
| Downside SD | 0.50 |
| N nonnegative terms | 19 |
| N negative terms | 13 |
| N of observations | 32 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.09 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.25 |
| SD of predictor | 0.11 |
| SD of criterion | 0.55 |
| Covariance | 0.03 |
| r | 0.47 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 2.34 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.47 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.24 |
| DF error | 30 |
| t(b) | 2.92 |
| p(b) | 0.00 |
| t(a) | -1.52 |
| p(a) | 0.93 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.70 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 3.99 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -1.10 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.16 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.11 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.47 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.25 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.29 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.08 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.19 |
| Mean | -0.08 |
| SD | 0.56 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.15 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.15 |
| df | 704 |
| t | -0.24 |
| p | 0.60 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.34 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.05 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.34 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.05 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.20 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.00 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.69 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.78 |
| Upside SD | 0.37 |
| Downside SD | 0.42 |
| N nonnegative terms | 230 |
| N negative terms | 475 |
| N of observations | 705 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.10 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.08 |
| SD of predictor | 0.13 |
| SD of criterion | 0.56 |
| Covariance | 0.03 |
| r | 0.43 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 1.83 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.17 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.26 |
| DF error | 703 |
| t(b) | 12.54 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | -0.85 |
| p(a) | 0.80 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.55 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.12 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.88 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.35 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.05 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.27 |
| Mean | -0.25 |
| SD | 0.58 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.43 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.43 |
| df | 704 |
| t | -0.70 |
| p | 0.76 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.62 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.77 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.62 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.77 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.53 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 3.48 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.63 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.88 |
| Upside SD | 0.35 |
| Downside SD | 0.47 |
| N nonnegative terms | 230 |
| N negative terms | 475 |
| N of observations | 705 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.09 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.25 |
| SD of predictor | 0.13 |
| SD of criterion | 0.58 |
| Covariance | 0.03 |
| r | 0.43 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 1.90 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.42 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.28 |
| DF error | 703 |
| t(b) | 12.62 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | -1.31 |
| p(a) | 0.90 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.61 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.20 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -1.06 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.21 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.13 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.42 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.06 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.07 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.04 |
| Mean | 0.66 |
| SD | 0.76 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.87 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.87 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 0.62 |
| p | 0.47 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.90 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.65 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.91 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.64 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.16 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.38 |
| Upside part of mean | 3.09 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.43 |
| Upside SD | 0.50 |
| Downside SD | 0.58 |
| N nonnegative terms | 55 |
| N negative terms | 76 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.35 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.66 |
| SD of predictor | 0.13 |
| SD of criterion | 0.76 |
| Covariance | 0.06 |
| r | 0.59 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 3.32 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.50 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.38 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 8.27 |
| p(b) | 0.15 |
| t(a) | -0.56 |
| p(a) | 0.53 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.53 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 4.12 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -2.25 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.25 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.20 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.50 |
| Mean | 0.35 |
| SD | 0.82 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.43 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.43 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 0.30 |
| p | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.35 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.20 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -2.35 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.20 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.52 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.46 |
| Upside part of mean | 2.98 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.63 |
| Upside SD | 0.47 |
| Downside SD | 0.67 |
| N nonnegative terms | 55 |
| N negative terms | 76 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.34 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.35 |
| SD of predictor | 0.13 |
| SD of criterion | 0.82 |
| Covariance | 0.06 |
| r | 0.59 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 3.58 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.87 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.44 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 8.28 |
| p(b) | 0.15 |
| t(a) | -0.91 |
