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Test Unmanaged Strategy

Stocks · Started Dec 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-5.9%
Max Drawdown
60.4%
Trades
116
Win Trades
47.4%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
13.2%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201722.322.3
2018-2.513.5-5.216.60.1-8.82.3-3.6-0.8-2.2-2.2-1.92.5
20194.60.9-0.52.92.5-0.43.76.9-1.210.512.8-0.050.6
2020-4.5-53.50.7-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-55.3
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/1/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age108 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades116
# Profitable55
% Profitable47.4%
Avg trade duration2.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown60.4%
drawdown periodJan 29, 2020 - Feb 28, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-5.9%
Avg win$2,189
Avg loss$2,073

Ratios

W:L ratio0.95
Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Sortino Ratio-0.19
Calmar Ratio-0.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.13
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life189.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-19.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-5.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity129.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss17.5%
Chance of 20% account loss2.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)408
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)843
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)653

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,073
Avg Win$2,189
# Winners55
Sum Trade PL (losers)$126,429
Sum Trade PL (winners)$120,411
Num Months Winners14
# Losers61
% Winners47.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table107

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3905.17
Avg Position Time (hrs)65.09
Avg Trade Length2.70
Last Trade Ago2407

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.74
Daily leverage (max)1.26

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.10
Treynor Index-0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-32.32
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.36
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats12.05
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats10.75
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.32
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.02
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.04
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df27
t0.14
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio0.11
Upside Potential Ratio1.12
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms13
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.09
r0.73
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error26
t(b)5.40
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.02
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)0.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
Mean-0.08
SD0.55
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.14
df27
t-0.23
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.14
Sortino ratio-0.16
Upside Potential Ratio0.75
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.50
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms13
N of observations28
Mean of predictor-0.01
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.55
Covariance0.15
r0.84
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error26
t(b)7.76
p(b)0
t(a)-0.31
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.28
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean-0.04
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.15
df613
t-0.23
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.13
Sortino ratio-0.18
Upside Potential Ratio3.80
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.93
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms193
N negative terms421
N of observations614
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error612
t(b)5.23
p(b)0
t(a)-0.27
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.18
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.08
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.28
df613
t-0.43
p0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00
Sortino ratio-0.32
Upside Potential Ratio3.50
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.96
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms193
N negative terms421
N of observations614
Mean of predictor-0.00
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error612
t(b)5.20
p(b)0
t(a)-0.44
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-1.19
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.52
df130
t-1.79
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Sortino ratio-2.58
Upside Potential Ratio1.15
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-1.72
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms105
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.07
Mean of criterion-1.19
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance0.04
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.18
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error129
t(b)2.28
p(b)0.38
t(a)-1.80
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.57
Jensen alpha (a)-1.18
Mean-1.32
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.57
df130
t-1.83
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.22
Sortino ratio-2.62
Upside Potential Ratio1.05
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-1.84
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.50
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms105
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.16
Mean of criterion-1.32
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance0.04
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.28
Mean Square Error0.25
DF error129
t(b)2.25
p(b)0.38
t(a)-1.81
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.81
Jensen alpha (a)-1.28
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations28
Minimum0.47
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.28
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.47
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.91
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations614
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low85
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high102
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high31
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.87
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.04
Median0.10
Quartile 30.25
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.15
Mean of quarter 40.54
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.56
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.40
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.38
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.56
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.56
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.56
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-263763392
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)30
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.19
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.43
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.95
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.72
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.29
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-10.74

Trading record

Placed 143 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VXX short6541Feb 18, 2020Mar 3, 2020($49,779)
VXX short3748Feb 4, 2020Feb 6, 2020$1,906
VXX short6675Jan 3, 2020Jan 30, 2020($4,244)
VXX short5700Nov 22, 2019Nov 26, 2019$6,550
VXX short5095Nov 11, 2019Nov 20, 2019$4,224
VXX short4555Oct 31, 2019Oct 31, 2019($2,055)
VXX short4123Oct 21, 2019Oct 28, 2019$3,664
VXX short4123Oct 16, 2019Oct 18, 2019($417)
VXX short3450Oct 11, 2019Oct 15, 2019$6,964
VXX short3450Oct 9, 2019Oct 10, 2019($143)
VXX short3802Sep 27, 2019Sep 27, 2019($3,693)
VXX short3802Sep 25, 2019Sep 26, 2019($1,982)
VXX short3602Sep 17, 2019Sep 18, 2019($1,050)
VXX short3500Sep 10, 2019Sep 16, 2019$3,320
VXX short3362Sep 5, 2019Sep 9, 2019$2,483
VXX short3200Aug 29, 2019Aug 30, 2019($741)
VXX short2410Aug 26, 2019Aug 27, 2019$1,152
VXX short2533Aug 19, 2019Aug 22, 2019$1,793
VXX short2515Aug 13, 2019Aug 13, 2019($684)
VXX long2355Aug 9, 2019Aug 9, 2019($1,112)
VXX short2355Aug 7, 2019Aug 8, 2019$4,587
VXX short3029Jul 23, 2019Jul 30, 2019$419
VXX short3046Jul 19, 2019Jul 19, 2019($949)
VXX short2983Jul 12, 2019Jul 17, 2019$25
VXX short2200Jun 27, 2019Jul 1, 2019$3,911
VXX short2403Jun 10, 2019Jun 11, 2019($1,054)
VXX short2258May 21, 2019May 23, 2019($2,628)
VXX short2258May 21, 2019May 21, 2019($163)
VXX short2314May 16, 2019May 16, 2019$1,083
VXX short2217May 15, 2019May 15, 2019$704

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.