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Depreciation

Stocks, Options · Started Apr 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.5%
Max Drawdown
30.3%
Trades
79
Win Trades
94.9%
Profit Factor
3
Win Months
15.1%

About this strategy

For diversification purposes, it is recommended that no strategy be used with no more than 30% of ones trading account, this strategy included.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201616.15.8-2.46.92.32.50.35.55.750.2
20175.4-0.12.31.32.11.02.21.73.42.31.61.827.9
2018-1.1-14.4-2.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-17.3
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/9/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age127 months
What it tradesStocks, Options
# Trades79
# Profitable75
% Profitable94.9%
Avg trade duration11.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown30.3%
drawdown periodJan 12, 2018 - Feb 08, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)4.5%
Avg win$144
Avg loss$905

Ratios

W:L ratio2.99
Sharpe Ratio0.25
Sortino Ratio0.33
Calmar Ratio0.79

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.12
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life273.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-211.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity22.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.5%
Percent Trades Stocks0.5%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss37.0%
Chance of 20% account loss5.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$905
Avg Win$144
# Winners75
Sum Trade PL (losers)$3,619
Sum Trade PL (winners)$10,827
Num Months Winners19
# Losers4
% Winners94.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table126

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)16729.68
Avg Position Time (hrs)278.83
Avg Trade Length11.60
Last Trade Ago3112

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.08
Treynor Index0.11

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.51
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.13
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.08
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.24
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.40
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.40
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.38
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.30

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.17
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.83
df36
t1.48
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio1.73
Upside Potential Ratio2.69
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms19
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error35
t(b)-0.16
p(b)0.56
t(a)1.37
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.15
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df36
t1.38
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio1.42
Upside Potential Ratio2.35
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms19
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error35
t(b)-0.02
p(b)0.51
t(a)1.21
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-66.95
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.16
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df813
t1.61
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio1.24
Upside Potential Ratio4.57
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms319
N negative terms495
N of observations814
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error812
t(b)3.18
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)2.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.15
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df813
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.92
Sortino ratio1.06
Upside Potential Ratio4.30
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms319
N negative terms495
N of observations814
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error812
t(b)3.05
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.20
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)2.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.18
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6787973009899520
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)9.07300375045828e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations37
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.96
Number of observations814
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low100
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high112
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations57
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.46
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-637580352
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)27
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.02
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.52
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 76 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VXX short250Jan 10, 2018Mar 5, 2018($3,498)
VXX short150Dec 28, 2017Jan 8, 2018$102
VXX1805M27.5 short1Dec 28, 2017Jan 6, 2018$65
VXX1722X29 short1Dec 13, 2017Dec 23, 2017$71
VXX short100Nov 28, 2017Dec 23, 2017$223
VXX1724W34 short1Nov 13, 2017Nov 25, 2017$100
VXX short150Oct 2, 2017Nov 25, 2017$569
VXX1710W34 short1Oct 30, 2017Nov 11, 2017$118
VXX1729U41 short1Sep 25, 2017Sep 29, 2017$86
VXX short100Sep 25, 2017Sep 29, 2017$17
VXX1722U41.5 short1Sep 18, 2017Sep 21, 2017$67
VXX short100Sep 18, 2017Sep 21, 2017$24
VXX1715U46 short1Sep 11, 2017Sep 14, 2017$87
VXX short200Jul 27, 2017Sep 14, 2017$526
VXX1708U47 short1Aug 30, 2017Sep 7, 2017$128
VXX short570Mar 20, 2017Jul 25, 2017$1,004
VXX1721S11.5 short1Jul 19, 2017Jul 20, 2017$19
VXX1709R13.5 short1May 31, 2017Jun 8, 2017$33
VXX1728P16 short1Apr 24, 2017Apr 29, 2017$30
VXX1717O16.5 short2Mar 15, 2017Mar 18, 2017$75
VXX short200Mar 13, 2017Mar 18, 2017$86
VXX1710O17.5 short2Mar 6, 2017Mar 11, 2017$85
VXX short200Feb 13, 2017Mar 11, 2017$62
VXX1724N17.5 short2Feb 22, 2017Feb 25, 2017$22
VXX1710N18.5 short2Feb 7, 2017Feb 11, 2017$35
VXX short200Feb 7, 2017Feb 11, 2017$53
VXX1703N19.5 short2Jan 30, 2017Feb 4, 2017$77
VXX short200Jan 30, 2017Feb 4, 2017$44
VXX1727M21 short1Jan 19, 2017Jan 28, 2017$40
VXX1720M21 short1Jan 17, 2017Jan 21, 2017$19

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.