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QuanTimer VIX L

Stocks · Started Jun 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
71.0%
Max Drawdown
27.0%
Trades
67
Win Trades
50.7%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
7.3%

About this strategy

For more system related information please visit our website.

We sincerely appreciate your interest in QuanTimer. We care about your financial well-being and would like to make sure that you do not have any unpleasant experience, when you start trading QuanTimer systems. While we are very confident about the long-term profitability of our strategies, it is difficult to predict when exactly we could experience some drawdown.

We strongly recommend that you invest only one-third of your intended capital in the first month, add another one-third after a month, and add the last one-third after two months to get fully invested. This would be a prudent approach, since it will lessen the impact of drawdown in your portfolio.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016-2.012.23.021.4-15.736.09.272.1
201716.9-8.14.54.816.0-8.3-2.5-12.20.00.00.00.07.2
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/30/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age124 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades67
# Profitable34
% Profitable50.7%
Avg trade duration3.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.0%
drawdown periodJune 28, 2017 - July 11, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)71.0%
Avg win$1,215
Avg loss$885

Ratios

W:L ratio1.41
Sharpe Ratio0.32
Sortino Ratio0.54
Calmar Ratio1.76

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life265.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)71.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)71.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.7%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity34.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss39.5%
Chance of 20% account loss10.5%
Chance of 30% account loss1.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated32.9%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)716
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)911
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)734

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$885
Avg Win$1,215
# Winners34
Sum Trade PL (losers)$29,203
Sum Trade PL (winners)$41,310
Num Months Winners9
# Losers33
% Winners50.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table124

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4520.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)75.35
Avg Trade Length3.10
Last Trade Ago3308

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.05
Treynor Index0.30

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades4.77
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.34
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.62
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.99
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.34
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.77
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.56
df13
t1.79
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.47
Sortino ratio4.32
Upside Potential Ratio6.05
Upside part of mean1.07
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms5
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.77
SD of predictor0.06
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance0.01
r0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.37
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error12
t(b)1.82
p(b)0.27
t(a)0.82
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta7.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.37
Mean0.65
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.44
df13
t1.65
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.33
Sortino ratio3.49
Upside Potential Ratio5.21
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms5
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.65
SD of predictor0.06
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.01
r0.48
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error12
t(b)1.89
p(b)0.26
t(a)0.68
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta7.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.71
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.00
df307
t2.17
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.81
Sortino ratio3.41
Upside Potential Ratio11.03
Upside part of mean2.31
Downside part of mean-1.59
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms134
N negative terms174
N of observations308
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.71
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.01
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error306
t(b)5.62
p(b)0
t(a)1.77
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.56
Mean0.65
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.84
df307
t2.00
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.65
Sortino ratio3.05
Upside Potential Ratio10.65
Upside part of mean2.27
Downside part of mean-1.62
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms134
N negative terms174
N of observations308
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.65
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.01
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.50
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error306
t(b)5.61
p(b)0
t(a)1.60
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.50
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.00
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.01
df130
t0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.78
Sortino ratio0.01
Upside Potential Ratio8.13
Upside part of mean2.00
Downside part of mean-2.00
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms53
N negative terms78
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.01
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error129
t(b)3.15
p(b)0.33
t(a)-0.15
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.92
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean-0.06
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.17
df130
t-0.12
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.60
Sortino ratio-0.25
Upside Potential Ratio7.84
Upside part of mean1.97
Downside part of mean-2.03
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms53
N negative terms78
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.01
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error129
t(b)3.10
p(b)0.33
t(a)-0.27
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.98
Median1.08
Quartile 31.14
Maximum1.35
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.11
Mean of quarter 41.22
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-22.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations308
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.86
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.08
Median0.13
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.13
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.49
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.08
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)13
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.59
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.59
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.41
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.97
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal23.33
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.75

Trading record

Placed 121 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VXX short3200Aug 15, 2017Aug 15, 2017($1,252)
VXX short3590Aug 3, 2017Aug 8, 2017($974)
VXX short3584Jul 28, 2017Aug 2, 2017$968
VXX short3795Jul 26, 2017Jul 27, 2017($1,179)
VXX short3445Jul 19, 2017Jul 25, 2017$1,277
VXX short2872Jul 12, 2017Jul 18, 2017$1,836
VXX short3002Jul 11, 2017Jul 11, 2017($1,049)
VXX short3117Jul 5, 2017Jul 5, 2017($1,249)
VXX short3254Jul 3, 2017Jul 3, 2017($1,174)
VXX short3259Jun 30, 2017Jun 30, 2017($1,548)
VXX short3490Jun 28, 2017Jun 29, 2017($1,293)
VXX short3093Jun 19, 2017Jun 27, 2017$1,206
VXX short3136Jun 15, 2017Jun 16, 2017$1,069
VXX short2887Jun 12, 2017Jun 14, 2017$1,180
VXX short3080Jun 9, 2017Jun 9, 2017($1,130)
VXX short3142Jun 1, 2017Jun 7, 2017($1,269)
VXX short5575May 22, 2017May 31, 2017$2,271
VXX short2699May 8, 2017May 17, 2017($629)
VXX short2625May 3, 2017May 5, 2017$648
VXX short2380Apr 27, 2017May 2, 2017$1,221
VXX short1711Apr 20, 2017Apr 26, 2017$3,504
VXX short1836Apr 19, 2017Apr 19, 2017($930)
VXX short1663Apr 17, 2017Apr 18, 2017$661
VXX short1844Apr 10, 2017Apr 10, 2017($837)
VXX short1981Apr 6, 2017Apr 7, 2017($929)
VXX short2178Mar 29, 2017Apr 3, 2017($974)
VXX short2120Mar 22, 2017Mar 23, 2017($995)
VXX short1900Mar 13, 2017Mar 21, 2017$1,919
VXX short1990Mar 8, 2017Mar 9, 2017($1,013)
VXX short1764Feb 28, 2017Mar 7, 2017$1,422

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.