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ASCENDANT TY STATIC

Futures · Started Feb 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.9%
Max Drawdown
46.7%
Trades
52
Win Trades
88.5%
Profit Factor
2.70
Win Months
7.0%

About this strategy

Ascendant TY Static primarily trades the 10 Year Treasury Note futures symbol TY, and the U.S. Dollar Index symbol DX on an opportunistic basis. The suggested minimum capital required to trade the programme is $20,000 USD.
(Some brokers use the symbol ZN for the TY)

The programme differs from Ascendant TY in that it will only trade 1 contract per signal regardless of the growth of the model account, making it easier to follow with Autotrade for accounts that are smaller than what Ascendant TY has grown to.

Please note that because TY Static will always trade only 1 contract per signal, but the model portfolio will grow as normal, your performance will differ from the model assuming you increase your contract size in increments of $20,000 USD as your account grows. Example: Once your account is $40,000 USD you could trade 200% of the programme signals with 2 contracts per signal vs. 1 if you wish, and so on.

The TY programme employs proprietary genetic algorithms and machine learning that exploit inflection points in their respective markets.

Ascendant TY systems begin with a capped subscriber base. TY is traded live by members so the fills are monitored by Cambridge and as long as it is apparent all subscribers are experiencing efficient fills and liquidity TY Static can remain open, but if there is any degradation detected, it may be closed to new subscribers at any time and a wait list established.

This description is offered for informational purposes only. A decision to become a member of Ascendant should be centered on your own circumstances and a dispassionate evaluation of Ascendant TY Static performance. Cambridge Research subscribes to the common view that alternative assets (futures trading/private equity/venture capital) should represent no more than 15-20% of your investable assets.

Thank you for your interest in Ascendant.

Cambridge Research




Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016-10.819.523.716.3-16.718.427.55.2-12.1-5.8-19.535.3
201712.90.28.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.022.9
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/5/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age129 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades52
# Profitable46
% Profitable88.5%
Avg trade duration11.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown46.7%
drawdown periodNov 09, 2016 - Dec 15, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)4.9%
Avg win$698
Avg loss$2,009

Ratios

W:L ratio2.66
Sharpe Ratio0.21
Sortino Ratio0.33
Calmar Ratio0.95

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life308.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-241.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity38.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss20.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,009
Avg Win$698
# Winners46
Sum Trade PL (losers)$12,054
Sum Trade PL (winners)$32,109
Num Months Winners9
# Losers6
% Winners88.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table128

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)17124.78
Avg Position Time (hrs)285.41
Avg Trade Length11.90
Last Trade Ago3452

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.06
Treynor Index0.24

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.08
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.22
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.17
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.07
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.24
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.24
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats96.78
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats64.44
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.35
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.34
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.40
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df25
t1.17
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio2.12
Upside Potential Ratio3.33
Upside part of mean0.64
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.48
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms18
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion0.40
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance-0.02
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.56
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error24
t(b)-0.68
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.34
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.56
Mean0.30
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df25
t0.97
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.99
Sortino ratio1.40
Upside Potential Ratio2.59
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms18
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance-0.01
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error24
t(b)-0.59
p(b)0.72
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.36
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.90
df588
t1.36
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.21
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio6.54
Upside part of mean1.65
Downside part of mean-1.28
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms133
N negative terms456
N of observations589
Mean of predictor0.66
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error587
t(b)1.02
p(b)0.16
t(a)1.23
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.86
Treynor index (mean / b)7.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
Mean0.28
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df588
t1.07
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio1.08
Upside Potential Ratio6.11
Upside part of mean1.60
Downside part of mean-1.32
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms133
N negative terms456
N of observations589
Mean of predictor0.60
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error587
t(b)1.05
p(b)0.15
t(a)0.95
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)5.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.26
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.14
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6796515162980352
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)6.39462085997683e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations26
Minimum0.79
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.49
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations589
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low105
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high133
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.09
Median0.17
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.17
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.38
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.32
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.46
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-457771584
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)36
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.47
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.79
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.45
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.37
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.95
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.55
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.54
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 234 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TY H7long4Nov 28, 2016Mar 22, 2017($99)
DX Z6short1Nov 11, 2016Dec 19, 2016($4,243)
TY Z6long4Nov 9, 2016Nov 28, 2016($6,610)
TY Z6short1Nov 8, 2016Nov 9, 2016$977
DX Z6short6Oct 3, 2016Nov 8, 2016$453
TY Z6short1Nov 2, 2016Nov 8, 2016$492
TY Z6long1Nov 1, 2016Nov 1, 2016$492
TY Z6short4Sep 21, 2016Oct 27, 2016$2,639
DX Z6short1Sep 16, 2016Sep 20, 2016$222
TY Z6long2Sep 9, 2016Sep 15, 2016$1,205
DX Z6long1Sep 8, 2016Sep 9, 2016$782
TY Z6short3Sep 6, 2016Sep 8, 2016$836
TY Z6short2Aug 22, 2016Aug 26, 2016$1,141
DX U6long3Aug 16, 2016Aug 26, 2016$386
DX Z6long1Aug 22, 2016Aug 26, 2016$447
TY U6short2Aug 9, 2016Aug 16, 2016$1,233
DX U6long1Aug 10, 2016Aug 11, 2016$348
DX U6long1Jul 29, 2016Aug 5, 2016$442
TY U6short9Jun 2, 2016Aug 5, 2016$1,463
DX U6short5Jul 4, 2016Jul 29, 2016$1,758
DX U6short1Jun 14, 2016Jun 15, 2016$262
DX U6short2Jun 10, 2016Jun 13, 2016$295
DX M6long2Jun 3, 2016Jun 10, 2016$44
TY U6long4May 24, 2016Jun 2, 2016$1,277
DX M6short3May 27, 2016Jun 1, 2016$573
DX M6long1May 26, 2016May 27, 2016$192
TY M6long3May 17, 2016May 26, 2016($1,088)
DX M6short3May 18, 2016May 26, 2016$553
DX M6short1May 13, 2016May 17, 2016$322
DX M6long1May 11, 2016May 12, 2016$292

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.