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ES ST IT

Futures · Futures · Started Feb 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-12.4%
Max Drawdown
97.5%
Trades
550
Win Trades
73.1%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
14.2%

About this strategy

The strategy is based on combination of price and volume patterns, based on historical data. Always uses hard stops.

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016-6.317.6-32.289.898.029.03.39.37.60.06.0367.3
2017-6.1-7.4-3.411.5-2.14.70.83.2-8.6-7.6-6.10.8-20.2
2018-13.7-23.623.43.1-8.64.621.9-28.9-7.7-45.175.0-80.1-87.7
2019-41.9-7.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-46.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/25/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$12,500
Age128 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades550
# Profitable402
% Profitable73.1%
Avg trade duration1.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown97.5%
drawdown periodAug 30, 2017 - Jan 18, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)-12.4%
Avg win$705
Avg loss$1,831

Ratios

W:L ratio1.05
Sharpe Ratio-0.04
Sortino Ratio-0.06
Calmar Ratio0.29

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life293.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-370.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-12.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1855.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss85.0%
Chance of 20% account loss73.5%
Chance of 30% account loss46.0%
Chance of 40% account loss28.0%
Chance of 50% account loss15.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)5.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated3.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,831
Avg Win$705
# Winners402
Sum Trade PL (losers)$270,933
Sum Trade PL (winners)$283,286
Num Months Winners19
# Losers148
% Winners73.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table127

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1746.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)29.11
Avg Trade Length1.20
Last Trade Ago2767

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.08
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.21
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades138.43
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.39
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats69.17
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats43.95
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.76
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.38
SD0.78
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df44
t0.95
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio1.25
Upside Potential Ratio2.85
Upside part of mean0.87
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.71
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms28
N of observations45
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.78
Covariance-0.01
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.46
Mean Square Error0.61
DF error43
t(b)-0.45
p(b)0.67
t(a)1.04
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.46
Mean0.16
SD0.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df44
t0.47
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.25
Sortino ratio0.44
Upside Potential Ratio1.98
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.54
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms28
N of observations45
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.64
Covariance-0.01
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error43
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.61
t(a)0.55
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.25
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.30
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
Mean0.24
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df993
t1.13
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio0.86
Upside Potential Ratio6.69
Upside part of mean1.83
Downside part of mean-1.60
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms388
N negative terms606
N of observations994
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error992
t(b)-0.30
p(b)0.62
t(a)1.15
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.65
Treynor index (mean / b)-18.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
Mean0.15
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.38
df993
t0.73
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.38
Sortino ratio0.54
Upside Potential Ratio6.27
Upside part of mean1.79
Downside part of mean-1.64
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms388
N negative terms606
N of observations994
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error992
t(b)-0.28
p(b)0.61
t(a)0.75
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.97
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6816894782799872
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.37713559790903e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations45
Minimum0.65
Quartile 10.95
Median1
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.95
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.28
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.71
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.58
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.32
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.34
Number of observations994
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low96
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high107
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.57
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.14
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.68
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.14
Mean of quarter 30.27
Mean of quarter 40.68
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.68
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations33
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.69
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.34
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-403428256
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)506
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.66
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.97
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 986 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES H9short2Jan 30, 2019Jan 30, 2019($2,166)
ES H9short1Jan 23, 2019Jan 28, 2019($33)
ES H9short1Jan 23, 2019Jan 23, 2019$967
ES H9long1Jan 22, 2019Jan 22, 2019$792
ES H9short1Jan 18, 2019Jan 22, 2019$2,430
ES H9short2Jan 4, 2019Jan 4, 2019($1,991)
ES H9short2Jan 2, 2019Jan 2, 2019($2,166)
ES H9long2Dec 24, 2018Dec 24, 2018($2,741)
ES H9long2Dec 23, 2018Dec 24, 2018($2,591)
ES H9long2Dec 19, 2018Dec 20, 2018($2,666)
ES H9long2Dec 17, 2018Dec 19, 2018$1,434
ES H9long2Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($2,741)
ES Z8long2Dec 12, 2018Dec 14, 2018($3,041)
ES Z8long2Dec 7, 2018Dec 10, 2018($3,291)
ES Z8long2Dec 4, 2018Dec 6, 2018($6,591)
ES Z8long2Dec 4, 2018Dec 4, 2018($4,191)
ES Z8short2Dec 4, 2018Dec 4, 2018$1,109
ES Z8short2Dec 3, 2018Dec 3, 2018$984
ES Z8short2Dec 3, 2018Dec 3, 2018$3,284
ES Z8long2Dec 2, 2018Dec 3, 2018$1,509
ES Z8short2Nov 30, 2018Dec 2, 2018($3,716)
ES Z8long2Nov 29, 2018Nov 29, 2018$1,459
ES Z8long2Nov 20, 2018Nov 28, 2018$5,334
ES Z8long2Nov 19, 2018Nov 20, 2018($3,666)
ES Z8long2Nov 16, 2018Nov 16, 2018$2,659
ES Z8long2Nov 14, 2018Nov 15, 2018$3,184
ES Z8long4Nov 12, 2018Nov 14, 2018($2,557)
ES Z8short2Nov 9, 2018Nov 12, 2018$3,309
ES Z8short2Nov 7, 2018Nov 9, 2018$3,284
ES Z8long2Oct 29, 2018Oct 29, 2018($3,216)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.