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TCT US ETFs

Equity · Stocks · Started Mar 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.7%
Max Drawdown
8.1%
Trades
190
Win Trades
73.7%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
17.5%

About this strategy

This system consists of several algorithms trading different US ETFs long only. The algorithms are uncorrelated with each other and the underlying markets. They are developed and backtested to withstand rigorous statistical tests both individually as well as a portfolio. The aim during development is the highest possible Profit Factor while keeping the performance curve as linear as possible.

MONEY & RISK MANAGEMENT:
All trades have stop losses. Not only the system as a whole but also each single algorithm is monitored weekly. Should the performance of any single algorithm start to break below the expected parameters (based on the backtests and statistical analyses) it will be removed from the system and replaced. Subscribers will always be informed of changes to the system.

Please note:
The single trades are always traded in lots of 100 (one hundred), no averaging down or pyramiding is done. Since C2 denotes all single trades that overlap in time as one and the same trade, it sometimes shows trades with rather large quantities. Thus, a trade shown by C2 to have been traded with 500 contracts, is actually 5 different trades, with different entry and exit parameters.

Please contact me for backtest and statistical data.

Momentum Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2018-2.0-2.22.20.50.72.3-0.3-0.20.5-0.41.1
20191.10.01.71.8-2.81.02.12.2-3.00.50.60.65.7
2020-0.50.1-1.8-0.12.2-1.51.10.5-0.70.00.00.0-0.8
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/13/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age103 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades190
# Profitable140
% Profitable73.7%
Avg trade duration5.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown8.1%
drawdown periodDec 12, 2018 - Dec 24, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)0.7%
Avg win$318
Avg loss$753

Ratios

W:L ratio1.25
Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Sortino Ratio-0.35
Calmar Ratio0.45

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.18
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life174.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-173.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity6.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss2.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated60.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$753
Avg Win$318
# Winners140
Sum Trade PL (losers)$37,643
Sum Trade PL (winners)$44,511
Num Months Winners19
# Losers50
% Winners73.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct2713

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table103

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8155.18
Avg Position Time (hrs)135.92
Avg Trade Length5.70
Last Trade Ago2196

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.55
Daily leverage (max)1.81

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.04
Treynor Index-0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades15.33
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.35
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats77.50
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats77.99
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.85
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.78
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.00
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.06
df36
t0.10
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.17
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.56
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms20
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.01
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error35
t(b)2.50
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.56
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean0.00
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df36
t0.04
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.14
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio1.50
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms20
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.01
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error35
t(b)3.10
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.60
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.00
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df814
t0.09
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.16
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio5.37
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms329
N negative terms486
N of observations815
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error813
t(b)4.91
p(b)0
t(a)-0.25
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0.00
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df814
t0.04
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.13
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio5.31
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms329
N negative terms486
N of observations815
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error813
t(b)4.96
p(b)0
t(a)-0.26
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.14
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6789217476673536
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.17892078368494e+33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations37
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-4.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations815
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low106
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high93
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations28
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.88
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-411300704
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)12
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.46
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.63
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.79
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.62
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.94
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QQQ long200Sep 3, 2020Sep 3, 2020($1,063)
TLT long400Aug 10, 2020Sep 2, 2020($1,184)
QQQ long100Aug 28, 2020Aug 31, 2020$119
QQQ long300Aug 19, 2020Aug 26, 2020$1,998
QQQ long400Jul 14, 2020Jul 27, 2020$679
TLT long100Jul 20, 2020Jul 21, 2020$24
SPY long100Jul 16, 2020Jul 20, 2020$305
TLT long100Jun 12, 2020Jun 29, 2020$205
SPY long200Jun 26, 2020Jun 29, 2020($554)
SPY long200Jun 16, 2020Jun 25, 2020($836)
QQQ long100Jun 18, 2020Jun 25, 2020$67
QQQ long100Jun 11, 2020Jun 11, 2020($573)
TLT long300Jun 2, 2020Jun 11, 2020($103)
QQQ long100Jun 9, 2020Jun 9, 2020$69
QQQ long100Jun 5, 2020Jun 5, 2020$131
QQQ long100Jun 2, 2020Jun 2, 2020$59
TLT long200May 27, 2020May 29, 2020$126
QQQ long100May 20, 2020May 28, 2020($27)
SPY long200May 18, 2020May 22, 2020$375
TLT long400May 18, 2020May 21, 2020$756
TLT long300May 12, 2020May 14, 2020$860
SPY long100May 11, 2020May 11, 2020$292
QQQ long100Mar 5, 2020Mar 9, 2020($1,567)
TLT long100Mar 3, 2020Mar 3, 2020$266
QQQ long100Mar 3, 2020Mar 3, 2020($567)
QQQ long200Feb 27, 2020Feb 28, 2020($1,167)
SPY long200Feb 26, 2020Feb 28, 2020($4,672)
TLT long100Feb 19, 2020Feb 21, 2020$264
QQQ long100Feb 14, 2020Feb 18, 2020$63
QQQ long100Feb 12, 2020Feb 12, 2020$32

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.