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VolatilityTrader

Options · Options · Started Mar 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
33.0%
Max Drawdown
85.3%
Trades
3066
Win Trades
92.7%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
29.4%

About this strategy

Please don't get scaling less than 10% to ensure you get atleast 1 option contact. The minimum amount you should allocate to this strategy is $125k, $150k is recommended. I tend to buy/sell 10 contracts at a time. so anything less than 10% scaling will result in no trade for you. I pref Interactive Broker as your trading platform. Account must be able to short option writing(writing naked calls/puts). This strategy will try to limit max draw down to less than 25% and shoot for avg gain of 5% per month. Always looking for high volatile instrument to trade.

Premium Collecting Volatility Long / Short

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016-4.419.340.355.245.211.915.2-7.724.64.4458.1
2017-28.3-28.023.111.47.110.7-11.427.811.35.2-3.110.419.1
20186.227.3-2.37.28.2-6.419.9-5.84.8-5.28.7-36.710.8
201921.012.18.4-3.2-4.18.06.9-0.011.12.3-9.6-1.459.5
2020-11.62.3-9.825.320.114.113.9-12.4-12.624.2-66.1-30.0-64.0
2021-16.016.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.1
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/7/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age128 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades3066
# Profitable2841
% Profitable92.7%
Avg trade duration11.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown85.3%
drawdown periodSept 08, 2020 - Jan 08, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)33.0%
Avg win$1,954
Avg loss$23,093

Ratios

W:L ratio1.08
Sharpe Ratio0.41
Sortino Ratio0.58
Calmar Ratio0.41

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.20
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life279.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)220.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)33.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)16.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity458.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.8%
Short Options - Percent Covered32.8%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss57.5%
Chance of 20% account loss33.0%
Chance of 30% account loss19.0%
Chance of 40% account loss5.0%
Chance of 50% account loss1.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)819
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)959
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)858

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$23,093
Avg Win$1,954
# Winners2841
Sum Trade PL (losers)$5,195,895
Sum Trade PL (winners)$5,551,619
Num Months Winners37
# Losers225
% Winners92.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct35212

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table126

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)17190.23
Avg Position Time (hrs)286.50
Avg Trade Length11.90
Last Trade Ago2014

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.91
Daily leverage (max)45.35

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta0.50
Treynor Index0.11

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.15
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-50.04
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats62.13
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats61.57
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.63
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.37
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.52
SD0.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.82
df56
t1.82
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.74
Sortino ratio1.36
Upside Potential Ratio2.65
Upside part of mean1.00
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.51
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms18
N of observations57
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.62
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.50
Mean Square Error0.39
DF error55
t(b)0.23
p(b)0.41
t(a)1.70
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.09
Treynor index (mean / b)3.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.50
Mean0.30
SD0.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.42
df56
t0.92
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.32
Sortino ratio0.53
Upside Potential Ratio1.62
Upside part of mean0.90
Downside part of mean-0.60
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.55
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms18
N of observations57
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.70
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.50
DF error55
t(b)-0.25
p(b)0.60
t(a)0.94
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.98
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.27
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.32
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean0.48
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df1262
t1.78
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.70
Sortino ratio1.17
Upside Potential Ratio7.93
Upside part of mean3.23
Downside part of mean-2.75
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms702
N negative terms561
N of observations1263
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.48
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.03
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.33
DF error1261
t(b)9.11
p(b)0.34
t(a)1.46
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)0.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
Mean0.30
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df1262
t1.13
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio0.71
Upside Potential Ratio7.31
Upside part of mean3.15
Downside part of mean-2.84
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms702
N negative terms561
N of observations1263
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.03
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.33
DF error1261
t(b)9.14
p(b)0.34
t(a)0.84
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-2.06
SD1.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.85
df130
t-1.31
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Sortino ratio-2.44
Upside Potential Ratio5.79
Upside part of mean4.91
Downside part of mean-6.97
Upside SD0.72
Downside SD0.85
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms66
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-2.06
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.11
Covariance-0.06
r-0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.87
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.38
Mean Square Error1.14
DF error129
t(b)-3.48
p(b)0.68
t(a)-0.91
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.63
Treynor index (mean / b)1.10
Jensen alpha (a)-1.38
Mean-2.69
SD1.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.39
df130
t-1.70
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39
Sortino ratio-2.95
Upside Potential Ratio5.13
Upside part of mean4.68
Downside part of mean-7.37
Upside SD0.66
Downside SD0.91
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms66
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion-2.69
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.12
Covariance-0.05
r-0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.78
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.07
Mean Square Error1.16
DF error129
t(b)-3.28
p(b)0.67
t(a)-1.35
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.85
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.97
Treynor index (mean / b)1.51
Jensen alpha (a)-2.07
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations57
Minimum0.34
Quartile 10.99
Median1.04
Quartile 31.12
Maximum1.59
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.25
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.63
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.44
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.26
Number of observations1263
Minimum0.77
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.34
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low66
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high66
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.77
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.34
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.12
Median0.27
Quartile 30.35
Maximum0.76
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20.25
Mean of quarter 30.29
Mean of quarter 40.57
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.76
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations70
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.82
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.44
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.57
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.69
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.45
Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.06
Median0.18
Quartile 30.42
Maximum0.82
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.28
Mean of quarter 40.82
Inter Quartile Range0.36
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-322487008
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)122
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.77
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.50
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.67
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.18
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.82
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.39
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.48
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.58
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.51
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.47
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.93
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-6.58

Trading record

Placed 4957 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ROKU2126N425 short4Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021($2,806)
JD2126B107 short6Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021$94
QS2126B90 short15Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021$54
ROKU2126B600 short7Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021$333
JD2126N96 short10Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021($1,114)
TTD2126B960 short1Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021$286
ZM2126B442.5 short2Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021$227
BIDU2126B410 short4Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021$114
WYNN2126B135 short8Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021($11)
WYNN2126N118 short8Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021$205
BIDU2126N280 short4Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021$182
TTD2126N840 short1Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021($1,202)
QS2126N60 short5Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021$103
AAPL2126N126 short10Feb 19, 2021Feb 22, 2021($1,350)
ZM2126N395 short2Feb 19, 2021Feb 22, 2021($1,540)
QS2126B100 short15Feb 18, 2021Feb 22, 2021$1,794
QS long1500Jan 20, 2021Feb 22, 2021$8,994
TSLA2126N680 short1Feb 22, 2021Feb 22, 2021($751)
TWLO2119N425 short2Feb 18, 2021Feb 20, 2021$449
QS2119B90 short15Feb 18, 2021Feb 20, 2021$410
QS2119N42 short15Feb 16, 2021Feb 20, 2021$650
QS2119B95 short15Feb 18, 2021Feb 20, 2021$365
TSLA2119N745 short1Feb 16, 2021Feb 20, 2021$374
DOCU2119N250 short6Feb 16, 2021Feb 20, 2021$356
AAPL2119N130 short10Feb 16, 2021Feb 19, 2021$252
ZM2119N420 short2Feb 16, 2021Feb 19, 2021($226)
TSLA2112N760 short7Feb 8, 2021Feb 13, 2021$1,535
TSLA2105N800 short6Feb 2, 2021Feb 6, 2021$1,092
TSLA2105N750 short1Jan 28, 2021Feb 6, 2021$384
TSLA2129M760 short5Jan 26, 2021Jan 30, 2021$997

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.