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Sage Volatility IRA

Stocks, Options · Started May 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
22.2%
Max Drawdown
35.0%
Trades
511
Win Trades
20.0%
Profit Factor
2.20
Win Months
35.5%

About this strategy

I wouldn't call Volatility an asset class, but volatility products have incredible potential for significant and consistent gains...IF USED WELL!

Being short regular Volatility ETFs or long Inverse Volatility ETFs are winning strategies...MOST OF THE TIME.

The challenge is that when the VIX spikes or when the VIX futures curve is downward sloping instead of upward sloping, very significant losses can occur. Many people have built and back-tested models that attempt to move from long to short to neutral positions in the various Volatility ETFs, but almost all of them have one or both of these very significant flaws: 1) Failure to use "out of sample" back-testing and 2) Failure to protect against "black swan" events.

My strategies do the following:
- A position and weighting in the appropriate Volatility ETFs are established based on a multi-factor model which always uses out of sample back-testing to determine effectiveness.
- Volatility Options are always used to protect against significant short-term moves which left unchecked could result in the total loss of one's portfolio value; these options will usually lose money, but that is a small price to pay for the protection they provide. (Strategies should be scaled at a minimum of 20% to ensure options protection.)

Smart Volatility Margin - this is best strategy for regular brokerage accounts with margin and in which short selling is allowed. A mix of Long positions in Inverse Volatility ETPs and Short positions in Leveraged Volatility ETPs are typically held. Suggested minimum capital: $23,000 (using 20% scaling).

Smart Volatility IRA - this is the best strategy for IRA accounts in which short selling is not allowed. Long positions in Inverse Volatility ETFs are typically held. Suggested minimum capital: $23,000 (using 20% scaling).

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201615.8-3.718.46.28.01.60.35.262.6
201712.12.07.11.00.50.45.6-8.110.57.4-1.83.345.6
2018-5.115.8-1.40.91.3-2.10.80.82.7-7.20.30.86.2
2019-6.0-1.5-3.81.0-9.21.3-1.6-5.6-5.50.92.3-1.3-26.0
20202.26.310.01.02.0-1.32.51.2-0.11.2-1.10.826.9
2021-2.17.26.52.51.04.22.4-0.0-0.00.00.00.023.4
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/18/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age125 months
What it tradesStocks, Options
# Trades511
# Profitable102
% Profitable20.0%
Avg trade duration13.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown35.0%
drawdown periodOct 01, 2018 - Oct 03, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)22.2%
Avg win$1,903
Avg loss$213

Ratios

W:L ratio2.23
Sharpe Ratio0.61
Sortino Ratio0.95
Calmar Ratio0.69

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life270.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)77.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)22.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.3%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.7%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss22.0%
Chance of 20% account loss6.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)639
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)857
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)712

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$213
Avg Win$1,903
# Winners102
Sum Trade PL (losers)$87,049
Sum Trade PL (winners)$194,104
Num Months Winners44
# Losers409
% Winners20.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct281

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table124

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19146.10
Avg Position Time (hrs)319.10
Avg Trade Length13.30
Last Trade Ago1879

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.77
Daily leverage (max)3.36

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0.39

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.82
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.68
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats33.98
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats78.22
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.41
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.55

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.21
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df62
t2.61
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.00
Sortino ratio2.54
Upside Potential Ratio4.16
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms26
N of observations63
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error61
t(b)0.74
p(b)0.23
t(a)2.33
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)1.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.19
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.06
df62
t2.46
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.94
Sortino ratio2.25
Upside Potential Ratio3.85
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms26
N of observations63
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error61
t(b)0.78
p(b)0.22
t(a)2.21
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)1.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.20
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df1382
t2.73
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio1.82
Upside Potential Ratio8.26
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms715
N negative terms668
N of observations1383
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1381
t(b)4.67
p(b)0.42
t(a)2.54
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)1.79
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.19
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.11
df1382
t2.54
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio1.66
Upside Potential Ratio8.04
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms715
N negative terms668
N of observations1383
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1381
t(b)4.64
p(b)0.42
t(a)2.38
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)1.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.18
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.36
df130
t0.97
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.14
Sortino ratio1.89
Upside Potential Ratio6.76
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms81
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)3.49
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.61
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.17
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.29
df130
t0.91
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.06
Sortino ratio1.77
Upside Potential Ratio6.61
Upside part of mean0.64
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms81
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)3.47
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.57
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)0.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations63
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations1383
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low64
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high84
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.91
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.36
Expected Shortfall (regression method)4.70
Number of observations52
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.86
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.27
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-328524992
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)367
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.41
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.73
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.85
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.41
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.48
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.64
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.65
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.82
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.70

Trading record

Placed 2378 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VXX2116G54 long5Jul 8, 2021Jul 9, 2021($47)
SVXY long500Jul 8, 2021Jul 9, 2021$712
VXX long1500Jul 6, 2021Jul 8, 2021$3,066
VXX2109G35 long5Jul 2, 2021Jul 6, 2021$14
SVXY long500Jul 2, 2021Jul 6, 2021($313)
VXX2102G53.5 long5Jun 22, 2021Jul 3, 2021($49)
VXX2102G45 long5Jun 25, 2021Jul 3, 2021($24)
VXX long200Jul 1, 2021Jul 2, 2021($196)
SVXY long8200May 19, 2021Jul 1, 2021$16,133
VXX2125F56 long5Jun 18, 2021Jun 26, 2021($54)
VXX2118F55 long10Jun 11, 2021Jun 19, 2021($64)
VXX2118F50 long10Jun 11, 2021Jun 19, 2021($64)
VXX2111F55 long10Jun 2, 2021Jun 12, 2021($121)
VXX2111F50 long10Jun 4, 2021Jun 12, 2021($94)
VXX2104F50 long15May 28, 2021Jun 5, 2021($80)
VXX2104F55 long5May 26, 2021Jun 5, 2021($69)
VXX2128E65 long10May 20, 2021May 29, 2021($187)
VXX2128E58 long5May 24, 2021May 29, 2021($28)
VXX2121E65 long10May 14, 2021May 19, 2021$4
SVXY long4700May 13, 2021May 19, 2021($4,893)
VXX2121E60 long5May 14, 2021May 19, 2021$32
VXX long400May 12, 2021May 13, 2021($185)
VXX2114E60 long5May 5, 2021May 11, 2021$4
VXX2114E56 long5May 7, 2021May 11, 2021$43
VXX2107E60 long10Apr 30, 2021May 8, 2021($127)
SVXY2130P35 long15Apr 23, 2021May 1, 2021($158)
VXX12123D16 long20Apr 14, 2021Apr 24, 2021($74)
VXX12123D13 long20Apr 20, 2021Apr 24, 2021($100)
VXX12123D14 long20Apr 19, 2021Apr 24, 2021($64)
VXX12123D15 long60Apr 9, 2021Apr 24, 2021($212)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.