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NeoTrader

Futures · Started Apr 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
23.1%
Max Drawdown
11.2%
Trades
55
Win Trades
85.5%
Profit Factor
5.70
Win Months
4.0%

About this strategy

This is algorithmic trading with a human touch.
The system swing trades the German 10 year Bond future and daytrades the Euro Stoxx50 future. Maximum open position is 3 contracts.
I use an algorithm to tell me when it’s time to enter and use stop loss and target orders for each position. The levels are chosen manually at support- and resistance levels and can change multiple times during a trade depending on price action.
18th of July 2016 there were some modifications made to the system to optimize the profit factor.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20161.022.06.62.70.5-0.0-0.90.00.034.3
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/24/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age126 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades55
# Profitable47
% Profitable85.5%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown11.2%
drawdown periodJuly 11, 2016 - Oct 17, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)23.1%
Avg win$288
Avg loss$296

Ratios

W:L ratio5.71
Sharpe Ratio0.21
Sortino Ratio0.41
Calmar Ratio3.08

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life266.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)14.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)23.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated3.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)408
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$296
Avg Win$288
# Winners47
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,369
Sum Trade PL (winners)$13,530
Num Months Winners5
# Losers8
% Winners85.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table126

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1434.75
Avg Position Time (hrs)23.91
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago3609

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index-1.26

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.51
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.23
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.99
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats75.65
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.81
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.25
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.40

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.45
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.66
df9
t1.65
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.93
Sortino ratio37.58
Upside Potential Ratio39.50
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms5
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.01
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.54
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.54
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error8
t(b)-0.66
p(b)0.74
t(a)1.73
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.84
Jensen alpha (a)0.54
Mean0.42
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.69
df9
t1.68
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.97
Sortino ratio34.75
Upside Potential Ratio36.68
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms5
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.01
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.50
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error8
t(b)-0.66
p(b)0.74
t(a)1.76
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.50
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.39
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.90
df234
t2.75
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.98
Sortino ratio5.96
Upside Potential Ratio10.75
Upside part of mean0.71
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms79
N negative terms156
N of observations235
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error233
t(b)-0.62
p(b)0.73
t(a)2.80
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
Mean0.38
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.85
df234
t2.71
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.94
Sortino ratio5.75
Upside Potential Ratio10.53
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms79
N negative terms156
N of observations235
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error233
t(b)-0.60
p(b)0.72
t(a)2.75
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.04
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.54
df130
t-0.39
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio-0.81
Upside Potential Ratio3.35
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.12
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.40
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.87
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.04
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.58
df130
t-0.41
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.19
Sortino ratio-0.85
Upside Potential Ratio3.30
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.12
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.43
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.22
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations235
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high43
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-15.73
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)98
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.54
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.56
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)74.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.91
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.51
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.48
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs12.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal32.88
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.19
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.35

Trading record

Placed 106 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BD Z6long2Oct 5, 2016Oct 20, 2016$28
BD Z6long2Sep 19, 2016Sep 19, 2016($174)
BD Z6long1Sep 7, 2016Sep 7, 2016$243
EX U6long1Sep 6, 2016Sep 6, 2016($30)
BD U6long1Sep 1, 2016Sep 1, 2016$134
EX U6long1Aug 31, 2016Aug 31, 2016($19)
BD U6long1Aug 23, 2016Aug 23, 2016$199
BD U6long2Aug 19, 2016Aug 22, 2016$461
BD U6long1Aug 18, 2016Aug 18, 2016$177
BD U6long1Aug 16, 2016Aug 16, 2016($13)
BD U6long1Aug 16, 2016Aug 16, 2016($529)
EX U6short1Aug 12, 2016Aug 12, 2016$25
BD U6long1Aug 12, 2016Aug 12, 2016($20)
BD U6long1Aug 3, 2016Aug 3, 2016$134
BD U6long1Aug 2, 2016Aug 2, 2016$45
BD U6long1Jul 29, 2016Jul 29, 2016$135
BD U6long1Jul 28, 2016Jul 28, 2016$166
BD U6long1Jul 22, 2016Jul 22, 2016$232
EX U6long1Jul 19, 2016Jul 19, 2016$79
BD U6long1Jul 18, 2016Jul 18, 2016$134
BD U6short2Jul 13, 2016Jul 13, 2016($849)
EX U6short2Jul 12, 2016Jul 12, 2016($823)
BD U6short2Jul 11, 2016Jul 11, 2016$246
BD U6long2Jul 7, 2016Jul 8, 2016$355
EX U6short2Jul 6, 2016Jul 6, 2016$595
BD U6long2Jul 5, 2016Jul 5, 2016$398
EX U6short2Jul 4, 2016Jul 4, 2016$267
EX U6short1Jul 1, 2016Jul 1, 2016$199
BD U6long2Jun 30, 2016Jun 30, 2016$464
BD U6long2Jun 29, 2016Jun 29, 2016$366

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.