| p(a) | 0.55 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.72 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.05 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 4.43 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -2.75 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.01 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.10 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.87 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.08 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.10 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.05 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 32 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.52 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.98 |
| Median | 1.02 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.04 |
| Maximum | 1.38 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.84 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.03 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.10 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.06 |
| Number outliers low | 4 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.12 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.72 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.03 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.38 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.49 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.10 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.26 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.54 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.23 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.65 |
| Number of observations | 705 |
| Minimum | 0.67 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.23 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.97 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.03 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.00 |
| Number outliers low | 122 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.17 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.96 |
| Number of outliers high | 136 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.19 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.03 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.33 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.65 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.07 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 0.67 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.01 |
| Maximum | 1.18 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.96 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.04 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 13 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.10 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.92 |
| Number of outliers high | 14 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.11 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.08 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.10 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.82 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.20 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 3 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.05 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.10 |
| Median | 0.15 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.44 |
| Maximum | 0.74 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.05 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.15 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.74 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.35 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 29 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.00 |
| Median | 0.01 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.02 |
| Maximum | 0.85 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.29 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.02 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 5 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.17 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.39 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.98 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.19 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 9.97 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.42 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.30 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.69 |
| Number of observations | 8 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.01 |
| Median | 0.03 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.06 |
| Maximum | 0.51 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.04 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.29 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.04 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.12 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.51 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -84 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 183 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.17 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.20 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.27 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -0.27 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -0.69 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.17 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.20 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.23 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -0.68 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -2.74 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.42 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.46 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.90 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.60 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 4.70 |
Trading record
Placed 145 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES M9 | long | 1 | May 23, 2019 | Jun 18, 2019 | $4,892 |
| ES M9 | long | 1 | May 7, 2019 | May 23, 2019 | ($4,671) |
| ES M9 | long | 1 | May 2, 2019 | May 3, 2019 | $867 |
| ES M9 | short | 1 | Apr 23, 2019 | Apr 25, 2019 | ($1,071) |
| ES M9 | long | 1 | Apr 18, 2019 | Apr 18, 2019 | $730 |
| ES M9 | short | 1 | Apr 17, 2019 | Apr 17, 2019 | $617 |
| ES M9 | long | 1 | Apr 9, 2019 | Apr 10, 2019 | ($121) |
| ES M9 | short | 1 | Apr 8, 2019 | Apr 9, 2019 | ($508) |
| SPXL | long | 250 | Apr 3, 2019 | Apr 8, 2019 | $188 |
| SPXL | long | 260 | Mar 19, 2019 | Apr 1, 2019 | $208 |
| SPXS | long | 400 | Mar 18, 2019 | Mar 19, 2019 | ($192) |
| SPXL | long | 250 | Mar 7, 2019 | Mar 11, 2019 | $80 |
| SPXS | long | 454 | Feb 27, 2019 | Mar 7, 2019 | $213 |
| SPXL | long | 222 | Feb 26, 2019 | Feb 26, 2019 | $18 |
| SPXL | long | 222 | Feb 20, 2019 | Feb 21, 2019 | ($57) |
| SPXS | long | 320 | Feb 12, 2019 | Feb 15, 2019 | ($310) |
| SPXL | long | 250 | Feb 11, 2019 | Feb 12, 2019 | $110 |
| SPXL | long | 200 | Jan 28, 2019 | Jan 29, 2019 | $100 |
| SPXL | long | 270 | Jan 17, 2019 | Jan 25, 2019 | $605 |
| SPXL | long | 224 | Jan 11, 2019 | Jan 16, 2019 | $342 |
| SPXL | long | 200 | Jan 2, 2019 | Jan 8, 2019 | $648 |
| ES H9 | long | 1 | Dec 19, 2018 | Dec 23, 2018 | ($3,971) |
| ES Z8 | long | 3 | Dec 4, 2018 | Dec 19, 2018 | ($38,174) |
| ES Z8 | long | 3 | Nov 8, 2018 | Dec 2, 2018 | $3,876 |
| ES Z8 | long | 3 | Oct 18, 2018 | Nov 7, 2018 | $12,089 |
| ES Z8 | long | 2 | Oct 17, 2018 | Oct 18, 2018 | ($3,516) |
| ES Z8 | long | 3 | Oct 10, 2018 | Oct 16, 2018 | $5,951 |
| ES Z8 | long | 2 | Oct 9, 2018 | Oct 10, 2018 | ($3,991) |
| ES Z8 | short | 3 | Sep 18, 2018 | Sep 24, 2018 | ($937) |
| ES U8 | short | 2 | Aug 3, 2018 | Aug 6, 2018 | ($1,041) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.