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BlackAce

Equity · Stocks · Started Sep 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.5%
Max Drawdown
50.5%
Trades
74
Win Trades
52.7%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
32.2%

About this strategy

BlackAce now focuses trades on NASDAQ leverage ETF TQQQ, BlackAce employs analytical quantitative and directional analysis of markets along with liquidity, and alternative strategies to make its trades and investments.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20161.0-3.31.5-1.6-2.5
20173.58.9-0.1-0.34.6-0.99.01.0-8.04.73.5-3.423.5
201831.6-9.64.61.34.91.74.911.0-7.2-2.2-7.80.031.2
20192.66.31.68.1-1.12.3-1.50.0-5.6-0.02.77.724.5
20207.0-2.5-0.75.01.02.84.02.4-1.96.8-6.42.821.2
2021-0.42.8-13.88.6-3.111.4-2.61.3-2.69.22.4-17.8-8.4
2022-9.4-4.71.5-10.00.0-12.21.10.00.00.00.0-3.5-32.3
20230.00.0-4.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-4.8
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/21/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age122 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades74
# Profitable39
% Profitable52.7%
Avg trade duration15.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown50.5%
drawdown periodNov 22, 2021 - July 14, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)3.5%
Avg win$891
Avg loss$853

Ratios

W:L ratio1.16
Sharpe Ratio0.15
Sortino Ratio0.21
Calmar Ratio0.13

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.21
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life259.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-212.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity98.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss51.0%
Chance of 20% account loss24.0%
Chance of 30% account loss8.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)481
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$853
Avg Win$891
# Winners39
Sum Trade PL (losers)$29,847
Sum Trade PL (winners)$34,760
Num Months Winners39
# Losers35
% Winners52.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct9

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table121

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)22436.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)373.94
Avg Trade Length15.60
Last Trade Ago1288

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.96
Daily leverage (max)3.50

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.15
Treynor Index0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.13
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.39
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.33
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats19.11
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.69
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.24
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.10
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.05
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df80
t0.65
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00
Sortino ratio0.40
Upside Potential Ratio2.07
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms45
N of observations81
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error79
t(b)2.29
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.10
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.03
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.15
df80
t0.40
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.91
Sortino ratio0.23
Upside Potential Ratio1.85
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms45
N of observations81
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error79
t(b)2.39
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.13
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.04
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.28
df1768
t0.73
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.04
Sortino ratio0.39
Upside Potential Ratio6.11
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms532
N negative terms1237
N of observations1769
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1767
t(b)8.96
p(b)0.37
t(a)0.28
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean0.03
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.21
df1768
t0.54
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.96
Sortino ratio0.28
Upside Potential Ratio5.97
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms532
N negative terms1237
N of observations1769
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1767
t(b)8.94
p(b)0.37
t(a)0.15
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.35
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.28
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6715898626834432
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)4.89134578180243e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations81
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations1769
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low333
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high340
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations12
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.04
Median0.06
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.45
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.30
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.44
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations44
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.47
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-419023520
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)234
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.13
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.54
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.13
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.44
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.21
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 126 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long300Mar 3, 2023Mar 10, 2023($702)
TQQQ long200Dec 1, 2022Dec 6, 2022($536)
TQQQ long300Jul 8, 2022Jul 25, 2022$171
TQQQ long300Jun 2, 2022Jun 10, 2022($2,100)
TQQQ long200Mar 24, 2022Apr 11, 2022($1,626)
TQQQ long200Feb 16, 2022Feb 17, 2022($921)
TQQQ long100Dec 27, 2021Jan 6, 2022($2,705)
TQQQ long125Dec 10, 2021Dec 20, 2021($2,938)
TQQQ long150Oct 18, 2021Dec 3, 2021$1,693
TQQQ long75Aug 23, 2021Sep 20, 2021($120)
TQQQ long150Jul 23, 2021Aug 18, 2021($657)
TQQQ long200May 24, 2021Jul 19, 2021$2,493
TQQQ long200Apr 1, 2021May 4, 2021$960
TQQQ long200Mar 22, 2021Mar 25, 2021($1,756)
TQQQ long200Mar 16, 2021Mar 18, 2021($1,608)
TQQQ long100Feb 1, 2021Feb 9, 2021$677
TQQQ long200Jan 20, 2021Jan 22, 2021$376
TQQQ long100Jan 7, 2021Jan 12, 2021($476)
TQQQ long100Dec 28, 2020Dec 31, 2020$16
TQQQ long100Dec 14, 2020Dec 21, 2020$427
TQQQ long100Nov 24, 2020Dec 9, 2020$909
TQQQ long100Nov 13, 2020Nov 23, 2020($456)
TQQQ long100Nov 5, 2020Nov 10, 2020($1,833)
TQQQ long120Oct 8, 2020Oct 16, 2020$1,583
TQQQ long100Aug 13, 2020Sep 3, 2020$1,041
TQQQ long140Aug 5, 2020Aug 11, 2020($944)
TQQQ long150Jul 20, 2020Jul 23, 2020($950)
TQQQ long150Jun 30, 2020Jul 15, 2020$1,780
TQQQ long150May 28, 2020Jun 11, 2020$612
TQQQ long100Apr 6, 2020May 27, 2020$1,853

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.