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SR 22 Futures

Futures · Started Apr 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
43.0%
Max Drawdown
32.5%
Trades
278
Win Trades
65.1%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
4.0%

About this strategy

*** Trading style changed in early October to adapt to current market conditions- after the negative September. This system will periodically parameters when market conditions warrant ***


I am a full time trader with over 18 years of experience and this is a manual only price action strategy.

* Trading is based on support and resistance, pullback with trend and divergences.
* Hard stops and targets are set with each trade.
* Minimum of a 1 to 1 risk/reward ratio.
* No scaling in or averaging in of positions.
* I monitor each trade closely as I trade my own capital.

What you receive with a subscription:
* Clear communication and frequent updates including a monthly trading brief
* Closely monitored trades with adjustments made if needed.
* System owner/manager with a vested interest.

If you have any questions do not hesitate to please let me know

Dave

I also manage: Pure Es and Pure Oil

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201612.713.213.4-16.111.3-21.729.10.00.036.5
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/28/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$13,000
Age126 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades278
# Profitable181
% Profitable65.1%
Avg trade duration2.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown32.5%
drawdown periodJuly 06, 2016 - Oct 07, 2016
Cumul. Return38.2%
Avg win$274
Avg loss$376

Ratios

W:L ratio1.36
Sharpe Ratio0.14
Sortino Ratio0.21
Calmar Ratio2.49

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life268.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)25.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)43.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity7.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)597
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$376
Avg Win$274
# Winners181
Sum Trade PL (losers)$36,442
Sum Trade PL (winners)$49,666
Num Months Winners5
# Losers97
% Winners65.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table126

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)159.55
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.66
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago3599

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-0.71

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.82
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.33
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.94
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats37.70
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.66
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.88
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.55
df10
t1.61
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.71
Sortino ratio10.98
Upside Potential Ratio12.09
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.56
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms6
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.88
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance-0.02
r-0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.29
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error9
t(b)-1.61
p(b)0.93
t(a)2.27
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.57
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.32
Jensen alpha (a)1.29
Mean0.76
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.56
df10
t1.62
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.72
Sortino ratio9.03
Upside Potential Ratio10.14
Upside part of mean0.85
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.47
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms6
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.76
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance-0.02
r-0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.65
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.13
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error9
t(b)-1.85
p(b)0.95
t(a)2.43
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.28
Jensen alpha (a)1.13
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.78
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.94
df320
t2.84
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.98
Sortino ratio5.53
Upside Potential Ratio11.07
Upside part of mean1.55
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms81
N negative terms240
N of observations321
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.78
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error319
t(b)-1.59
p(b)0.94
t(a)2.95
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.81
Mean0.74
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.84
df320
t2.75
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.88
Sortino ratio5.19
Upside Potential Ratio10.69
Upside part of mean1.53
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms81
N negative terms240
N of observations321
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.74
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.77
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error319
t(b)-1.54
p(b)0.94
t(a)2.85
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.77
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.34
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.21
df171
t1.57
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.99
Sortino ratio3.52
Upside Potential Ratio6.48
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms153
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error170
t(b)0.82
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.47
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)2.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.33
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.12
df171
t1.51
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.90
Sortino ratio3.30
Upside Potential Ratio6.24
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms153
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error170
t(b)0.87
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.41
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)2.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.12
Maximum1.46
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.27
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.46
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)5.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations321
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low50
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high80
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.64
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations172
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high19
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.08
Median0.08
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.22
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)93
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)14.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.30
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.42
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal42.29
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.31
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal25.10

Trading record

Placed 358 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL Z6short1Oct 28, 2016Oct 31, 2016$112
ES Z6short3Oct 28, 2016Oct 30, 2016($737)
QCL Z6short1Oct 27, 2016Oct 28, 2016$472
ES Z6short3Oct 27, 2016Oct 28, 2016$151
ES Z6short2Oct 20, 2016Oct 20, 2016$159
QGC Z6short1Oct 20, 2016Oct 20, 2016$142
ES Z6long1Oct 20, 2016Oct 20, 2016$30
QCL Z6short1Oct 20, 2016Oct 20, 2016($138)
ES Z6short2Oct 19, 2016Oct 19, 2016$84
QCL Z6short1Oct 19, 2016Oct 19, 2016$112
QCL Z6short1Oct 19, 2016Oct 19, 2016$152
QCL Z6short1Oct 19, 2016Oct 19, 2016$102
QGC Z6short1Oct 19, 2016Oct 19, 2016($18)
QGC Z6short1Oct 19, 2016Oct 19, 2016$92
QGC Z6long1Oct 19, 2016Oct 19, 2016$142
ES Z6short2Oct 19, 2016Oct 19, 2016($466)
QGC Z6short1Oct 19, 2016Oct 19, 2016$112
QCL Z6short1Oct 19, 2016Oct 19, 2016$92
QCL Z6short1Oct 18, 2016Oct 18, 2016($328)
ES Z6short2Oct 18, 2016Oct 18, 2016$209
QGC Z6long1Oct 18, 2016Oct 18, 2016$12
ES Z6short2Oct 18, 2016Oct 18, 2016$134
QGC Z6short1Oct 18, 2016Oct 18, 2016$42
QCL Z6long1Oct 18, 2016Oct 18, 2016$82
ES Z6long2Oct 17, 2016Oct 17, 2016$309
QCL Z6short1Oct 17, 2016Oct 17, 2016($258)
QCL Z6short1Oct 17, 2016Oct 17, 2016($308)
ES Z6short1Oct 17, 2016Oct 17, 2016$117
QGC Z6long1Oct 17, 2016Oct 17, 2016$12
QCL Z6short1Oct 17, 2016Oct 17, 2016$312

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.