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Golden Bay

Futures · Started May 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
15.6%
Max Drawdown
42.6%
Trades
148
Win Trades
93.9%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
8.8%

About this strategy

System Goldenbay only intraday futures contracts: CL, . The system is based on a thorough Intermarket analysis, intraday rhythm of each market and correlation of ticks for each market. Deposits from $100k and above - the subscriber can fully follow the system and its results. The placing of stop losses is done automatically for each position on our signals on any amount the subscriber specify in its control panel of Collective2.
P.S. The system allows you to trade deposits from $10k. The trading is one contract. Deposts $20k - the trading is 2 contract and so on.
The placing of stop losses is done automatically for each position on our signals

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20161.11.52.2-17.47.77.57.24.212.0
20172.82.9-10.810.43.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.2
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/13/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age126 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades148
# Profitable139
% Profitable93.9%
Avg trade duration13.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown42.6%
drawdown periodMarch 16, 2017 - April 12, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)15.6%
Avg win$510
Avg loss$4,504

Ratios

W:L ratio1.75
Sharpe Ratio0.05
Sortino Ratio0.07
Calmar Ratio0.34

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life274.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-0.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)15.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)457
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$4,504
Avg Win$510
# Winners139
Sum Trade PL (losers)$40,540
Sum Trade PL (winners)$70,905
Num Months Winners11
# Losers9
% Winners93.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table125

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)793.33
Avg Position Time (hrs)13.22
Avg Trade Length0.60
Last Trade Ago3397

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index0.38

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.21
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.68
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.55
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats51.87
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats36.11
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.57
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-3.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.24
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df12
t1.14
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.95
Sortino ratio1.54
Upside Potential Ratio2.62
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms3
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.06
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error11
t(b)0.23
p(b)0.41
t(a)0.81
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)1.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.22
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.88
df12
t0.98
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.79
Sortino ratio1.26
Upside Potential Ratio2.33
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms3
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.06
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error11
t(b)0.24
p(b)0.41
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)0.84
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.28
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.78
df286
t0.81
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.65
Sortino ratio1.22
Upside Potential Ratio5.46
Upside part of mean1.24
Downside part of mean-0.96
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms152
N negative terms135
N of observations287
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error285
t(b)0.62
p(b)0.27
t(a)0.75
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)2.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
Mean0.21
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df286
t0.64
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.48
Sortino ratio0.91
Upside Potential Ratio5.10
Upside part of mean1.21
Downside part of mean-0.99
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms152
N negative terms135
N of observations287
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error285
t(b)0.62
p(b)0.27
t(a)0.58
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.86
Treynor index (mean / b)1.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.25
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.65
df130
t0.46
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.43
Sortino ratio1.14
Upside Potential Ratio6.32
Upside part of mean1.41
Downside part of mean-1.16
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms85
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error129
t(b)0.50
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.40
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.32
Treynor index (mean / b)1.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
Mean0.18
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df130
t0.34
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.25
Sortino ratio0.79
Upside Potential Ratio5.93
Upside part of mean1.36
Downside part of mean-1.18
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms85
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error129
t(b)0.49
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.27
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.60
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.01
Median1.03
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations287
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high34
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low23
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high20
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.05
Median0.09
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.37
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.40
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.37
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.37
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)27
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.73
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.73
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.47
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.27
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.75
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.56
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.39
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.03

Trading record

Placed 51 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL N7short1May 18, 2017May 18, 2017$492
QCL N7short4May 12, 2017May 16, 2017$948
QCL M7short10May 8, 2017May 9, 2017$4,820
QCL M7short10May 8, 2017May 8, 2017($2,680)
QCL M7short10May 8, 2017May 8, 2017$1,720
QCL M7short10May 8, 2017May 8, 2017$1,520
QCL M7short10May 8, 2017May 8, 2017($2,080)
QCL K7short22Mar 29, 2017Apr 21, 2017($4,776)
QCL K7short10Mar 23, 2017Mar 23, 2017$1,920
QCL K7short10Mar 22, 2017Mar 22, 2017$1,120
QCL K7short10Mar 20, 2017Mar 20, 2017($3,080)
QCL K7short10Mar 16, 2017Mar 16, 2017$4,020
QCL J7short10Mar 10, 2017Mar 10, 2017$4,920
QCL J7short10Mar 10, 2017Mar 10, 2017($5,080)
QCL J7short10Mar 6, 2017Mar 6, 2017($680)
QCL J7short4Mar 1, 2017Mar 2, 2017$968
QCL J7short4Feb 22, 2017Feb 28, 2017$1,068
QCL J7short4Feb 17, 2017Feb 22, 2017$528
QCL J7short2Feb 14, 2017Feb 14, 2017$234
QCL J7short2Feb 13, 2017Feb 13, 2017$464
QCL H7short2Feb 7, 2017Feb 7, 2017$184
QCL H7short4Feb 6, 2017Feb 6, 2017$888
QCL H7short2Feb 2, 2017Feb 2, 2017$404
QCL H7short2Jan 30, 2017Jan 30, 2017$264
QCL H7short2Jan 27, 2017Jan 27, 2017$534
QCL H7short2Jan 26, 2017Jan 26, 2017$284
QCL H7short4Jan 23, 2017Jan 25, 2017$768
QCL H7short2Jan 20, 2017Jan 20, 2017$164
QCL H7short4Jan 17, 2017Jan 18, 2017$268
QCL H7short2Jan 13, 2017Jan 13, 2017$224

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.